I may be only previewing the one match this weekend with a view to investing at value;
Brisbane Roar $1.60
Draw $3.75
Newcastle Jets $5.25
Once again here we see Brisbane Roar at a very short quote at their home of Suncorp Stadium. It isn't warranted though because they haven't managed to establish anywhere near the consistency of the past 2 seasons, and find themselves languishing near the bottom of the table, certainly not a familiar place for them to be. They have only scored 6 times in their past 5 matches (4 in one game) and have conceded far too many (10) in the process. And they have lost 2 of their last 3 home matches.
Defensively they could have major problems with Captain Matt Smith and fellow defender Ivan Franjic away on Socceroos duty. That is a massive hole to fill and one of the replacements could be Matt Jurman who hasn't been in great form of late.
Added to that this has to be the most bizarre matchup in the A-League with this fixture only providing 1 win for the home side (Brisbane) in 11 games. Even worse, only 2 others have been drawn with a total of 8 losses. Interestingly 6 of those have been 1-0 losses! Coincidentally when looking at the reverse fixture in Newcastle it is an almost identical situtation with the home side (Newcastle) winning only 1 of 12 with 4 draws and 7 losses.
Newcastle are probably the only A-League team this week to field a full squad unaffected by call ups to National duty. They have had no trouble scoring so far this year but also have struggled to plug the gaps at the other end of the park . You'd have to say that they are far better placed coming into this fixture than on most other occasions in the past few seasons, and with a better and more experienced squad. So they should come North feeling very confident of taking the 3 points especially after their fighting performance of last week, coming from behind to snatch a 3-3 draw against Melbourne Heart, also on the road.
At $5.25+ they are tremendous value of causing an upset here. A draw is a big possibility but once again the $4.10 required (only approximately 25% of Soccer games world wide are drawn) isn't offered as yet and is highly doubful to be.
Newcastle Jets 1-0 is being offered @ $13 so that too might be worth a speculator.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
A-League Round 7 (2012-2013)
Brisbane Roar $1.67
Draw $3.75
Sydney FC $4.75
History;
23 Matches- Brisbane 9 wins, Sydney 6 wins with 8 draws.
This is an outstanding fixture for Brisbane Roar who have beaten the Sydneysiders 6 times in succession at this venue and have won 7 of the last 10 clashes home and away.
Squad Changes;
Besart Berisha returns for the home team whilst Sydney also have the promising youngster Joel Chianese available for selection. Mitch Malia is rested for Sydney and Terry Antonis is unavailable due to Young Socceroos commitments.
Form;
Both teams are really struggling atm with Brisbane having lost 3 on the trot and Sydney suffering 2 morale sapping defeats in their past 2 matches, conceding 10 goals in the process.
Preview;
This is really a must win for Brisbane who need to reignite their season after completely losing their way in recent weeks. Everything looked rosy after round 2, business as usual it seemed after an impressive 5-0 demolition of Melbourne Victory in Round 2. That was a bit of a grudge match for the Roar who may have raised their level a couple of notches in the presence of former coach Ange Postecoglou, who had a slightly acrimonious departure at the end of last season.
This could well be a grudge match too with Besart Berisha (the Albanian Beast!) set to lock horns once again with Pascal Bosschaart of Sydney FC who only returned from injury last week. Who could forget the last clash between these 2 sides and the melee that erupted after the miraculous and dramatic come from behind late win in January.
Whether that gives Brisbane a psyhological edge in this one is debatable. It may be just as likely to spur Sydney on and this matchup does give on the feel of a local Derby, where neither side is likely to give an inch.
This is a better offensive Sydney unit this time around with Del Pierro and the slick Panamanian striker Yairo Yau almost certain to cause problems for them defensively. Joel Chianese didn't play in that last encounter and neither did the likes of Ali Abaas, Paul Reid or even goalkeeper Ivan Nicevski.
The problem for Sydney lies in defence and it was pretty much their Achilles heel all last season too. On the bright side for them Brisbane have only scored once in their past 3 matches so they have little to fear coming into this clash. They are a team in a bit of turmoil though. No current coach after the shock departure of Ian Crook and they have been abysmal without Del Pierro on the pitch in their past 2 matches. He didn't play in the slaughter against Central Coast and all 3 goals were scored after he was replaced last week against Melbourne Victory. To get out of this one unscathed they will need their iconic player to see out nearly all of this one you'd suspect.
Brisbane must surely drop defender Matt Jurman for this one after his ordinary showing last week. He was found wanting in 3 of the goals scored against them and Brisbane need to be more resilient in this against a pretty potent Sydney attack that has scored 4 times in their past 2 matches.
Tip;
This looks like a good opportunity for Brisbane to get back on track providing their is no more complacency and they play to somewhere near their full potential. There is a danger that the desire is no longer there after back to back championship titles but they did receive a timely wake up call last week in Melbourne which should steel them for this one. Historically there is only one team who can win though it might pay to remember that Syney did have them on toast in this same fixture last season before that dramatic finale.
Bet advice;
History aside there is no way in the wide world that the disparity in odds between these 2 is justified. Brisbane haven't won in 3 and were soundly beaten last week whilst Sydney did have 3 points in the bag last week before surrendering late. $5 is available about them with some operators (Unitab prices shown) and is certainly more than sufficient value for an away team. The draw isn't enough value to take so Sydney to win at that price will have to do me.
Adelaide Utd $1.85
Draw $3.40
Melbourne Heart $4.10
History;
6 Matches- Adelaide 3 wins, Heart 1 win with 2 draws.
Adelaide have failed to beat Heart at home though in last 3 matches, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Squad Changes;
Sergio Van Dijk returns for Adelaide and Antony Golec returns from injury.
Form;
Adelaide sit as equal leader and have been very solid over the first 6 rounds losing only once. Of their last 3 matches they have won 2 and drew against Perth last week.
Melbourne Heart returned to form last week with a 4-1 surprise thumping of Brisbane Roar at home. That was only their 2nd win of the season and followed 3 consecutive losses.
Preview;
Adelaide have made a great start to the season off the back of a successful Asian Champions League campaign that began at the end of last season and ended at the start of this one. Ever since coach John "The Messiah" Kosmina returned to the fold last season Adelaide have been a far different proposition to the one that started that season as A-League favourites, and failed to flatter. They now have self belief and a system that fits their current squad. Dario Vidosic is a far more influential player this year to last and being fully fit is probably the reason why. The Argentinian Jeronimo up front has been a revelation, and the squad now has considerable depth particularly in attacking sense with the likes of Van Dijk, Djite and Iain Ramsay being interchanged as the coach sees fit. The defence has stability and there is always the chance that captain and goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic will pull off a miracle save or two if required.
I wouldn't say the team is in sparkling form at the moment off a slightly fortunate win against Brisbane (when they did park the Bus!) and a less than convincing draw against Perth last week. That game could have gone either way and once again Adelaide played an open enough game at Hindmarsh to reward the away team if they were good enough. As it turned out Perth weren't quite.
Melbourne Heart should take a lot out of their win against the current champions last week and they do tend to be a confidence team. It was a very significant win because it was their first win in a long time without their mercurial captain Fred who continues his horror run with injury.
They may well have found the solution in Richard Garcia. The former Hull and Socerroos midfielder had an absolute blinder last week in an attacking sense and looks a perfect foil for the more defensive minded Matt Thompson (though he can be effective in attack too). Import Josip Tadic up front was very influential last week and on may well be the signing of the season. It is doubtful there is a forward in this League that has a better touch or quicker brain on what we saw last week. And he can score at will and give quality service to fellow attackers. Great to see David Williams come off the bench last week and finish his goal with some aplomb. Perhaps he too is about to realise his early potential.
Clint Bolton is ever reliable in goal, and great on crosses, and with 2 exciting fullbacks in Aziz Behich (returning from Socceroos duty) & Michael Marrone they are always a threat to opposing defences. As a whole the team can run a bit hot and cold and the self belief is questionable at times, but they often do often relish the underdog tag which exists here. They have already claimed the big scalps of Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar in their 2 wins this season.
Tip;
Because Adelaide just might have played themselves a bit out of form last week (and possibly against Brisbane in an attacking sense) and Heart doing quite the opposite last week I can smell a bit of an upset is on the cards here. The likes of Garcia and Tadic were so impressive last week that it is hard not to see them carrying that form into this game. Adelaide are certainly beatable at home at the best of times so the Melbourne side need not die wondering here. They need to match what Adelaide throw at them or better still go on the offensive. If they do that I feel they can come away with the spoils but if they sit back and try to absorb too much pressure they might come unstuck.
Bet advice;
Once again their is a disproportionate look to the market here with Adelaide massive favourites to win because they are at home. The odds represent no value for a home team whilst the $4.00+ odds about the away team is very generous especially given the fact that they are coming off an impressive win last week and do have a good record here in recent times. I'm very happy to invest on Heart at that price.
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Draw $3.35
Central Coast Mariners $2.55
History;
21 matches- Victory 9 wins, Central Coast 7 wins with 5 draws. Niether of these teams have an outstanding record at home against each other with Victory 4/10 & Central Coast 4/11 which is quite a bit less than the norm.
Squad changes;
Matthew Foschini, Theo Markelis, Isaka Cernak & Jimmy Jeggo are all available for Melbourne Victory selection.
Adriano Pellegrino, Oliver Bozanic,. Brad McDonald Mitchell Duke & Adam Kwasnik return to the fold for Central Coast whilst Troy Hearfield misses out.
Preview;
Both sides come into this match in great form with Victory buoyed by an unexpected late win against Sydney last week which came off the back of a good home win against poor Melbourne travellers Wellington Phoenix. Under Ange Postecoglous' tutelage they are now starting to find some form and rhythm, and with that surely comes a large dose of self belief. They were probably a bit flattered last week with Sydney completely collapsing in the last 20 minutes of the match to succumb late but nevertheless it is always a filip for any team to win as they did. This is the acid test for them so far this season against an in form Central Coast team who put 7 past the same Sydney opppositon (with Del Pierro) the prior week, and then crossed the Tasman to once again put Wellington to the sword at their otherwise fortress like Westpac stadium. They are certainly the form side of the moment and come into this one with an overall +7 goal difference compared to the -4 of Victory.
The home side do grow a leg in front of an always abundant home crowd so this is no easy task for the Gosford side and they haven't won here since November 2009.
Victory have been potent in attack all season with Thompson & Rojas carving out chances at will in most games. Marcos Flores & Gui Finkler are starting to find some touch in midfield and I really can't find enough superlatives to describe the work of Adama Traore at left back. He has been sensational all season and was just immense last week against Sydney. He has one hell of an engine and his overlapping runs down the left wing in attack are going to wear a lot of teams down this season. He just keeps coming similar to Aziz Behich of Melbourne Heart but he is a slightly more robust unit.
Central Coast still don't really have a truly reconised Central Striker but Daniel Macbreen is doing an amazing job at present and the midfield trio of Hutchinson, McGlinchey & Rogic are servicing him well ably supported by their 2 overlapping fullbacks Josh Rose and Pedg Bojic. They are a team in the true sense of the word and very well drilled by coach Graham Arnold. Victory don't have the same cohesion and team spirit as their opposition and will need all the individual flair and guile of Flores, Finkler & Torres to get them over the line here.
Tip;
I'm finding it really hard to come to a conclusion on just who will win this game. It really could go either way with history no real help and the current form of both is hard to fault. I'm going for a draw and it should be an entertaining one.
Bet Advice;
If you must then take comfort in the fact that Melbourne Victory are statistically good value for a home team. The price for a draw and away win here don't cut the mustard so the home team it is!.
Newcastle Jets $1.82
Draw $3.40
Wellington Phoenix $4.25
History;
16 Matches- Newcastle 4 wins, Wellington 11 wins with only 1 draw. Last result this fixture 0-1.
Wellington have won 4 of the last 5 matches between the 2 teams though 4 of them have been in NZ.
Overall this fixture 3 wins a piece. Draws are indeed a rarity between these two.
Squad Changes;
Bernardo Robeira, Sam Galloway & Marco Jesic are available for Newcastle selection but Jacob Pepper & Taylor Regan are unavailable due to suspension.
Wellington Phoenix have Roicardo Clarke available for this one with no omissions but have several players returning from national duty for New Zealand after a midweek match in China.
Preview;
Newcastle come into this game flying high, 3rd on the table with 2 wins from their last 3 matches. They are equal top scorers in the League but have conceded quite a few more than the 2 teams above them (10 compared to 4). Emile Heskey has been sensational thus far netting 5 goals with fellow Striker Ryan Griffiths alo thriving without the burden of having to shoulder the load up front. Craig Goodwin has been exceptional at left back since signing from Melbourne Heart and James Virgili has been a revelation wide on the right. With experienced campaigners Jobe Wheelhouse and Ruben Zadkovich shoring up the midfield the attacking trio are getting well and truly enough service to be effective at present.
Wellington in contrast come to this fixture in lamentable form losing 3 on the trot though it was certainly no disgrace to go down to the high flying Mariners by 1 goal even if they were at home. Strange that fixture is always a poor one for them but conversely this is nearly always a good one. Being essentially poor travellers they will come to Newastle with the knowledge that this is a good matchup for them and they certainly have the Personel to do enough damage if they can find their best form. The likes of Ifill, Huysegems and Jeremy Brockie up front spell danger to a Newcastle squad that could be complacent. Always solid at the back with Ben Sigmund & Andrew Durante calling the shots it will be up to the midfield to ensure enough supply to their potent attack if they hope to come away with the spoils in this one. That could be a problem as they do seem a bit light on in regard to experience and quality though Louis Fenton did impress early on this season.
Tip;
Though Newcastle have a poor record against Wellington overall they couldn't have met them at a better time this season. They are ticking along nicely and there is a concern that fatigue might set in from some of the Nzers who played in China during the week. Heskey is a key figure for them now and they are a far better side all round this season compared to the last couple. Hard to believe they won't nake the finals this season and they are normally a very strong unit at home and they should just about get away with this one.
Bet Advice;
Once again a dilemma with Wellington being massively underrated in the market and home team. Newcastle absolutely no value at all. Bet Wellington at value odds and hope they hit their straps, and for Newcastle to have an off day. The Newcastle defence has been porous so if Phoenix can hold firm, you never know what might happen.
Draw $3.75
Sydney FC $4.75
History;
23 Matches- Brisbane 9 wins, Sydney 6 wins with 8 draws.
This is an outstanding fixture for Brisbane Roar who have beaten the Sydneysiders 6 times in succession at this venue and have won 7 of the last 10 clashes home and away.
Squad Changes;
Besart Berisha returns for the home team whilst Sydney also have the promising youngster Joel Chianese available for selection. Mitch Malia is rested for Sydney and Terry Antonis is unavailable due to Young Socceroos commitments.
Form;
Both teams are really struggling atm with Brisbane having lost 3 on the trot and Sydney suffering 2 morale sapping defeats in their past 2 matches, conceding 10 goals in the process.
Preview;
This is really a must win for Brisbane who need to reignite their season after completely losing their way in recent weeks. Everything looked rosy after round 2, business as usual it seemed after an impressive 5-0 demolition of Melbourne Victory in Round 2. That was a bit of a grudge match for the Roar who may have raised their level a couple of notches in the presence of former coach Ange Postecoglou, who had a slightly acrimonious departure at the end of last season.
This could well be a grudge match too with Besart Berisha (the Albanian Beast!) set to lock horns once again with Pascal Bosschaart of Sydney FC who only returned from injury last week. Who could forget the last clash between these 2 sides and the melee that erupted after the miraculous and dramatic come from behind late win in January.
Whether that gives Brisbane a psyhological edge in this one is debatable. It may be just as likely to spur Sydney on and this matchup does give on the feel of a local Derby, where neither side is likely to give an inch.
This is a better offensive Sydney unit this time around with Del Pierro and the slick Panamanian striker Yairo Yau almost certain to cause problems for them defensively. Joel Chianese didn't play in that last encounter and neither did the likes of Ali Abaas, Paul Reid or even goalkeeper Ivan Nicevski.
The problem for Sydney lies in defence and it was pretty much their Achilles heel all last season too. On the bright side for them Brisbane have only scored once in their past 3 matches so they have little to fear coming into this clash. They are a team in a bit of turmoil though. No current coach after the shock departure of Ian Crook and they have been abysmal without Del Pierro on the pitch in their past 2 matches. He didn't play in the slaughter against Central Coast and all 3 goals were scored after he was replaced last week against Melbourne Victory. To get out of this one unscathed they will need their iconic player to see out nearly all of this one you'd suspect.
Brisbane must surely drop defender Matt Jurman for this one after his ordinary showing last week. He was found wanting in 3 of the goals scored against them and Brisbane need to be more resilient in this against a pretty potent Sydney attack that has scored 4 times in their past 2 matches.
Tip;
This looks like a good opportunity for Brisbane to get back on track providing their is no more complacency and they play to somewhere near their full potential. There is a danger that the desire is no longer there after back to back championship titles but they did receive a timely wake up call last week in Melbourne which should steel them for this one. Historically there is only one team who can win though it might pay to remember that Syney did have them on toast in this same fixture last season before that dramatic finale.
Bet advice;
History aside there is no way in the wide world that the disparity in odds between these 2 is justified. Brisbane haven't won in 3 and were soundly beaten last week whilst Sydney did have 3 points in the bag last week before surrendering late. $5 is available about them with some operators (Unitab prices shown) and is certainly more than sufficient value for an away team. The draw isn't enough value to take so Sydney to win at that price will have to do me.
Adelaide Utd $1.85
Draw $3.40
Melbourne Heart $4.10
History;
6 Matches- Adelaide 3 wins, Heart 1 win with 2 draws.
Adelaide have failed to beat Heart at home though in last 3 matches, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Squad Changes;
Sergio Van Dijk returns for Adelaide and Antony Golec returns from injury.
Form;
Adelaide sit as equal leader and have been very solid over the first 6 rounds losing only once. Of their last 3 matches they have won 2 and drew against Perth last week.
Melbourne Heart returned to form last week with a 4-1 surprise thumping of Brisbane Roar at home. That was only their 2nd win of the season and followed 3 consecutive losses.
Preview;
Adelaide have made a great start to the season off the back of a successful Asian Champions League campaign that began at the end of last season and ended at the start of this one. Ever since coach John "The Messiah" Kosmina returned to the fold last season Adelaide have been a far different proposition to the one that started that season as A-League favourites, and failed to flatter. They now have self belief and a system that fits their current squad. Dario Vidosic is a far more influential player this year to last and being fully fit is probably the reason why. The Argentinian Jeronimo up front has been a revelation, and the squad now has considerable depth particularly in attacking sense with the likes of Van Dijk, Djite and Iain Ramsay being interchanged as the coach sees fit. The defence has stability and there is always the chance that captain and goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic will pull off a miracle save or two if required.
I wouldn't say the team is in sparkling form at the moment off a slightly fortunate win against Brisbane (when they did park the Bus!) and a less than convincing draw against Perth last week. That game could have gone either way and once again Adelaide played an open enough game at Hindmarsh to reward the away team if they were good enough. As it turned out Perth weren't quite.
Melbourne Heart should take a lot out of their win against the current champions last week and they do tend to be a confidence team. It was a very significant win because it was their first win in a long time without their mercurial captain Fred who continues his horror run with injury.
They may well have found the solution in Richard Garcia. The former Hull and Socerroos midfielder had an absolute blinder last week in an attacking sense and looks a perfect foil for the more defensive minded Matt Thompson (though he can be effective in attack too). Import Josip Tadic up front was very influential last week and on may well be the signing of the season. It is doubtful there is a forward in this League that has a better touch or quicker brain on what we saw last week. And he can score at will and give quality service to fellow attackers. Great to see David Williams come off the bench last week and finish his goal with some aplomb. Perhaps he too is about to realise his early potential.
Clint Bolton is ever reliable in goal, and great on crosses, and with 2 exciting fullbacks in Aziz Behich (returning from Socceroos duty) & Michael Marrone they are always a threat to opposing defences. As a whole the team can run a bit hot and cold and the self belief is questionable at times, but they often do often relish the underdog tag which exists here. They have already claimed the big scalps of Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar in their 2 wins this season.
Tip;
Because Adelaide just might have played themselves a bit out of form last week (and possibly against Brisbane in an attacking sense) and Heart doing quite the opposite last week I can smell a bit of an upset is on the cards here. The likes of Garcia and Tadic were so impressive last week that it is hard not to see them carrying that form into this game. Adelaide are certainly beatable at home at the best of times so the Melbourne side need not die wondering here. They need to match what Adelaide throw at them or better still go on the offensive. If they do that I feel they can come away with the spoils but if they sit back and try to absorb too much pressure they might come unstuck.
Bet advice;
Once again their is a disproportionate look to the market here with Adelaide massive favourites to win because they are at home. The odds represent no value for a home team whilst the $4.00+ odds about the away team is very generous especially given the fact that they are coming off an impressive win last week and do have a good record here in recent times. I'm very happy to invest on Heart at that price.
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Draw $3.35
Central Coast Mariners $2.55
History;
21 matches- Victory 9 wins, Central Coast 7 wins with 5 draws. Niether of these teams have an outstanding record at home against each other with Victory 4/10 & Central Coast 4/11 which is quite a bit less than the norm.
Squad changes;
Matthew Foschini, Theo Markelis, Isaka Cernak & Jimmy Jeggo are all available for Melbourne Victory selection.
Adriano Pellegrino, Oliver Bozanic,. Brad McDonald Mitchell Duke & Adam Kwasnik return to the fold for Central Coast whilst Troy Hearfield misses out.
Preview;
Both sides come into this match in great form with Victory buoyed by an unexpected late win against Sydney last week which came off the back of a good home win against poor Melbourne travellers Wellington Phoenix. Under Ange Postecoglous' tutelage they are now starting to find some form and rhythm, and with that surely comes a large dose of self belief. They were probably a bit flattered last week with Sydney completely collapsing in the last 20 minutes of the match to succumb late but nevertheless it is always a filip for any team to win as they did. This is the acid test for them so far this season against an in form Central Coast team who put 7 past the same Sydney opppositon (with Del Pierro) the prior week, and then crossed the Tasman to once again put Wellington to the sword at their otherwise fortress like Westpac stadium. They are certainly the form side of the moment and come into this one with an overall +7 goal difference compared to the -4 of Victory.
The home side do grow a leg in front of an always abundant home crowd so this is no easy task for the Gosford side and they haven't won here since November 2009.
Victory have been potent in attack all season with Thompson & Rojas carving out chances at will in most games. Marcos Flores & Gui Finkler are starting to find some touch in midfield and I really can't find enough superlatives to describe the work of Adama Traore at left back. He has been sensational all season and was just immense last week against Sydney. He has one hell of an engine and his overlapping runs down the left wing in attack are going to wear a lot of teams down this season. He just keeps coming similar to Aziz Behich of Melbourne Heart but he is a slightly more robust unit.
Central Coast still don't really have a truly reconised Central Striker but Daniel Macbreen is doing an amazing job at present and the midfield trio of Hutchinson, McGlinchey & Rogic are servicing him well ably supported by their 2 overlapping fullbacks Josh Rose and Pedg Bojic. They are a team in the true sense of the word and very well drilled by coach Graham Arnold. Victory don't have the same cohesion and team spirit as their opposition and will need all the individual flair and guile of Flores, Finkler & Torres to get them over the line here.
Tip;
I'm finding it really hard to come to a conclusion on just who will win this game. It really could go either way with history no real help and the current form of both is hard to fault. I'm going for a draw and it should be an entertaining one.
Bet Advice;
If you must then take comfort in the fact that Melbourne Victory are statistically good value for a home team. The price for a draw and away win here don't cut the mustard so the home team it is!.
Newcastle Jets $1.82
Draw $3.40
Wellington Phoenix $4.25
History;
16 Matches- Newcastle 4 wins, Wellington 11 wins with only 1 draw. Last result this fixture 0-1.
Wellington have won 4 of the last 5 matches between the 2 teams though 4 of them have been in NZ.
Overall this fixture 3 wins a piece. Draws are indeed a rarity between these two.
Squad Changes;
Bernardo Robeira, Sam Galloway & Marco Jesic are available for Newcastle selection but Jacob Pepper & Taylor Regan are unavailable due to suspension.
Wellington Phoenix have Roicardo Clarke available for this one with no omissions but have several players returning from national duty for New Zealand after a midweek match in China.
Preview;
Newcastle come into this game flying high, 3rd on the table with 2 wins from their last 3 matches. They are equal top scorers in the League but have conceded quite a few more than the 2 teams above them (10 compared to 4). Emile Heskey has been sensational thus far netting 5 goals with fellow Striker Ryan Griffiths alo thriving without the burden of having to shoulder the load up front. Craig Goodwin has been exceptional at left back since signing from Melbourne Heart and James Virgili has been a revelation wide on the right. With experienced campaigners Jobe Wheelhouse and Ruben Zadkovich shoring up the midfield the attacking trio are getting well and truly enough service to be effective at present.
Wellington in contrast come to this fixture in lamentable form losing 3 on the trot though it was certainly no disgrace to go down to the high flying Mariners by 1 goal even if they were at home. Strange that fixture is always a poor one for them but conversely this is nearly always a good one. Being essentially poor travellers they will come to Newastle with the knowledge that this is a good matchup for them and they certainly have the Personel to do enough damage if they can find their best form. The likes of Ifill, Huysegems and Jeremy Brockie up front spell danger to a Newcastle squad that could be complacent. Always solid at the back with Ben Sigmund & Andrew Durante calling the shots it will be up to the midfield to ensure enough supply to their potent attack if they hope to come away with the spoils in this one. That could be a problem as they do seem a bit light on in regard to experience and quality though Louis Fenton did impress early on this season.
Tip;
Though Newcastle have a poor record against Wellington overall they couldn't have met them at a better time this season. They are ticking along nicely and there is a concern that fatigue might set in from some of the Nzers who played in China during the week. Heskey is a key figure for them now and they are a far better side all round this season compared to the last couple. Hard to believe they won't nake the finals this season and they are normally a very strong unit at home and they should just about get away with this one.
Bet Advice;
Once again a dilemma with Wellington being massively underrated in the market and home team. Newcastle absolutely no value at all. Bet Wellington at value odds and hope they hit their straps, and for Newcastle to have an off day. The Newcastle defence has been porous so if Phoenix can hold firm, you never know what might happen.
Friday, November 9, 2012
A-League Round 6 2012
Melbourne Heart $3.30
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar $2.10
This is quite a tough game to predict with both teams travelling poorly and missing a key player each. Heart still without Fred and Brisbane having to do without their prolific scorer Besart Berisha.
I can't remember Heart winning a game with Fred the past season and a bit so their chances look a bit forlorn in turning things around tonight against quality opposition.
Historically Brisbane have the better of things with 3 wins from 5 but there has been very little between these 2 teams the past 4 times they have met (1 drawn and only a goal separating in other 3) since the inaugaral clash where Brisbane comfortably won 4-0. Even during Brisbanes' championship dominance the past 2 years they have failed to establish any real superiority over their Melbourne rivals.
Interesting to see how Brisbane cope without Berisha because there is no logical replacement and this is a team that has failed to score in it's past 2 matches.
System Bet- Brisbane are way too short for an away side to contemplate an investment. Melbourne Heart certainly are backable and better odds can be attained if you shop around (up to $3.75). So 'Systematically' they are very good value for a home side.
The problem is I just can't see them winning against quality opposition (who can dominate possession) without their best player yet again.
Tip- Either a Brisbane win but most likely a goaless or low scoring DRAW for mine.
Western Sydney Wanderers $2.60
Draw $3.15
Newcastle Jets $2.60
Another difficult game to assess as will any game involving West Sydney in it's debut season. So should we have been so surprised when the defeated the current champions 2 weeks ago at the ridiculous odds of $11? Only Adelaide have conceded as few goals as them so far this season so the foundations for the club are being built well ahead of schedule. Scroing has been their problem but the past fortnight has been much better and they have been richly rewarded with 2 wins.
Conversely Newcastle have had no trouble scoring thus far netting 9 times which is the 2nd best record in the competition at present. But they have leaked 9 at the other end so they do have defensive frailties that can be exposed.
So given that factor if Western Sydney hold tight in defence once again they could just about get away with this one.
System Bet- The home odds available are well and truly adequate to invest in WSW.
and Newcastle are poor value for an away team.
Tip- A narrow win for WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS but no result would totally surprise in this one.
Sydney FC $2.25
Draw $3.30
Melbourne Victory $3.00
Again there is very little difference in the market between these 2 teams. They call this matchup 'The Big Blue' due to the intense rivalry between the 2 Southern States and the corresponding colour of the Jerseys of course.
Being a local Derby it is not surprising that these 2 teams often cancel each other out. In 24 A-League meetings over the years they have managed to draw 11 times (48%) with Sydney only beating their arch rivals 3 times at home, compared to Victorys' 5.
Del Pierro comes back into the Sydney side and they need all the help they can get after last weeks inglorious effort where they conceded 7. Perhaps a defensive change to0 with Bosschaert possibly making a return from injury. He didn't help them much last year though in stemming the flow of goals so Victory can approach this game with some confidence knowing their 2 quick strikers hit form last week in the 3-2 win against Wellington.
Melbourne too have their defensive problems and in fact both these sides quite easily sit afoot the table in the goals against tally. Sydney have conceded 1 more and both teams have scored 7.
System Bet- there is very little value available although Sydney are just backable for a home team at the Unitab price shown. Melbourne should be left alone at that price.
Tip- I'm going with that amazing historical DRAW stat which is twice as high as what is generally the norm. Victory have been poor away from home for some time but carry some scoring confidence into this one, and Sydney will be determined to erase the memory of last week and are likely to have concentrated heavily on their defence all week at training.
Wellington Phoenix $2.45
Draw $3.25
Central Coast Mariners $2.70
Wellington will be happy to come home after a fairly typical 2 game showing on the road with no points in the bag. They have Ben Sigmund returning from a controversial one week suspension and on the evidence of last week against Melbourne Victory he will be welcomed with open arms.
Historically though this is becoming a nightmare match up for them. So normally strong at home they have oddly succumbed to 3 defeats in a row against this opposition and what a time to have to play them!
Central Coast were irrepressible last week in what was probably their best and certainly most prolific peformance in the A-League win last week against Sydney FC. Whilst they were a little poor defensively early in that match they more than made up for it in an attacking sense for just about the entire match. They have the best goal difference in the League and their confidence will be sky high crossing the Tasman to a happy hunting ground.
System Bet- Wellington are the value for a home team , whilst Central Coast should be left alone.
Tip- I am very confident CENTRAL COAST MARINERS can take the 3 points here on current form and their historical prominence in NZ. Despite $2.70 not being good value for an away team I think we have to make an exception here given the circumstances. In fact I think it is outstanding value considering Brisbane are much less than that against Melbourne Heart???
Adelaide United $2.20
Draw $3.25
Perth Glory $3.10
This game could go either way and once again the odds and history tend to indicate that.
85% of matches between these 2 have ended in a result either way, with draw a bit of a rarity.
Both teams come off a win last time and should be just about at full strength.
Curiously Perth have won the last 4 clashes between these two and have won the past 2 in Adelaide 3-0 & 2-0.
That could be misleading though as Adelaide are the current front runners in the competition and are a far more formidable oufit this season to last after a meritorious Asian Champions League run and coach Kosminas' ideolologies are well and truly cemented in their DNA now. As their performance showed last week they are a pretty resilient outfit to deal with even when they haven't got the ball.
Perth possibly welcome back goal scoring machine Shane Smeltz for the first time this season (I think) but are still without their captain Jacob Burns. His omission doesn't really hurt them in an attacking sense but probably means they will be more exposed in defence. That isn't such a bad thing though because Adelaide generally play an open expansive game at home and very often give their opposition chances at the other end. Perth would be well advised to be adventurous in this one as that could be their best chance of winning.
System Bet- Adelaide are just enough value to be backed as a home team here whilst Perth are well short of the required odds of an away team.
Tip- Really could go either way but a result is very likely historically so I'll go with the system value and ADELAIDE at home in an entertaining encounter.
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar $2.10
This is quite a tough game to predict with both teams travelling poorly and missing a key player each. Heart still without Fred and Brisbane having to do without their prolific scorer Besart Berisha.
I can't remember Heart winning a game with Fred the past season and a bit so their chances look a bit forlorn in turning things around tonight against quality opposition.
Historically Brisbane have the better of things with 3 wins from 5 but there has been very little between these 2 teams the past 4 times they have met (1 drawn and only a goal separating in other 3) since the inaugaral clash where Brisbane comfortably won 4-0. Even during Brisbanes' championship dominance the past 2 years they have failed to establish any real superiority over their Melbourne rivals.
Interesting to see how Brisbane cope without Berisha because there is no logical replacement and this is a team that has failed to score in it's past 2 matches.
System Bet- Brisbane are way too short for an away side to contemplate an investment. Melbourne Heart certainly are backable and better odds can be attained if you shop around (up to $3.75). So 'Systematically' they are very good value for a home side.
The problem is I just can't see them winning against quality opposition (who can dominate possession) without their best player yet again.
Tip- Either a Brisbane win but most likely a goaless or low scoring DRAW for mine.
Western Sydney Wanderers $2.60
Draw $3.15
Newcastle Jets $2.60
Another difficult game to assess as will any game involving West Sydney in it's debut season. So should we have been so surprised when the defeated the current champions 2 weeks ago at the ridiculous odds of $11? Only Adelaide have conceded as few goals as them so far this season so the foundations for the club are being built well ahead of schedule. Scroing has been their problem but the past fortnight has been much better and they have been richly rewarded with 2 wins.
Conversely Newcastle have had no trouble scoring thus far netting 9 times which is the 2nd best record in the competition at present. But they have leaked 9 at the other end so they do have defensive frailties that can be exposed.
So given that factor if Western Sydney hold tight in defence once again they could just about get away with this one.
System Bet- The home odds available are well and truly adequate to invest in WSW.
and Newcastle are poor value for an away team.
Tip- A narrow win for WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS but no result would totally surprise in this one.
Sydney FC $2.25
Draw $3.30
Melbourne Victory $3.00
Again there is very little difference in the market between these 2 teams. They call this matchup 'The Big Blue' due to the intense rivalry between the 2 Southern States and the corresponding colour of the Jerseys of course.
Being a local Derby it is not surprising that these 2 teams often cancel each other out. In 24 A-League meetings over the years they have managed to draw 11 times (48%) with Sydney only beating their arch rivals 3 times at home, compared to Victorys' 5.
Del Pierro comes back into the Sydney side and they need all the help they can get after last weeks inglorious effort where they conceded 7. Perhaps a defensive change to0 with Bosschaert possibly making a return from injury. He didn't help them much last year though in stemming the flow of goals so Victory can approach this game with some confidence knowing their 2 quick strikers hit form last week in the 3-2 win against Wellington.
Melbourne too have their defensive problems and in fact both these sides quite easily sit afoot the table in the goals against tally. Sydney have conceded 1 more and both teams have scored 7.
System Bet- there is very little value available although Sydney are just backable for a home team at the Unitab price shown. Melbourne should be left alone at that price.
Tip- I'm going with that amazing historical DRAW stat which is twice as high as what is generally the norm. Victory have been poor away from home for some time but carry some scoring confidence into this one, and Sydney will be determined to erase the memory of last week and are likely to have concentrated heavily on their defence all week at training.
Wellington Phoenix $2.45
Draw $3.25
Central Coast Mariners $2.70
Wellington will be happy to come home after a fairly typical 2 game showing on the road with no points in the bag. They have Ben Sigmund returning from a controversial one week suspension and on the evidence of last week against Melbourne Victory he will be welcomed with open arms.
Historically though this is becoming a nightmare match up for them. So normally strong at home they have oddly succumbed to 3 defeats in a row against this opposition and what a time to have to play them!
Central Coast were irrepressible last week in what was probably their best and certainly most prolific peformance in the A-League win last week against Sydney FC. Whilst they were a little poor defensively early in that match they more than made up for it in an attacking sense for just about the entire match. They have the best goal difference in the League and their confidence will be sky high crossing the Tasman to a happy hunting ground.
System Bet- Wellington are the value for a home team , whilst Central Coast should be left alone.
Tip- I am very confident CENTRAL COAST MARINERS can take the 3 points here on current form and their historical prominence in NZ. Despite $2.70 not being good value for an away team I think we have to make an exception here given the circumstances. In fact I think it is outstanding value considering Brisbane are much less than that against Melbourne Heart???
Adelaide United $2.20
Draw $3.25
Perth Glory $3.10
This game could go either way and once again the odds and history tend to indicate that.
85% of matches between these 2 have ended in a result either way, with draw a bit of a rarity.
Both teams come off a win last time and should be just about at full strength.
Curiously Perth have won the last 4 clashes between these two and have won the past 2 in Adelaide 3-0 & 2-0.
That could be misleading though as Adelaide are the current front runners in the competition and are a far more formidable oufit this season to last after a meritorious Asian Champions League run and coach Kosminas' ideolologies are well and truly cemented in their DNA now. As their performance showed last week they are a pretty resilient outfit to deal with even when they haven't got the ball.
Perth possibly welcome back goal scoring machine Shane Smeltz for the first time this season (I think) but are still without their captain Jacob Burns. His omission doesn't really hurt them in an attacking sense but probably means they will be more exposed in defence. That isn't such a bad thing though because Adelaide generally play an open expansive game at home and very often give their opposition chances at the other end. Perth would be well advised to be adventurous in this one as that could be their best chance of winning.
System Bet- Adelaide are just enough value to be backed as a home team here whilst Perth are well short of the required odds of an away team.
Tip- Really could go either way but a result is very likely historically so I'll go with the system value and ADELAIDE at home in an entertaining encounter.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
A-League Round 2 2012
Adelaide United $1.62
Draw $3.75
West Sydney Wanderers $5.00
Adelaide come into this game after a somewhat surprising win away against a normally
resilient home team at Newcastle. Surprising considering the fact that they had barely slept for 3 nights and done so much travelling to and from Uzbekistan before arriving in NSW.
I didn't see that match but they were apparently by far the better team and had the game gone for another half hour or so they were the only one that was going to score again.
A fairly quick turnaround here for them so it is possible that their recent exertions could actually catch up with them here. Even more bad news for them is the absence of Dario Vidosic who scored one and provided one for them last week in that 2-0 win. Without him they may not have troubled the scorer.
Last year Adelaides' home form totally deserted them winning only 3 from 15, the majority of those matches played on a Friday night as this will be. Quite possible they have turned the corner in this regard looking at their AFC heroics but I'm not quite prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt just yet.
Western Sydney Warriors on debut were very good value for their draw against last seasons champions Central Coast Mariners at their home base in Parramatta. They were very well organised, disciplined, and with Aaron Mooy calling the shots in midfield they created more than enough chances to win the match. Problem was they never really looked like scoring due to a woefully profligate strikeforce. They should get better however and marquis player Shinji Ono should get a bit more game time here. On what he showed last week it can only spell trouble for Adelaide.
This team look to have formed a pretty tight knot group already so perhaps that augurs well for their first trip away and they have plenty or experience amongst their ranks.
There is a massive disparity in the odds of these 2 teams and the absence of Vidosic gives WSW a legitimate chance of sneaking a win here.
Hard to be confident given results of last week and the profligacy shown by the debutantes but at the prices quoted their is only one team I would be backing, and that is the new boys. No sense in dying wondering!
Sydney FC $2.00
Draw $3.35
Newcastle Jets $3.50
These two teams come into this match as the cellar dwellars after similar 2-0 defeats in their first game, the major difference being that Newcastle were at home opposed to Sydney who were forced to travel across the Tasman. That in itself probably suggests that Sydney deserves it's favoritism here and at least they did look like scoring last week, and possibly could have made a game of it had they done so. Winning an away game in this league after a home loss is a bit of rarity which isn't a positive for Newcastle Jets today.
Overall Sydney has far the better of these 2 teams in a head to head to situation winning nearly 57% of clashes with Newcastle only 18%. 25% of matches between them have ended in draws and that is identical to the avearage % of draws in all Soccer matches world wide.
Unfortunately there is not the required $4.10 available anywhere which is the prerequisite for betting on a draw, and is very rarely available in any match. Hence just why the Corprorates and Totes around the world would find it very hard to lose betting on Soccer matches,
Anywhow back to the game which could be a very tense encounter given the fact that neither are on the board yet and probably too anxious to do so given the spotlight is right on both today with their 2 big name signings (Del Pierro & Heskey) and a possible record attendance to bear witness. That is especially so for Sydney being the home side and hopefully it won't weigh too heavily on them.
Judging by respective performances first up neither team would seem capable of a stellar peformance but hopefully a a close tussle enuses which would go a long way to leaving media and Spectators satisfied with the outcome.
From a head to head betting perspective there is little value here given the most likely result is either a Sydney win or a closely fought draw.
Just noticed though that one betting agency is offering $3.80 about a Newcastle win which is just enough for an away team from a long term betting strategy point of view.
I'm tipping a close one with few goals that ends in a draw. Perhaps a 1-1 outcome.
Brisbane Roar $1.75
Draw $3.50
Melbourne Victory $4.40
Possibly another tough encounter here given that there are high expectations of both teams with neither unable to win in their first match of the season. This game has the potential to be a real grudge match too given that former Roar Coach Ange Postecoglou left in slightly acrimonious circumstances at the end of last season, announcing one moment that he was keen to win 3 consecutive championships with Brisbane, and just hours later handing in his resignation. The fact that a couple of Brisbane players have spoken up during the week, one stating that current mentor Rado Vidosic was the brains behind the success of the past 2 years, has only added fuel to the fire.
On paper this is definitely not a good match up for the Victoryans with Postecoglou looking to cement his ideals on his new look side, who now have to play a team who is already well versed in them off the back of 2 consecutive championships under his tutelage!
And they do so without the services of the potent Archie Thompson and the gifted Marco Rojas both away on international duty. Ironically they were the 2 players who combined to score their only goal last week against arch rivals Heart, and they are probably the 2 quickest players in the team. Pace up front is probably the thing they need most today as Postecoglous' sides needs it in spades to hasten what can sometimes be a very 'plodding' style of play, with the necessity of playing out from the back.
Speed in transition has often been the catchcry from the master coach but you also need quick players in the final third to make things count and the 2 absentees will be sorely missed today.
Conversely Brisbane are at full strength and really should to take full advantage of the fact that Victory are decidedly vulnerable today. The motive is there and so is the understanding between their players after a considerable amount of time together.
They really should win this one given that. although I do expect some strong resolve from the visitors.
Betting strategy dictates that we take Melbourne Victory here at the $4.40 on offer for an away team.
I can't recommend doing so but funnier things have happened and what a coup it would be for Ange if his team could pull it off.
Draw $3.75
West Sydney Wanderers $5.00
Adelaide come into this game after a somewhat surprising win away against a normally
resilient home team at Newcastle. Surprising considering the fact that they had barely slept for 3 nights and done so much travelling to and from Uzbekistan before arriving in NSW.
I didn't see that match but they were apparently by far the better team and had the game gone for another half hour or so they were the only one that was going to score again.
A fairly quick turnaround here for them so it is possible that their recent exertions could actually catch up with them here. Even more bad news for them is the absence of Dario Vidosic who scored one and provided one for them last week in that 2-0 win. Without him they may not have troubled the scorer.
Last year Adelaides' home form totally deserted them winning only 3 from 15, the majority of those matches played on a Friday night as this will be. Quite possible they have turned the corner in this regard looking at their AFC heroics but I'm not quite prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt just yet.
Western Sydney Warriors on debut were very good value for their draw against last seasons champions Central Coast Mariners at their home base in Parramatta. They were very well organised, disciplined, and with Aaron Mooy calling the shots in midfield they created more than enough chances to win the match. Problem was they never really looked like scoring due to a woefully profligate strikeforce. They should get better however and marquis player Shinji Ono should get a bit more game time here. On what he showed last week it can only spell trouble for Adelaide.
This team look to have formed a pretty tight knot group already so perhaps that augurs well for their first trip away and they have plenty or experience amongst their ranks.
There is a massive disparity in the odds of these 2 teams and the absence of Vidosic gives WSW a legitimate chance of sneaking a win here.
Hard to be confident given results of last week and the profligacy shown by the debutantes but at the prices quoted their is only one team I would be backing, and that is the new boys. No sense in dying wondering!
Sydney FC $2.00
Draw $3.35
Newcastle Jets $3.50
These two teams come into this match as the cellar dwellars after similar 2-0 defeats in their first game, the major difference being that Newcastle were at home opposed to Sydney who were forced to travel across the Tasman. That in itself probably suggests that Sydney deserves it's favoritism here and at least they did look like scoring last week, and possibly could have made a game of it had they done so. Winning an away game in this league after a home loss is a bit of rarity which isn't a positive for Newcastle Jets today.
Overall Sydney has far the better of these 2 teams in a head to head to situation winning nearly 57% of clashes with Newcastle only 18%. 25% of matches between them have ended in draws and that is identical to the avearage % of draws in all Soccer matches world wide.
Unfortunately there is not the required $4.10 available anywhere which is the prerequisite for betting on a draw, and is very rarely available in any match. Hence just why the Corprorates and Totes around the world would find it very hard to lose betting on Soccer matches,
Anywhow back to the game which could be a very tense encounter given the fact that neither are on the board yet and probably too anxious to do so given the spotlight is right on both today with their 2 big name signings (Del Pierro & Heskey) and a possible record attendance to bear witness. That is especially so for Sydney being the home side and hopefully it won't weigh too heavily on them.
Judging by respective performances first up neither team would seem capable of a stellar peformance but hopefully a a close tussle enuses which would go a long way to leaving media and Spectators satisfied with the outcome.
From a head to head betting perspective there is little value here given the most likely result is either a Sydney win or a closely fought draw.
Just noticed though that one betting agency is offering $3.80 about a Newcastle win which is just enough for an away team from a long term betting strategy point of view.
I'm tipping a close one with few goals that ends in a draw. Perhaps a 1-1 outcome.
Brisbane Roar $1.75
Draw $3.50
Melbourne Victory $4.40
Possibly another tough encounter here given that there are high expectations of both teams with neither unable to win in their first match of the season. This game has the potential to be a real grudge match too given that former Roar Coach Ange Postecoglou left in slightly acrimonious circumstances at the end of last season, announcing one moment that he was keen to win 3 consecutive championships with Brisbane, and just hours later handing in his resignation. The fact that a couple of Brisbane players have spoken up during the week, one stating that current mentor Rado Vidosic was the brains behind the success of the past 2 years, has only added fuel to the fire.
On paper this is definitely not a good match up for the Victoryans with Postecoglou looking to cement his ideals on his new look side, who now have to play a team who is already well versed in them off the back of 2 consecutive championships under his tutelage!
And they do so without the services of the potent Archie Thompson and the gifted Marco Rojas both away on international duty. Ironically they were the 2 players who combined to score their only goal last week against arch rivals Heart, and they are probably the 2 quickest players in the team. Pace up front is probably the thing they need most today as Postecoglous' sides needs it in spades to hasten what can sometimes be a very 'plodding' style of play, with the necessity of playing out from the back.
Speed in transition has often been the catchcry from the master coach but you also need quick players in the final third to make things count and the 2 absentees will be sorely missed today.
Conversely Brisbane are at full strength and really should to take full advantage of the fact that Victory are decidedly vulnerable today. The motive is there and so is the understanding between their players after a considerable amount of time together.
They really should win this one given that. although I do expect some strong resolve from the visitors.
Betting strategy dictates that we take Melbourne Victory here at the $4.40 on offer for an away team.
I can't recommend doing so but funnier things have happened and what a coup it would be for Ange if his team could pull it off.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Brisbane hold aces but Perth need not die wondering
This Sundays' Grand Final at Suncorp stadium between defending champions Brisbane Roar and a resurgent Perth Glory is almost certain to be a sellout that will hopefully provide similar drama to the incredible spectacle witnessed at the same venue last year.
With an average of 3.8 goals scored between these 2 teams since the inception of the A-League it is reasonable to assume that this matchup is going to at least provide it's fair share of goalmouth action.
Brisbane enter the game as deserved (and resounding) favourites. As stated they are defending champions, they are the home side and have also had the better of Perth this season, winning 2 and drawing 1 of their 3 encounters. The 2 wins were resounding ones, 4-0 at home earlier in the season (gave Brisbane a record 36 game unbeaten streak) and a fairly recent 3-0 thumping over the visitors in Perth. Sandwiched between those 2 games was a very entertaining 3 all draw over in the west which could have gone either way.
Even more deflating for Perth supporters is the Head To Head record between these 2 which reads 21 games and only 3 wins for their team overall. Away from home it is even more damning for the Glory with only 1 win at Suncorp and 3 draws from 10 matches.
Amazingly though that is exactly the same statistic that Perth faced last week before their crunch Semi Final clash against Central Coast. The 2nd half and extra time wasn't particularly pretty for the Glory but they defended resolutely and did create 1 or 2 goal scoring opportunites for themselves, eventually claiming an unexpected win against the regular season Champions.
Their first half performance was very creditable in that game and they had the better of the home side in that period. They did concede first however off a horrendous defensive error, only to hit straight back with a goal, once again proving their grit and resolve in 2012.
The new found resilience and self belief in this Perth side should not be underestimated as last Christmas they looked to be a spent force. At that stage they looked more likely to be wooden spooners than title contenders and coach Ian Ferguson was possibly one defeat away from departing the scene. A little earlier than that owner Tony Sage was also on the verge of abandoning ship too, off the back of heavy criticism from home fans, but he stuck with it, gave tremendous support to his beleaguered coach, and eventually reaped the rewards. Since the New Year the turnaround has been nothing short of astounding. In their last 13 matches, of a possible 39 points in the regular season they managed to claim 28 of them, enough to earn them 3rd spot on the competition table.
Thereafter they comfortably won their first finals match against Melbourne Heart and then went on to win pulsating encounter in extra time against a similarly (to themselves) resilient Wellington Phoenix, before pulling off one of the upsets of the season against the Mariners last week.
There is a good blend of experience and youth in the squad and importantly some of their older players have a wealth of big game experience. The likes of Billy Mehmet, Steve McGarry, Liam Miller and Andrezinho have all played in bigger Leagues overseas. Add to that mix their very much in form All Whites (NZ) World Cup scoring hero Shane Smeltz, and they are certainly not a team to be taken lightly.
What is probably imperative on Sunday is that Perth come to Brisbane with a positive mindset. That wasn't the case earlier in the season when Coach Ferguson employed negative tactics, deciding to sit back and absorb pressure hoping to catch Brisbane napping on the counter attack. That game plan backfired badly for his side after they conceded fairly early and it ended up being a very long night for them with the game all over at half time in the face of a 4-0 deficit. Notably the tactics changed in the 2nd half through the introduction of Andrezinho who proceeded to run rings around Brisbanes 'defence, all to no avail, but at least it stemmed the flow of goals to nought at the other end, adding some respectability to the performance.
As massive underdogs for this game Perth have nothing to lose and the best option would be to repeat what they did last week against Central Coast. In that match they pressed high up the pitch, stopped Central Coast getting into their rhythm and got a very big slice of possession in the process. That might be their best hope of toppling Brisbane who more often than not dominate their opponents if allowed to play at their own tempo. It will take a massive physical effort from Perth to employ this tactic for 90 minutes or more, but as most players will tell you it can be just as (if not more) energy sapping to sit back and defend the whole game with little possession of the ball.
The only problem I see for Perth is that they did get very fatigued from the 2nd half onwards last week against the Mariners. They rode their luck there on a couple of occasions against an unusually profligate attack, and likely won't be afforded the same luxury this time around. That said though, their defending last week was, on the whole, pretty impressive under pressure.
One other positive for them is that Brisbane didn't play overly well in front of massive home support in last seasons Grand final, taking some 117 minutes to find the net. Nerves could well have played a part there, and could this year too, which is why it is so important for Perth not to go into their shell early in this match. If Brisbane get into a rhythm early it could lead to the concession of an early goal, which would likely be fatal to Perth in the final anlaysis of this match.
Perth need to get their fair share of possession and they can only do that by stemming the flow of supply to the Brisbane midfield. In their other clashes this season they have failed to contend with Erik Paartalu providing this impetus to the Brisane midfield but they do have the option here of promoting Steve McGarry to the starting lineup now he has overcome a knee injury. He generally plays behind the front 2 strikers, could easily be employed to 'look after' Paartalu and he has been a very handy player for Perth this season, chiming in with some very important goals. He is not strictly a midfielder and his inclusion might leave them short in that area of the field but from Perths'point of view it is probably more important that the supply doesn't get there in the first place. There is no doubt Perth they have the attacking ammunition to inflict hurt on the home side. They have 2 damaging wingers in Dodd and Andrezinho (if he overcomes injury) who have the ability to get in behind what can be (at times) a frail Brisbane defensive line, and 2 potent Central attackers in the shape of Smeltz and Mehmet, who more often than not take their chances when presented. Without adequate supply from their midfield though it is going to be difficult to create enough chances to trouble what can be a relentless Brisbane side.
One possible and unexpected bonus for the Perth Defence is the form and fitness of Brisbanes' (and the Leagues) leading goal scorer Besart Berisha. Affectionately penned the Albanian Beast by a Forumite earlier this season he looked nothing of that sort on Tuesday night against Korean side Ulsan Hyundai. He originally wasn't going to take his place in that match and hardly featured, eventually replaced at about the hour mark. Even if he does overcome the Virus that has struck him down over the past 2 weeks he might not be at his best on Sunday.
Add to that the slightly disappointing big game performances of Thomas Broich (in last years Grand Final and this years' Asian Champions League matches), and the door is perhaps even more ajar for Perth to gain a serious foothold in this Grand Final.
Another bonus might well be a worn pitch, as there are two Rugby Union matches programmed for Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. A roughened surface is more likely to affect Brisbane Roar who are the better "Footballing" side of the 2 and it certainly didn't help them against the Koreans on Tuesday (after the Rugby clashes last weekend). There is one less day for the groundsmen to prepare for this game, so it does seem that the surface will be less than ideal for attractive Football to be played, and for Brisbane to retain the amount of possession they normally thrive on. Lets hope the overall spectacle isn't compromised as a result!
All that said Brisbane Roar have coped with similar scenarios in the past. For instance they have a good record on the reputedly bumpy pitch at Gosford. They will enter this game with a lot of confidence after 2 pretty impressive displays against the Mariners, and an almost complete domination of Perth this season. And despite defeat on Tuesday night against an Asian opponent that was slightly better than them, it was nearly the perfect preparation for this Grand Final. They certainly weren't disgraced and finished off a very high tempo, and physically demanding game with plenty of energy, unlucky in fact not to have grasped a late equaliser. It is extremely unlikely Perth are going to present them with as many problems as that Korean side did, in the areas of speed, passing precision and energy.
A lot is going to depend on how well Brisbane start this game and whether or not they can get a goal in the first half an hour or so. They will be keen to inflict first blood with an early goal and sow the seeds of doubt that might still be fresh in the Perth psyche form the 3-0 loss in back in late February . If they do so Brisbane just might win comfortably.
The longer the game goes without the ascendency being taken by the home team though, the harder it will become to unlock the door of a likely gritty underdog.
What we do know about this Brisbane Roar team is that they don't tend to panic whatever the situation. As long as they are getting the Lions share of possession they will be confident of sealing victory in any situation. And how hopeless that situation looked in the corresponding match last season 2-0 down with only 3 minutes left out of the 120 minutes eventually allocated. It is never over till it's over as far as this team is concerned so their opponent needs to be absolutely focused throughout the entire match.
Brisbane will be hoping that Besart Berisha is back to somewhere near his best, though 6 of the 10 goals they have scored against Perth this season have come from elsewhere in the shape of Nicholls, Henrique, Nakajima- Farran & Paartalu, so the goal threat certainly doesn't rest with him. Broich didn't even play in the last 2 encounters between these two, but did play in the 4-0 home win earlier this season, inflicting maximum damage from memory, so his performance could go a long way to deciding the outcome of this match. Or, how Perth cope with him could be pivotal let's say.
This really is Brisbanes' final to lose and they need to be acutely aware that they can't afford to rest on their laurels and let any complacency creep in. They have been the better performed side of the two this season, and it does appear they are finishing the season off with more energy than Perth, who have arguably played 2 Grand Finals (both went to injury time) already in their past 2 matches.
This Brisbane side have an average age of 25.8 opposed to Perth at 27.47. Although those figures don't appear to be overly significant on paper, it could be just enough to tip the balance in Brisbanes' favor at the end of a very long season.
A lot is going to depend on how well rested and recuperated Perth are from last weeks heroics, and whether they can raise themselves to an anticipated even higher level this time against the current Champions. It's a big ask, probably too big in my opinion and I'm tipping Brisbane to prevail in this one by 2 goals.
An added incentive to the winner is automatic qualification to next years Asian Champions League.
The loser has the slightly more difficult option of having to win a qualifying match, but the opposition is likely to be an inferior club team from that region. (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia etc.)
Brisbane just might be the hungrier for it, as their quest for that title is just about over this season. And they will know they should have done better.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Brisbane Roar facing uphill battle in Asia
The current Australian Champions entered the game as massive favourites against their Asian counterparts but it soon became obvious that it was going to be anything but an easy night for the Brisbanites. Not only did Tokyo FC play a similar style of game to Brisbane, but it appeared they were at least as good at it. As the game wore on it became evident that they were in fact much better at it, and that Brisbane needed a minor miracle to even escape with a point. That unfortunately didn't eventutate and they were quite clearly the inferior team on the night beaten by, what has to be said, a very classy and clinical opponent, 2 goals to nil.
So what went wrong and can things be rectified?
Firstly coach Postecoglou admitted before the game that his team was very much 'in the dark' as to the quality of their opponents, despite the fact that assistant coach Rado Vidosic had travelled to Japan to watch the Tokyo side unluckily lose (apparently) the weekend before this match.
From what I did read Vidosic was impressed by what he saw and supposedly told all involved that they would be difficult opponents.
It doesn't appear though that the message was totally heeded by the players and around 20 minutes into the game it seemed that the Roar players were quite shellshocked, and perhaps overawed by the speed, technical ability, and passing accuracy of their opponent. It was nothing like what they had experienced in their last 2 years in the A-League, and as a result they struggled to come to grips with the game thereafter.
One of the problems Brisbane Roar will have to overcome to progress in this competition is an over reliance in concentrating on their own game, and not concerning themselves enough with their opposition. That factor has largely worked very well for them in the A-League, as they have been the quality side of the competition the past 2 seasons, and more often than not opponents have failed to counter the style they employ, which ironically is very much the same style that the Japanese, Korean and Chinese teams bring to the table.
To progress any further form the group stages of this tournament I'd suggest that the coaching staff look at a lot more at footage of the remaining teams they will play within their group.
It was patently obvious that Tokyo FC management had done so in respect to Brisbane before this match. They gave them no time whatsover to settle into a rhythm, stopped them playing out from the back, and correctly pinpointed Broich, Berisha & perhaps Erik Paartalu as the danger men. All 3 were nullified to a great extent during proceedings.
Secondly, assuming that is carried out the next question is can Brisbane adapt to counter the playing style of their Asian opponents, who are expectedly of similar ilk to Tokyo FC technically?
You'd have to think it is doubtful as even in the A-League this year, teams have learnt to play smarter against them, either 'parking the bus' or playing a high pressing game which at times Brisbane have failed to overcome, as evidenced by that 5 match losing streak in the middle of the season. They certainly haven't dominated the competition as they did last season which suggests that other teams have not only improved, they have also learnt to counterract their playing style.
During the poor run and at other times this season coach Postecoglou has murmured that his team will keep doing what they are doing, playing out from the back, just need to be quicker in transition, more penetrative in attack, and more clinical with their finishing. Recently all those things have pretty much come to fruition and things were looking pretty rosy leading into this match, with the possible exception of their prior game against Melbourne Heart where they failed to really impress in a 1-1 draw.
Quite obviously 'doing what they are doing' isn't going to cut in in Asia on the evidence of this match. Being quicker in transition will help, but only bring them up to speed with their opponents, and without that ability to move the ball quicker from defence to attack, their penetration and ability to create, let alone finish chances will be severely compromised.
As Fox Sports commentator Mark Bosnich probably correctly suggested at half time during this game; "Brisbane need to start knocking some long balls over the top (not exclusively but occasionally) just to get their opponent facing their own goal and on the back foot". The fact that did not happen in the second half suggests that coach Postecoglou has either;
a) not come to grips with that realisation yet
or
b) isn't interested in emloying the method at all.
I'd say the latter is more accurate and it could well be a case of 'adapt or perish' for the Roar.
After the game both the coach and players admitted they were surprised that the opposition were of such quality, but that they would gain a lot from the experience and be better for it.
That maybe so but it's hardly likely this team will carry the same confidence into their remaining matches in the group and just being aware of how good the oppositon could be, and lifting their intensity to match that of their opponent isn't likely to 'bring home the bacon'. A very careful study of their opposition, employing methods of beating them and 'throwing some caution to the wind' are going to be tantamount to any future success in the competition, coupled with the realisation that their A-League status just isn't going to be good enough.
Both Adelaide United & Central Coast secured much better results 'on the road' in their respective games in the competition, against seemingly just as tough opposition. They both play a different style of game to Brisbane and probably a less predictable one to Asian opposition. Neither were in peak form leading in (especially Adelaide!) but probably gave a little more respect to their opponent, as a result of their indifferent form, and the fact that they were the visitors.
Brisbane Roar will soon find themselves in much the same situation and will need to play with similar resolve to get any kind of favourable result.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Berisha breaking new ground!
When the Australian A-League player awards are conducted later this season it is very likely that Brisbane Roars' Besart Berisha will 'scoop the pool' with at least 3 accolades bestowed upon him.
I'm not quite sure what the categories are, but right now he would appear to be a 'shoe in' for 3 awards that have been presented in the past;
a) Top Goalscorer
b) Best Player
c) Best Import
With 17 goals this season from 23 A-League matches at an average of 0.77 goals per game one could be forgiven for thinking that Besart is typical of the single minded Striker who solely benefits from industrious team mates, and merely finishes off their good work at the pointy end of attacks.
But in reality nothing could be further from the truth. Anybody that thinks otherwise really needs to have a good look at last nights Round 23 clash against Perth Glory (in Perth) as just one example.
Not only did he slot home 2, and make 1 of the 3 goals Brisbane Roar scored, his true worth really stood out from the 65th minute mark, directly after his strike partner Henrique was sent from the field.
From that point on Berisha (I'm assuming) took it upon himself to largely relinquish his central striker role, freeing himself up to stem attacking raids deep inside his teams defensive 3rd of the pitch, secondary only to playing a quite Masterful central midfield role, controlling a lot of the possession, pretty much negating any hope Perth might have had of clawing their way back into the match.
It really was a joy to watch as this kind of work rate and commitment to the team cause, so often lacking in the modern game. Having said that I'm not even sure that his coach even approved of the kind of positional 'switcheroo' that Berisha employed last night. But there is absolutely no doubt that Roar Supremo Ange Postecoglou appreciates just what an asset the Albanian is to his team, that kind of 'passion in spades' would have been largely in the forefront of his thinking before rewarding him a further 2 year contract, less than a month ago. And what a coup that might well prove to be, because at the end to the upcoming Asian Champions League in November, Berisha could be the most sought after player in the region, at least on the form he is displaying at present. The A-League scoring record of 19 goals set by Shane Smeltz now seems well and truly a formality for him to overtake, and with 6 goals in his past 4 games, it appears that he will do so sooner rather than later. There are 6 games left for Brisbane Roar in the regular season, possibly 3 or 4 in the Final series, and an Asian Champions League campaign to come, so just how many more he can add is really anybody's guess.
You could also be forgiven for thinking that everything has been plain sailing for the humble and likeable Albanian this season. Once again though that really isn't the case.
After scoring an impressive 9 goals from his first 8 games in the A-League (including 4 in one game) culminating with 2 in the Roars' 36 game record breaking match against Perth in round 8, the goals dried up for him. It was bad enough that his team stumbled to an untenable 5 losses in a row thereafter, but for Berisha it would be another 4 matches before he would break the drought.
And it couldn't have come at a better time, possibly one of the most memorable goals ever in the A-League, not on the score of quality, but for sheer timing and almost immediate controversy, it won't be forgotten easily. It came at home against Sydney in Round 17. All seemed lost for the Roar who trailed 1-0 for the majority of the match until Sayed Mohamed Adnan scored a spectacular equalising free kick deep into injury time. A minute or so later Brisbane staged another attack down the left with Shane Steffanuto supplying a telling cross to an unmarked Mitch Nichols who cleverly first touched the ball, at speed, into the six yard box where Berisha was waiting, his superb reflexes coming to the fore, finishing off a half chance with great aplomb.
What happened shortly thereafter at the final whistle very much overshadowed what could well have been a glorious moment for the Albanian. Rather than soak up the adulation of scoring (and breaking the drought) a dramatic winner Berishas' mind was elsewhere, seeking to settle an even bigger score with an opposition player who had clearly overstepped the boundaries of fair play in his opinion. Whilst taking your shirt off and ushering an opponent to the tunnel for a stoush is hardly admirable at the end of a match, it does perhaps give us a telling insight into him as a player, and an individual.
He won't take a backward step, wears his heart on his sleeve, and has a strong sense of justice. He clearly has little time for self adulation and has commented several times this season on how much the team means to him, and how much he appreciates the players around him.
Add those elements to the his physical attributes- Athleticism, Strength, Stamina, Positional versatility, Acceleration in the penalty box and clnical finishing, and you begin to realise that Besart is just about the complete package, a Managers' dream if you like!
I for one am going to enjoy watching that package revealing even more by seasons end, whether it be in the A-League or the Asian Champions League.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Gold Coast vs Central Coast Mariners (rescheduled match) 22/02
Gold Coast United $5.50
Draw $3.80
Central Coast Mariners $1.58
Skilled Park Stadium 7.05p.m Wed. 22/02/12
History and Stats;
9 games between these 2 with Central Coast having their noses in front winning 3 to Gold Coasts' 2 with 4 draws.
The last 2 meetings have produced 2 draws only 2 goals and notable they have both been at Gosford and Central Coast have been massive favourites both times. This is their 3rd meeting this season.
In their last meeting here Central Coast were the victors 3-1in February 2011.
Average goals scored in this fixture- 2.33
Current Form;
It has been a tumultuous week to say the least for the team from the Glitter strip. No more Miron Bleiberg as coach and it is hard to gauge just how much respect he did have from the playing group.
Their performance last week against Heart, whilst admirable, lacked any real cohesion and they never really looked as though they could win the game.
Back at home they are a better proposition ,with one or 2 regulars back but the confidence would stillhave to be at an all time low and spectator attendance for this one could very well be too.
Central Coast are still missing a couple of their good young players (especially goalkeeper Matt Ryan) but they appear to be back to something like their best judging on the win against Wellington Phoenix last week. They have more options in attack then they did a week or so ago, and their back 4 were back to keeping a clean sheet for the first time in a while in that game, so overall they should approach this game with a lot of confidence.
Prediction;
Impossible to tip against Central Coast who are back in from and are likely to up their performance level considering that a win here just about ensures them the A-League top spot this year.
Gold Coast are a bit of a bogey side for them though and have one or 2 notable absentees returning from injury, and have a young side with very little to lose. Add to that a high probablility of rain and late thunderstorms and just maybe things could be a little trickier than it might appear on paper.
I have to go with the Mariners though who are a far better team this year, have had a low key preparation compared to their opposition, and should back up well from the weekend given the work ethic of their coach Graham Arnold and their recent ordinary showing off a 2 week break. I'd expect a spirited effort from the home side but class and form should prevail here by possibly a 2 goal margin.
Betting Strategy;
Once again long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at a very inflated price. A draw could possibly get to the required $4+ value too. But given the events of this week and the injury ravaged state of this Gold Coast outfit I couldn't recommend taking either. Central Coast by at least a goal, and although no price is yet available CC defender Patrick Zwaanswijk is normally around the $20 mark for first goalscorer. That is always value considering that he takes free kicks and often scores from headers at corner kicks. He already has 6 goals to his name this season which is an incredible return for a centre back.
Draw $3.80
Central Coast Mariners $1.58
Skilled Park Stadium 7.05p.m Wed. 22/02/12
History and Stats;
9 games between these 2 with Central Coast having their noses in front winning 3 to Gold Coasts' 2 with 4 draws.
The last 2 meetings have produced 2 draws only 2 goals and notable they have both been at Gosford and Central Coast have been massive favourites both times. This is their 3rd meeting this season.
In their last meeting here Central Coast were the victors 3-1in February 2011.
Average goals scored in this fixture- 2.33
Current Form;
It has been a tumultuous week to say the least for the team from the Glitter strip. No more Miron Bleiberg as coach and it is hard to gauge just how much respect he did have from the playing group.
Their performance last week against Heart, whilst admirable, lacked any real cohesion and they never really looked as though they could win the game.
Back at home they are a better proposition ,with one or 2 regulars back but the confidence would stillhave to be at an all time low and spectator attendance for this one could very well be too.
Central Coast are still missing a couple of their good young players (especially goalkeeper Matt Ryan) but they appear to be back to something like their best judging on the win against Wellington Phoenix last week. They have more options in attack then they did a week or so ago, and their back 4 were back to keeping a clean sheet for the first time in a while in that game, so overall they should approach this game with a lot of confidence.
Prediction;
Impossible to tip against Central Coast who are back in from and are likely to up their performance level considering that a win here just about ensures them the A-League top spot this year.
Gold Coast are a bit of a bogey side for them though and have one or 2 notable absentees returning from injury, and have a young side with very little to lose. Add to that a high probablility of rain and late thunderstorms and just maybe things could be a little trickier than it might appear on paper.
I have to go with the Mariners though who are a far better team this year, have had a low key preparation compared to their opposition, and should back up well from the weekend given the work ethic of their coach Graham Arnold and their recent ordinary showing off a 2 week break. I'd expect a spirited effort from the home side but class and form should prevail here by possibly a 2 goal margin.
Betting Strategy;
Once again long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at a very inflated price. A draw could possibly get to the required $4+ value too. But given the events of this week and the injury ravaged state of this Gold Coast outfit I couldn't recommend taking either. Central Coast by at least a goal, and although no price is yet available CC defender Patrick Zwaanswijk is normally around the $20 mark for first goalscorer. That is always value considering that he takes free kicks and often scores from headers at corner kicks. He already has 6 goals to his name this season which is an incredible return for a centre back.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
A-League Round 21
A much abbreviated summary this week due to time restrictions. On paper the results look fairly predictable as indicated by betting odds. I'd be surprised if everything runs to the script as is so often the case in this League.
Melbourne Heart v Gold Coast United AAMI Park 7:00 PM, Fri 17 Feb 2012
Melbourne Heart 1.62
Draw 3.65
Gold Coast United 5.25
Melbourne Heart have their Captain back for this after an extensive absence and they haven't won a game without him this year. Vice Captain Matt Thompson possibly returns too.
Gold Coast though are absolutely decimated with injury, reportedly 13 of their squad unavailable for selection and even their captain is suspended. A 17 year old made captain and who is yet to play at this level. Ridiculous!
Both teams are hopelessly out of form for this one but Heart have the incentive of getting a finals campaign back on track. They really should win this one but the pressure is on them and nothing much is going to be expected of their opposition, which could be dangerous. Barring complacency though Heart should come up trumps.
Long Term Betting Strategy- Gold Coast away are good value for an away team and the Heart have to be layed at their odds on quote.
Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix Bluetongue Stadium 1 4:30 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012
Central Coast Mariners 1.90
Draw 3.25
Wellington Phoenix 4.10
Central Coast meet a somewhat depleted Wellington Phoenix team here who have 2 of their regular back four missing. Manny Muscat returns at right back though which is a bonus. Central Coast have an addition to their offensive ranks in the shape of Englishman John Sutton. Young Tomas Rogic really made his mark last week despite the loss to Melbourne Victory and Central Coast could well be rebuilding as potent a strike force as they had before Matt Simons' departure. They won't have gelled together yet though and Wellington have proven numerous times this season that they are a force to be reckoned with. They have beaten Central Coast twice at Gosford from 5 matches overall.
I'm going for a draw here at the value.
Average Goals this fixture- 1.8
Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Central Coast and back Wellington who are the Value away team.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory 6:45 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012
Brisbane Roar 1.70
Draw 3.45
Melbourne Victory 5.00
Brisbane are looking back to their Championship winning best having defeated the 2 teams placed above them on the table 2-0 in consecutive weeks. They annihilated a woeful Melbourne Victory here on New Years Eve 2011.
Despite that Victory do actually have a better record in this fixture 5 wins to 3, and they probably played their best match of the season last week in downing the ladder leaders. They will come to Brisbane with their tails up, and with Carlos Hernandez back in form and favour, they certainly look a more appealing prospect for value bettors.
Brisbane might just hold too many aces though and are still my pick. They may not get beaten again this season, or at least in the run up to the finals.
Average goals this fixture- 2
Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Brisbane and back Melbourne Victory who are in fact an amazing price and will be keen to back themselves I'd imagine!
Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets nib Stadium 9:00 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012
Perth Glory 1.80
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 4.25
Both sides in pretty good form and now well and truly in finals contention.
Perth have been scintillating at home their past 3 matches scoring 11 and only conceding 3.
They had a bit of a reality check last week against a much improved Sydney team but they should return to their best here barring complacency. No easy task however to knock over a Newcastle team who have strung 3 wins in a row together and 2 of them have been on the road. They are also scoring plenty of goals, averaging 3 in those last three matches. This is a tougher ask though travelling West and a draw would be a good result. I slightly favour Perth but also see a draw as very realistic.
Average Goals this fixture- 3
Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Perth Glory and back Newcastle Jets at the value 'away' price.
Adelaide United v Sydney FC Hindmarsh Stadium 2012- Sun 19 Feb 2012
Adelaide United 2.40
Draw 3.25
Sydney FC 2.80
Adelaide have been disappointing at home this season and will be backing up for their 3rd game in 7 days here after a Thursday night AFC game against Indonesian side Persipura Jayapura. They were very fortunate to win against Gold Coast last Sunday and are going to have to find better form than that to win this encounter . They will also have to call on energy reserves too and any lingering tiredness from Thursday night should be exploited by a likely resilient Sydney outfit.
Sydney were tremendous last week and will be keen to cement a place in the top 6 here. Brett Emerton impressive in his return, scoring against Perth in that last match. They might have one or 2 other players returning to the fray for this one.
I do fancy Sydney to win this one.
Average Goals this fixture- 3.1
Long Term Betting Strategy- Back Adelaide who are good enough value for a home team.
Melbourne Heart v Gold Coast United AAMI Park 7:00 PM, Fri 17 Feb 2012
Melbourne Heart 1.62
Draw 3.65
Gold Coast United 5.25
Melbourne Heart have their Captain back for this after an extensive absence and they haven't won a game without him this year. Vice Captain Matt Thompson possibly returns too.
Gold Coast though are absolutely decimated with injury, reportedly 13 of their squad unavailable for selection and even their captain is suspended. A 17 year old made captain and who is yet to play at this level. Ridiculous!
Both teams are hopelessly out of form for this one but Heart have the incentive of getting a finals campaign back on track. They really should win this one but the pressure is on them and nothing much is going to be expected of their opposition, which could be dangerous. Barring complacency though Heart should come up trumps.
Long Term Betting Strategy- Gold Coast away are good value for an away team and the Heart have to be layed at their odds on quote.
Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix Bluetongue Stadium 1 4:30 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012
Central Coast Mariners 1.90
Draw 3.25
Wellington Phoenix 4.10
Central Coast meet a somewhat depleted Wellington Phoenix team here who have 2 of their regular back four missing. Manny Muscat returns at right back though which is a bonus. Central Coast have an addition to their offensive ranks in the shape of Englishman John Sutton. Young Tomas Rogic really made his mark last week despite the loss to Melbourne Victory and Central Coast could well be rebuilding as potent a strike force as they had before Matt Simons' departure. They won't have gelled together yet though and Wellington have proven numerous times this season that they are a force to be reckoned with. They have beaten Central Coast twice at Gosford from 5 matches overall.
I'm going for a draw here at the value.
Average Goals this fixture- 1.8
Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Central Coast and back Wellington who are the Value away team.
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory 6:45 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012
Brisbane Roar 1.70
Draw 3.45
Melbourne Victory 5.00
Brisbane are looking back to their Championship winning best having defeated the 2 teams placed above them on the table 2-0 in consecutive weeks. They annihilated a woeful Melbourne Victory here on New Years Eve 2011.
Despite that Victory do actually have a better record in this fixture 5 wins to 3, and they probably played their best match of the season last week in downing the ladder leaders. They will come to Brisbane with their tails up, and with Carlos Hernandez back in form and favour, they certainly look a more appealing prospect for value bettors.
Brisbane might just hold too many aces though and are still my pick. They may not get beaten again this season, or at least in the run up to the finals.
Average goals this fixture- 2
Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Brisbane and back Melbourne Victory who are in fact an amazing price and will be keen to back themselves I'd imagine!
Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets nib Stadium 9:00 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012
Perth Glory 1.80
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 4.25
Both sides in pretty good form and now well and truly in finals contention.
Perth have been scintillating at home their past 3 matches scoring 11 and only conceding 3.
They had a bit of a reality check last week against a much improved Sydney team but they should return to their best here barring complacency. No easy task however to knock over a Newcastle team who have strung 3 wins in a row together and 2 of them have been on the road. They are also scoring plenty of goals, averaging 3 in those last three matches. This is a tougher ask though travelling West and a draw would be a good result. I slightly favour Perth but also see a draw as very realistic.
Average Goals this fixture- 3
Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Perth Glory and back Newcastle Jets at the value 'away' price.
Adelaide United v Sydney FC Hindmarsh Stadium 2012- Sun 19 Feb 2012
Adelaide United 2.40
Draw 3.25
Sydney FC 2.80
Adelaide have been disappointing at home this season and will be backing up for their 3rd game in 7 days here after a Thursday night AFC game against Indonesian side Persipura Jayapura. They were very fortunate to win against Gold Coast last Sunday and are going to have to find better form than that to win this encounter . They will also have to call on energy reserves too and any lingering tiredness from Thursday night should be exploited by a likely resilient Sydney outfit.
Sydney were tremendous last week and will be keen to cement a place in the top 6 here. Brett Emerton impressive in his return, scoring against Perth in that last match. They might have one or 2 other players returning to the fray for this one.
I do fancy Sydney to win this one.
Average Goals this fixture- 3.1
Long Term Betting Strategy- Back Adelaide who are good enough value for a home team.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
A-League Round 20
Prices quoted are Unitab odds as at 6.45pm Wednesday 8/02/12
Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners AAMI Park 2012-02-10T09:00:00 1 7:00 PM, Fri 10 Feb 2012
Melbourne Victory 2.85
Draw 3.25
Central Coast Mariners 2.40
Head to Head;
All Time- Melbourne Victory 8, Central Coast 7, Draws 3.
This Fixture- Melbourne Victory 3, Central Coast 3, Draws 3
This Season- Central Coast Mariners 2 Melbourne Victory 0 (4/01/12)
Central Coast Mariners 0 Melbourne Victory 0 (12/11/11)
Form Guide;
Melbourne Victory are unbeaten at home this season from 11 games but have won only 3 of them with 8 draws. They have been ahead in their last 3 home matches but failed to win. In fact at home this season they haven't managed to win a second half in regards to outscoring their opponents.
In reality though their home form is far superior to their away form and the old maxim that a home crowd is worth a goal certainly rings true for them.
Central Coast come into this game after losing their first game in 16 matches. They lead the competition by 7 points and have a game in hand (Gold Coast).
Their away form this season is without peer winning 7 of 9 and they have won their last 7.
They had the better of the second half in their last match against Brisbane Roar but failed to trouble the scorer. That was their first game in 14 days due to their abandoned match the week prior, and it appears the break didn't assist them going on their first half performance.
Injuries/Replacements;
Melbourne Victory are likely to play new Spanish Defender Ubay Luzardo if Captain Adrian Leijer succumbs to a groin problem. Grand Brebner is also missing with an ankle problem which could see him miss up to 4 games. This necessitates a change to the midfield where youngster Jimmy Jeggo is tipped to make his debut. He has reportedly been impressive in a midfield role as Captain of the Youth team.
Central Coast also have significant injury concerns with Pedj Boic and Troy Hearfield unavailable for this one. The former in particular will be sorely missed for his lung busting overlapping runs from right full back. He has been very influential in a number of games for the Mariners this season.
* Add to that the fact that Central Coast are still without 3 key youngsters on Olyroos duty and the loss of Matt Simon some weeks ago and this is almost a 2nd team that is being fielded. They still have the same solid Centre Back pairing of Zwaanswijk & Wilkinson, and the impressive Michael McGlinchey in midfield, but that's about it in terms of familiarity.
Prediction;
I couldn't possibly tip Melbourne Victory to win the way they are playing. To say they are below par would be an understatement. If they do happen to lead the match they are likely to cough up a goal late, and if they don't concede, or have a man sent off they generally defend 'like there's no tomorrow'. Go figure!
They do perhaps meet Central Coast at an opportune time. The Mariners have a couple of injury concerns, *a lot of personell changes of late and perhaps some self doubt could creep in now that their winning run has come to an end. We have seen that happen to 2 of the better teams this season in Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Heart.
But it is just as likely that the ladder leaders will show exactly why they are 'top of the pile' and return to something like their best with only the 6 days between games this time.
I think they will return to the winners circle here but probably not by more than 1 goal.
* A late change of mind here remembering the fact that the 3 youngsters are also absent for Central Coast- I'm tipping a draw but have to admit that this is a winnable match for Melbourne Victory and possibly their last chance of the season to make an impression on the top 6. A draw just won't do in terms of League standing and team confidence. Another one would make it 11 for the season and they just could 'draw' themselves out of finals contention on that count alone
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at odds of $2.85+. Conversely $2.40 about an away team isn't nearly enough.
Although a draw looks a distinct possibility for this match for some reason betting agencies never offer the $4 odds that are required, unless one of the teams are long odds on.
Central Coast to win by 1 goal and worth considering that more than 2.5 goals in this match is twice as likely than under 2.5 goals historically.
*That price for the home team looks a little more enticing now though I still think a draw is the most likely result.
Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Heart 11/2 Ausgrid Stadium 4:30 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012
Newcastle Jets 2.20
Draw 3.35
Melbourne Heart 3.05
Head To Head;
All Time- Newcastle 2, Heart 2, Draws 1
This Fixture- Newcastle 1, Heart 1, Draw 1
This Season- Heart 3- Newcastle 0 (12/11/11)
Newcastle 3- Heart 2 (8/10/11)
Form Guide;
Newcastle come into this off the back of 2 very rare away wins and the only time they have won 2 games 'on the bounce' this season. They have only lost 2 of their last 8 matches and both have been by a solitary goal. The system GaryVan Egmond insisted on developing appears to be taking root.
Very surprising to see them put 3 goals on Sydney FC last week in the first 45 minutes. That eventually proved to be a winning lead but there were anxious moments in the second half with Sydney clawing 2 goals back (and opportunies squandered after that too) before Newcastle gained the upper hand with a couple of clinical finishes. Not a completely convincing performance despite the scoreline, but nevertheless a confidence builder to make a good fist of a finals push until the end of the season.
They are normally very hard to beat at home and have won 5, lost 3 and drawn 1 of their 9 matches at Ausgrid Stadum this year. The 3 losses have all been by 1 goal.
Melbourne Heart have become the enigma of this years competition. Riding high 8 games ago of the back of 5 consecutive wins, they have failed to win in their last 7 and only scored 6 goals in the process. They completely dominated the Mariners a month ago but lost in the last few minutes to a sucker punch. They were then good value for a draw against Brisbane and last week had the better of the the match in the local Derby but failed to convert 1 or 2 guilt edged chances albeit the Victory goalkeeper had a very solid match.
They are yet to win a match without Captain Fred this season and he will be absent again for this one.
The big bonus for them last week was the amazing debutante performance of Craig Goodwin. He deserves all the plaudits that have been thrown his way especially considering the massive hole he had to fill in the absence of Aziz Behich. The left fullback position is pivotal to Hearts' formation it seems and they have lost nothing with the introduction of this bloke.
Injuries/Replacements;
Newcastle are virtually at full strength here despite losing Ben Kantarovski to the Olyroos. His absence certainly posed no problems for them last week.
Conversely Melbourne Heart are nowhere near full strength. Captain Fred and vice captain Matt Thompson are still missing and that is a lot of influence to lose.
They also have 3 players with the Olyroo squad though I'm not sure the affect was dramatic in the last performance against their cross town rival.
The bonus from that match was the game time given to the likes of Shroj, Colossimo and Reid. They should strip fitter for this match and between them they have immense experience, which goes some way to replacing that lost through the absence of Fred & Thompson.
Some talk of Kristian Sarkies missing this one. His dead ball skills could be missed if he is absent.
Brazilian Maycon coming in though could be beneficial. He has had precious little game time this season but has been effective in the past coming off the bench.
Prediction;
Hard to tip against a Newcastle side who seem to be coming good at the right time and they should be full of confidence for this clash.
Interesting to see the intense passion between fans and Players last week at the SFS after they scored 1 or 2 of their goals. Emotions obviously run deep at the club which can only be a positive for them in their current form. They meet their opposition at an opportune time, still vulnerable with a disjointed line up and facing a road trip that many teams find too daunting.
Melbourne Heart need to play with a lot more intensity than they did in their last away match in Wellington, a similarly fatal road trip for most teams.
Without Fred (and Thompson) it is hard to see them coming away with 3 points here but if they happen to regain their scoring touch in this game there is no doubt they will be competitive. Just not sure this is the game where they can turn their fortunes around.
I'm tipping Newcastle to just have too much momentum and intensity for Heart here.
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy dictates that $2.20 is good enough odds to take on Newcastle in a Home game context. If you can still get that it would be a bonus.
Melbourne Heart aren't good value for an away team though they are drifting to somewhere near it with some betting agencies. Doubtful they will get to the $3.75 required though.
Jeremy Brockie back in scoring form and is now the teams top scorer with a great return of 8 goals considering he is ostensibly a wide player. He just might be worth an investment as 1st goal scorer. He had scored all his goals at home until last week and now back to his favoured stomping ground he could really run amok!
Sydney FC v Perth Glory 11/2 Sydney Football Stadium 6:45 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012
Sydney FC 2.30
Draw 3.25
Perth Glory 2.95
Head to Head;
All Time- Sydney 9, Perth 4, Draws 7
This Fixture- Sydney 4, Perth 2, Draws 2
This Season- Sydney 1 Perth 1 (18/01 Campelltown)
Perth 0 Sydney 1 (12/11/11)
Form Guide;
Sydney suffered their worst defeat of the season last week without doubt. Losing by 3 goals at home as favourite will have done nothing whatsoever for team morale. They have only won 1 of their last 9 matches and conceded 22 goals in the process.They now have the 2nd worst home record in the League with only Adelaide more profiligate in defence (only 1 more).
Possibly more concerning is their Home form at the SFS this season, whereby they have conspired to lose 5 of 9 matches with 2 draws. And the 2 wins have been against Cellar Dwellars Gold Coast both by a solitary goal.
In complete contrast Perth come into this clash with oodles of confidence off the back of 8 unbeaten games including 5 wins. Incredibly they have scored 11 goals in their last 2 outings and only conceded once. Form doesn't come much hotter than that! They were irrepressible last Sunday against Gold Coast and could quite easily have added to an impressive 4-0 scoreline. They have won 3 of their last 4 Away matches which can only add to the positivity for this clash.
Injuries/Replacements;
Sydney have lost right full back Sebastain Ryall to the Olyroos and have lost key Striker Mark Bridge for this one. That won't help an attacking lineup that is struggling to match what the oppositon can conjure up in recent times.
Jamie Coyne comes in for Ryall.
Brett Emerton returning is a big bonus though. His energy was missed against Newcastle and he should ensure that Sydney will at least keep going to the bitter end in this one.
I'd expect young Winger Joel Chianese to get more game time in this one. He was pretty impressive in his little cameo debut last week, adding some pace and penetration on the left. It's a bit much to ask in expecting him to be a game breaker here though.
Perth are at full strengh and actually have more players at their disposal than last week with a couple returning from injuries.
Prediction;
I just can't look past Perth winning this and rate them the best bet of the round. There are heaps of positives for them and far too many negatives for the home team in this one.
If Sydney can turn their loss around from last week it is possible they could get something out of the game but on current form their is just no comparison between these 2.
Bet Advice;
Once again though long term betting strategy dictates that you back Sydney here at the reasonable home team odds. Head to Head history supports them too but I can't recommend backing them and good luck if you do!
Perth aren't great odds for an away team but on current form that quote looks generous.
Liam Miller for Perth looks the best value bet for first goal scorer @ $15. He did so last week and is one of the more creative players in their side.
Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar 12/2 Westpac Stadium 2:00 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012
Wellington Phoenix 2.55
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar 2.55
Head To Head;
All Time- Wellington 2, Brisbane 8, Draws 2.
This Fixture- Wellington 2, Brisbane 2, Draws 2
This Season- Wellington 2 Brisbane 0 (14/12/11)
Brisbane 1 Wellington 1 (13/11/11)
Form Guide;
Wellington probably face their sternest test this season but do so off a string of 4 consecutive wins and a new found ability to win Away from home (3 in a row). At Home they are always that little bit more adventurous and often respond to their crowds urgings particularly in second halfs. At home this season they have played 10, won 6, Lost 3 and drawn only 1. In that time they have scored 22 goals, averaging 2 goals per game, against a return of only 7 goals away from home. They have scored 11 goals in their last 6 games and conceded only 4.
Brisbane travel across the Tasman off one of their best wins of the season, toppling the ladder leaders and ending their 15 match unbeaten streak. They played with stunning intensity in the first stanza there, and whilst conceding most of the possession in the second half they produced a reslilient defensive performance which should only add to the confidence today. That was actually their first away win in 8 games and only their 3rd win from their past 12 performances.
Injuries/Replacements;
Wellington have to do without Manny Muscat today who is suspended. He has been an important player for them this season, with his overlapping runs from right back and determination in defence. Probably one of, if not the most improved players in the A-League and his presence would have been precious today, linking with the dangerous Ifill on the right in attack and preventing attacking raids from the left in the shape of Broich and the young Fitzgerald. Vince
Lia comes in for him but it's unlikely he can provide Wellington with quite the same potency in an attacking sense.
Brisbane couldn't be in better shape personnel wise. Broich and Henrique should be firing on all cylinders now and just about every player in their squad is available for selection. Even Mitch Nicholls comes back from Olyroo duty due to an international suspension, and he too might get some game time.
Prediction;
A very difficult task to separate these 2 teams, who are both probably in peak form right now. It may well come down to who scores first in reality. If It's Wellington then the home team might be too good as they will look to counter attack from there on in and they do finish off their matches very well in the 2nd half at home. If it's Brisbane though I think they can go and win the match because the game will open up and they can pick off Wellington again given those circumstances. Apparently Ricky Herbert is looking to starve Brisbane of possession in this game to stem their attacking threat. How well they do that will probably decide the outcome.
I'm tipping Brisbane to score first and go on to win an entertaining match but this one could go either way. The loss of Muscat could be crucial and a Brisbane team at full strength will have no excuse for not coming away with the 3 points. This clash rarely produces a draw so I'm going to plump for Brisbane on that basis. There is a lot at stake though, with the winner a very realistic chance of reeling in the League Leaders in the coming weeks. On that score you just wonder whether there will be a winning outcome. Both teams could just cancel each other out being at the top of their respective games.
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy once again dictates that you back the home team here, who in actual fact are great value, being in such great form, and possibly the most potent team in the Competition on thier own turf . That same advice has already been successful 3/3 times this round so should be taken seriously regardless of where your sentiments lie. And a draw historically appears unlikley which improves the percentages for you slightly.
Either side winning by 1 goal could be a good option and the likes of Mohammed Adnan for Brisbane (free kick taker and good in the air) and Tim Brown (breaking from midfield and also good in the air) are probably the best value bets to be first scorer.
Gold Coast United v Adelaide United 12/2 4:30 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012
Gold Coast United 2.15
Draw 3.25
Adelaide United 3.20
Head To Head;
All Time- Gold Coast 3, Adelaide 2, Draws 4
This Fixture- Draws 3 (only games played in Qld) 0-0, 0-0, 1-1.
This Season- Adelaide 0 Gold Coast 3 (16/12/11)
Adelaide 2 Gold Coast 1 (11/11/11)
Form Guide;
Both sides are really struggling for form coming into this clash.
Gold Coast probably put in their worst performance last week against an impressive Perth side who really could have won a lot easier than even the 4-0 scoreline suggested.
Prior to that the Queenslanders did well to get out of jail in the final moments against Melbourne Victory in Hobart but it seems it did nothing for the morale of the team after last weeks haemorrhage.
It is now 8 matches since they won a game but on the positive side they have only twice at home this season, not too bad for a side languishing at the foot of the table.
Adelaide are not faring much better of late losing 3 of their last 4 matches and it is now 7 matches since they last won. Perhaps significantly though their away form is much better than their home form. They have only lost one of their last 7 and that was a very frustrating and narrow 3-2 defeat to the Central Coast where they led at half time and were clearly the best side at that point. Possibly a worry that they have only won 1 of those last 7 with 5 draws but this is possibly their best chance for a while of reaping a 3 point away game dividend.
Injuries/Replacements;
Gold Coast are decimated with injuries coming into this clash with a number of key players likely to miss the game or at least have bit parts in it. James Brown deinitely out, Rigters is doubtful and so is their key midfielder Jungschlager. Rozic in defence might be a casualty also.
I'm not aware of any major problems in the Adelaide camp so they get every chance here to exploit a Gold Coast team down on Personnel and confidence.
Prediction;
History certainly says a draw but I'm thinking that Gold Coast have too many key players out and/or struggling for fitness. Adelaide need to find some form and could well do so with the added lure of an Asian Champions League campaign luming if they can beat an Indonesian side on Thursday. That should give them added motivation for this one. If they can't do the job here in the shape of 3 points, then their top 6 aspirations are dead and buried. They have a very decent player roster and only need to rise to the occasion here.
Bet Advice;
Conversely Gold Coast are the long term betting strategy candidates being the price they are as a home team. Personally I think the best they can manage is a draw but that is why they are at generous odds in reality.
Sergio Van Dyke possibly the best option to score first for Adelaide. He is reasonably prolific, takes penalties and occasionally bursts the net with a fierce free kick. Only $5.50 on offer but that is good enough for me.
Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners AAMI Park 2012-02-10T09:00:00 1 7:00 PM, Fri 10 Feb 2012
Melbourne Victory 2.85
Draw 3.25
Central Coast Mariners 2.40
Head to Head;
All Time- Melbourne Victory 8, Central Coast 7, Draws 3.
This Fixture- Melbourne Victory 3, Central Coast 3, Draws 3
This Season- Central Coast Mariners 2 Melbourne Victory 0 (4/01/12)
Central Coast Mariners 0 Melbourne Victory 0 (12/11/11)
Form Guide;
Melbourne Victory are unbeaten at home this season from 11 games but have won only 3 of them with 8 draws. They have been ahead in their last 3 home matches but failed to win. In fact at home this season they haven't managed to win a second half in regards to outscoring their opponents.
In reality though their home form is far superior to their away form and the old maxim that a home crowd is worth a goal certainly rings true for them.
Central Coast come into this game after losing their first game in 16 matches. They lead the competition by 7 points and have a game in hand (Gold Coast).
Their away form this season is without peer winning 7 of 9 and they have won their last 7.
They had the better of the second half in their last match against Brisbane Roar but failed to trouble the scorer. That was their first game in 14 days due to their abandoned match the week prior, and it appears the break didn't assist them going on their first half performance.
Injuries/Replacements;
Melbourne Victory are likely to play new Spanish Defender Ubay Luzardo if Captain Adrian Leijer succumbs to a groin problem. Grand Brebner is also missing with an ankle problem which could see him miss up to 4 games. This necessitates a change to the midfield where youngster Jimmy Jeggo is tipped to make his debut. He has reportedly been impressive in a midfield role as Captain of the Youth team.
Central Coast also have significant injury concerns with Pedj Boic and Troy Hearfield unavailable for this one. The former in particular will be sorely missed for his lung busting overlapping runs from right full back. He has been very influential in a number of games for the Mariners this season.
* Add to that the fact that Central Coast are still without 3 key youngsters on Olyroos duty and the loss of Matt Simon some weeks ago and this is almost a 2nd team that is being fielded. They still have the same solid Centre Back pairing of Zwaanswijk & Wilkinson, and the impressive Michael McGlinchey in midfield, but that's about it in terms of familiarity.
Prediction;
I couldn't possibly tip Melbourne Victory to win the way they are playing. To say they are below par would be an understatement. If they do happen to lead the match they are likely to cough up a goal late, and if they don't concede, or have a man sent off they generally defend 'like there's no tomorrow'. Go figure!
They do perhaps meet Central Coast at an opportune time. The Mariners have a couple of injury concerns, *a lot of personell changes of late and perhaps some self doubt could creep in now that their winning run has come to an end. We have seen that happen to 2 of the better teams this season in Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Heart.
But it is just as likely that the ladder leaders will show exactly why they are 'top of the pile' and return to something like their best with only the 6 days between games this time.
I think they will return to the winners circle here but probably not by more than 1 goal.
* A late change of mind here remembering the fact that the 3 youngsters are also absent for Central Coast- I'm tipping a draw but have to admit that this is a winnable match for Melbourne Victory and possibly their last chance of the season to make an impression on the top 6. A draw just won't do in terms of League standing and team confidence. Another one would make it 11 for the season and they just could 'draw' themselves out of finals contention on that count alone
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at odds of $2.85+. Conversely $2.40 about an away team isn't nearly enough.
Although a draw looks a distinct possibility for this match for some reason betting agencies never offer the $4 odds that are required, unless one of the teams are long odds on.
Central Coast to win by 1 goal and worth considering that more than 2.5 goals in this match is twice as likely than under 2.5 goals historically.
*That price for the home team looks a little more enticing now though I still think a draw is the most likely result.
Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Heart 11/2 Ausgrid Stadium 4:30 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012
Newcastle Jets 2.20
Draw 3.35
Melbourne Heart 3.05
Head To Head;
All Time- Newcastle 2, Heart 2, Draws 1
This Fixture- Newcastle 1, Heart 1, Draw 1
This Season- Heart 3- Newcastle 0 (12/11/11)
Newcastle 3- Heart 2 (8/10/11)
Form Guide;
Newcastle come into this off the back of 2 very rare away wins and the only time they have won 2 games 'on the bounce' this season. They have only lost 2 of their last 8 matches and both have been by a solitary goal. The system GaryVan Egmond insisted on developing appears to be taking root.
Very surprising to see them put 3 goals on Sydney FC last week in the first 45 minutes. That eventually proved to be a winning lead but there were anxious moments in the second half with Sydney clawing 2 goals back (and opportunies squandered after that too) before Newcastle gained the upper hand with a couple of clinical finishes. Not a completely convincing performance despite the scoreline, but nevertheless a confidence builder to make a good fist of a finals push until the end of the season.
They are normally very hard to beat at home and have won 5, lost 3 and drawn 1 of their 9 matches at Ausgrid Stadum this year. The 3 losses have all been by 1 goal.
Melbourne Heart have become the enigma of this years competition. Riding high 8 games ago of the back of 5 consecutive wins, they have failed to win in their last 7 and only scored 6 goals in the process. They completely dominated the Mariners a month ago but lost in the last few minutes to a sucker punch. They were then good value for a draw against Brisbane and last week had the better of the the match in the local Derby but failed to convert 1 or 2 guilt edged chances albeit the Victory goalkeeper had a very solid match.
They are yet to win a match without Captain Fred this season and he will be absent again for this one.
The big bonus for them last week was the amazing debutante performance of Craig Goodwin. He deserves all the plaudits that have been thrown his way especially considering the massive hole he had to fill in the absence of Aziz Behich. The left fullback position is pivotal to Hearts' formation it seems and they have lost nothing with the introduction of this bloke.
Injuries/Replacements;
Newcastle are virtually at full strength here despite losing Ben Kantarovski to the Olyroos. His absence certainly posed no problems for them last week.
Conversely Melbourne Heart are nowhere near full strength. Captain Fred and vice captain Matt Thompson are still missing and that is a lot of influence to lose.
They also have 3 players with the Olyroo squad though I'm not sure the affect was dramatic in the last performance against their cross town rival.
The bonus from that match was the game time given to the likes of Shroj, Colossimo and Reid. They should strip fitter for this match and between them they have immense experience, which goes some way to replacing that lost through the absence of Fred & Thompson.
Some talk of Kristian Sarkies missing this one. His dead ball skills could be missed if he is absent.
Brazilian Maycon coming in though could be beneficial. He has had precious little game time this season but has been effective in the past coming off the bench.
Prediction;
Hard to tip against a Newcastle side who seem to be coming good at the right time and they should be full of confidence for this clash.
Interesting to see the intense passion between fans and Players last week at the SFS after they scored 1 or 2 of their goals. Emotions obviously run deep at the club which can only be a positive for them in their current form. They meet their opposition at an opportune time, still vulnerable with a disjointed line up and facing a road trip that many teams find too daunting.
Melbourne Heart need to play with a lot more intensity than they did in their last away match in Wellington, a similarly fatal road trip for most teams.
Without Fred (and Thompson) it is hard to see them coming away with 3 points here but if they happen to regain their scoring touch in this game there is no doubt they will be competitive. Just not sure this is the game where they can turn their fortunes around.
I'm tipping Newcastle to just have too much momentum and intensity for Heart here.
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy dictates that $2.20 is good enough odds to take on Newcastle in a Home game context. If you can still get that it would be a bonus.
Melbourne Heart aren't good value for an away team though they are drifting to somewhere near it with some betting agencies. Doubtful they will get to the $3.75 required though.
Jeremy Brockie back in scoring form and is now the teams top scorer with a great return of 8 goals considering he is ostensibly a wide player. He just might be worth an investment as 1st goal scorer. He had scored all his goals at home until last week and now back to his favoured stomping ground he could really run amok!
Sydney FC v Perth Glory 11/2 Sydney Football Stadium 6:45 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012
Sydney FC 2.30
Draw 3.25
Perth Glory 2.95
Head to Head;
All Time- Sydney 9, Perth 4, Draws 7
This Fixture- Sydney 4, Perth 2, Draws 2
This Season- Sydney 1 Perth 1 (18/01 Campelltown)
Perth 0 Sydney 1 (12/11/11)
Form Guide;
Sydney suffered their worst defeat of the season last week without doubt. Losing by 3 goals at home as favourite will have done nothing whatsoever for team morale. They have only won 1 of their last 9 matches and conceded 22 goals in the process.They now have the 2nd worst home record in the League with only Adelaide more profiligate in defence (only 1 more).
Possibly more concerning is their Home form at the SFS this season, whereby they have conspired to lose 5 of 9 matches with 2 draws. And the 2 wins have been against Cellar Dwellars Gold Coast both by a solitary goal.
In complete contrast Perth come into this clash with oodles of confidence off the back of 8 unbeaten games including 5 wins. Incredibly they have scored 11 goals in their last 2 outings and only conceded once. Form doesn't come much hotter than that! They were irrepressible last Sunday against Gold Coast and could quite easily have added to an impressive 4-0 scoreline. They have won 3 of their last 4 Away matches which can only add to the positivity for this clash.
Injuries/Replacements;
Sydney have lost right full back Sebastain Ryall to the Olyroos and have lost key Striker Mark Bridge for this one. That won't help an attacking lineup that is struggling to match what the oppositon can conjure up in recent times.
Jamie Coyne comes in for Ryall.
Brett Emerton returning is a big bonus though. His energy was missed against Newcastle and he should ensure that Sydney will at least keep going to the bitter end in this one.
I'd expect young Winger Joel Chianese to get more game time in this one. He was pretty impressive in his little cameo debut last week, adding some pace and penetration on the left. It's a bit much to ask in expecting him to be a game breaker here though.
Perth are at full strengh and actually have more players at their disposal than last week with a couple returning from injuries.
Prediction;
I just can't look past Perth winning this and rate them the best bet of the round. There are heaps of positives for them and far too many negatives for the home team in this one.
If Sydney can turn their loss around from last week it is possible they could get something out of the game but on current form their is just no comparison between these 2.
Bet Advice;
Once again though long term betting strategy dictates that you back Sydney here at the reasonable home team odds. Head to Head history supports them too but I can't recommend backing them and good luck if you do!
Perth aren't great odds for an away team but on current form that quote looks generous.
Liam Miller for Perth looks the best value bet for first goal scorer @ $15. He did so last week and is one of the more creative players in their side.
Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar 12/2 Westpac Stadium 2:00 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012
Wellington Phoenix 2.55
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar 2.55
Head To Head;
All Time- Wellington 2, Brisbane 8, Draws 2.
This Fixture- Wellington 2, Brisbane 2, Draws 2
This Season- Wellington 2 Brisbane 0 (14/12/11)
Brisbane 1 Wellington 1 (13/11/11)
Form Guide;
Wellington probably face their sternest test this season but do so off a string of 4 consecutive wins and a new found ability to win Away from home (3 in a row). At Home they are always that little bit more adventurous and often respond to their crowds urgings particularly in second halfs. At home this season they have played 10, won 6, Lost 3 and drawn only 1. In that time they have scored 22 goals, averaging 2 goals per game, against a return of only 7 goals away from home. They have scored 11 goals in their last 6 games and conceded only 4.
Brisbane travel across the Tasman off one of their best wins of the season, toppling the ladder leaders and ending their 15 match unbeaten streak. They played with stunning intensity in the first stanza there, and whilst conceding most of the possession in the second half they produced a reslilient defensive performance which should only add to the confidence today. That was actually their first away win in 8 games and only their 3rd win from their past 12 performances.
Injuries/Replacements;
Wellington have to do without Manny Muscat today who is suspended. He has been an important player for them this season, with his overlapping runs from right back and determination in defence. Probably one of, if not the most improved players in the A-League and his presence would have been precious today, linking with the dangerous Ifill on the right in attack and preventing attacking raids from the left in the shape of Broich and the young Fitzgerald. Vince
Lia comes in for him but it's unlikely he can provide Wellington with quite the same potency in an attacking sense.
Brisbane couldn't be in better shape personnel wise. Broich and Henrique should be firing on all cylinders now and just about every player in their squad is available for selection. Even Mitch Nicholls comes back from Olyroo duty due to an international suspension, and he too might get some game time.
Prediction;
A very difficult task to separate these 2 teams, who are both probably in peak form right now. It may well come down to who scores first in reality. If It's Wellington then the home team might be too good as they will look to counter attack from there on in and they do finish off their matches very well in the 2nd half at home. If it's Brisbane though I think they can go and win the match because the game will open up and they can pick off Wellington again given those circumstances. Apparently Ricky Herbert is looking to starve Brisbane of possession in this game to stem their attacking threat. How well they do that will probably decide the outcome.
I'm tipping Brisbane to score first and go on to win an entertaining match but this one could go either way. The loss of Muscat could be crucial and a Brisbane team at full strength will have no excuse for not coming away with the 3 points. This clash rarely produces a draw so I'm going to plump for Brisbane on that basis. There is a lot at stake though, with the winner a very realistic chance of reeling in the League Leaders in the coming weeks. On that score you just wonder whether there will be a winning outcome. Both teams could just cancel each other out being at the top of their respective games.
Bet Advice;
Long term betting strategy once again dictates that you back the home team here, who in actual fact are great value, being in such great form, and possibly the most potent team in the Competition on thier own turf . That same advice has already been successful 3/3 times this round so should be taken seriously regardless of where your sentiments lie. And a draw historically appears unlikley which improves the percentages for you slightly.
Either side winning by 1 goal could be a good option and the likes of Mohammed Adnan for Brisbane (free kick taker and good in the air) and Tim Brown (breaking from midfield and also good in the air) are probably the best value bets to be first scorer.
Gold Coast United v Adelaide United 12/2 4:30 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012
Gold Coast United 2.15
Draw 3.25
Adelaide United 3.20
Head To Head;
All Time- Gold Coast 3, Adelaide 2, Draws 4
This Fixture- Draws 3 (only games played in Qld) 0-0, 0-0, 1-1.
This Season- Adelaide 0 Gold Coast 3 (16/12/11)
Adelaide 2 Gold Coast 1 (11/11/11)
Form Guide;
Both sides are really struggling for form coming into this clash.
Gold Coast probably put in their worst performance last week against an impressive Perth side who really could have won a lot easier than even the 4-0 scoreline suggested.
Prior to that the Queenslanders did well to get out of jail in the final moments against Melbourne Victory in Hobart but it seems it did nothing for the morale of the team after last weeks haemorrhage.
It is now 8 matches since they won a game but on the positive side they have only twice at home this season, not too bad for a side languishing at the foot of the table.
Adelaide are not faring much better of late losing 3 of their last 4 matches and it is now 7 matches since they last won. Perhaps significantly though their away form is much better than their home form. They have only lost one of their last 7 and that was a very frustrating and narrow 3-2 defeat to the Central Coast where they led at half time and were clearly the best side at that point. Possibly a worry that they have only won 1 of those last 7 with 5 draws but this is possibly their best chance for a while of reaping a 3 point away game dividend.
Injuries/Replacements;
Gold Coast are decimated with injuries coming into this clash with a number of key players likely to miss the game or at least have bit parts in it. James Brown deinitely out, Rigters is doubtful and so is their key midfielder Jungschlager. Rozic in defence might be a casualty also.
I'm not aware of any major problems in the Adelaide camp so they get every chance here to exploit a Gold Coast team down on Personnel and confidence.
Prediction;
History certainly says a draw but I'm thinking that Gold Coast have too many key players out and/or struggling for fitness. Adelaide need to find some form and could well do so with the added lure of an Asian Champions League campaign luming if they can beat an Indonesian side on Thursday. That should give them added motivation for this one. If they can't do the job here in the shape of 3 points, then their top 6 aspirations are dead and buried. They have a very decent player roster and only need to rise to the occasion here.
Bet Advice;
Conversely Gold Coast are the long term betting strategy candidates being the price they are as a home team. Personally I think the best they can manage is a draw but that is why they are at generous odds in reality.
Sergio Van Dyke possibly the best option to score first for Adelaide. He is reasonably prolific, takes penalties and occasionally bursts the net with a fierce free kick. Only $5.50 on offer but that is good enough for me.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Can The Mariners Do A Devon Loch?
It’s not every day that I can say that watching the A-League’sTV coverage has helped me to get a bellyful of laughs!
Let’s face it, football can be a very tense kind of game for supporters of one team or the other, or for those who have invested some of their hard-earned in the result. If you’ve backed Team A to win and they are leading Team B by one goal with minutes to go, and Team A’s goal is under siege, you’re more likely to be reaching for the
heart pills than crying tears of laughter.
I personally have not had too many laughs watching the A-League – oh, alright then, I will admit that witnessing the occasional Liam Reddy clanger or seeing one hapless defender score two own goals in one game this season has given me the giggles – but I must thank Fox Sport’s coverage of last weekend’s game between the Brisbane Roar and Newcastle Jets for the biggest laugh I’ve had for ages over sport.
With the Roar trailing 1-0 deep into the second half, commentator Robbie Slater was asked if he thought the Central Coast Mariners, eleven points clear of the Roar, could still find a way to lose the “minor” premiership. Slater said he didn’t think so, and then said that the question reminded him of a comment made by Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson not so long ago when he was asked a similar question. I can’t remember whether the question referred to Ferguson’s own team, but it matters not. What mattered was Ferguson’s reply, which was along the lines of “they’d have to do a Devon Lock to lose it from here”.
That intrigued me.
Who the hell was Devon Lock? Was he perhaps some Pommy athlete who ran out of puff in a distance race, or
something along those lines? I certainly could not remember anyone of that name.
In fact, the reference intrigued me enough to go googling the name 'Devon Lock" when the game had finished and I’d turned off the TV. A few mouse clicks later it turned out it was not “Devon Lock”, but “Devon Loch” that Ferguson had referred to. And Devon Loch was not a person, but a horse. A horse which had lost the Grand National Steeplechase – the United Kingdom’s top race over the jumps – way back in 1956 in sensational circumstances.
Then it was off to Youtube for me...
Now, maybe it’s because I am such a HUGE fan of the English royal family that what I found there made me laugh like a drain. In fact, the more times I see it, the funnier it seems to get. Here it is, for those who share a somewhat cruel sense of humour that has no problem laughing at other people’s misfortunes.
Oh, and if you happen to think that Australian jumps racing is dangerous, or potentially cruel to horses, you might need to get a load of the extended replay of the race that is also available on Youtube, rather than the shortened version accessible with this link.
Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62fPLtL8h7s
Let’s face it, football can be a very tense kind of game for supporters of one team or the other, or for those who have invested some of their hard-earned in the result. If you’ve backed Team A to win and they are leading Team B by one goal with minutes to go, and Team A’s goal is under siege, you’re more likely to be reaching for the
heart pills than crying tears of laughter.
I personally have not had too many laughs watching the A-League – oh, alright then, I will admit that witnessing the occasional Liam Reddy clanger or seeing one hapless defender score two own goals in one game this season has given me the giggles – but I must thank Fox Sport’s coverage of last weekend’s game between the Brisbane Roar and Newcastle Jets for the biggest laugh I’ve had for ages over sport.
With the Roar trailing 1-0 deep into the second half, commentator Robbie Slater was asked if he thought the Central Coast Mariners, eleven points clear of the Roar, could still find a way to lose the “minor” premiership. Slater said he didn’t think so, and then said that the question reminded him of a comment made by Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson not so long ago when he was asked a similar question. I can’t remember whether the question referred to Ferguson’s own team, but it matters not. What mattered was Ferguson’s reply, which was along the lines of “they’d have to do a Devon Lock to lose it from here”.
That intrigued me.
Who the hell was Devon Lock? Was he perhaps some Pommy athlete who ran out of puff in a distance race, or
something along those lines? I certainly could not remember anyone of that name.
In fact, the reference intrigued me enough to go googling the name 'Devon Lock" when the game had finished and I’d turned off the TV. A few mouse clicks later it turned out it was not “Devon Lock”, but “Devon Loch” that Ferguson had referred to. And Devon Loch was not a person, but a horse. A horse which had lost the Grand National Steeplechase – the United Kingdom’s top race over the jumps – way back in 1956 in sensational circumstances.
Then it was off to Youtube for me...
Now, maybe it’s because I am such a HUGE fan of the English royal family that what I found there made me laugh like a drain. In fact, the more times I see it, the funnier it seems to get. Here it is, for those who share a somewhat cruel sense of humour that has no problem laughing at other people’s misfortunes.
Oh, and if you happen to think that Australian jumps racing is dangerous, or potentially cruel to horses, you might need to get a load of the extended replay of the race that is also available on Youtube, rather than the shortened version accessible with this link.
Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62fPLtL8h7s
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