I may be only previewing the one match this weekend with a view to investing at value;
Brisbane Roar $1.60
Draw $3.75
Newcastle Jets $5.25
Once again here we see Brisbane Roar at a very short quote at their home of Suncorp Stadium. It isn't warranted though because they haven't managed to establish anywhere near the consistency of the past 2 seasons, and find themselves languishing near the bottom of the table, certainly not a familiar place for them to be. They have only scored 6 times in their past 5 matches (4 in one game) and have conceded far too many (10) in the process. And they have lost 2 of their last 3 home matches.
Defensively they could have major problems with Captain Matt Smith and fellow defender Ivan Franjic away on Socceroos duty. That is a massive hole to fill and one of the replacements could be Matt Jurman who hasn't been in great form of late.
Added to that this has to be the most bizarre matchup in the A-League with this fixture only providing 1 win for the home side (Brisbane) in 11 games. Even worse, only 2 others have been drawn with a total of 8 losses. Interestingly 6 of those have been 1-0 losses! Coincidentally when looking at the reverse fixture in Newcastle it is an almost identical situtation with the home side (Newcastle) winning only 1 of 12 with 4 draws and 7 losses.
Newcastle are probably the only A-League team this week to field a full squad unaffected by call ups to National duty. They have had no trouble scoring so far this year but also have struggled to plug the gaps at the other end of the park . You'd have to say that they are far better placed coming into this fixture than on most other occasions in the past few seasons, and with a better and more experienced squad. So they should come North feeling very confident of taking the 3 points especially after their fighting performance of last week, coming from behind to snatch a 3-3 draw against Melbourne Heart, also on the road.
At $5.25+ they are tremendous value of causing an upset here. A draw is a big possibility but once again the $4.10 required (only approximately 25% of Soccer games world wide are drawn) isn't offered as yet and is highly doubful to be.
Newcastle Jets 1-0 is being offered @ $13 so that too might be worth a speculator.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
A-League Round 7 (2012-2013)
Brisbane Roar $1.67
Draw $3.75
Sydney FC $4.75
History;
23 Matches- Brisbane 9 wins, Sydney 6 wins with 8 draws.
This is an outstanding fixture for Brisbane Roar who have beaten the Sydneysiders 6 times in succession at this venue and have won 7 of the last 10 clashes home and away.
Squad Changes;
Besart Berisha returns for the home team whilst Sydney also have the promising youngster Joel Chianese available for selection. Mitch Malia is rested for Sydney and Terry Antonis is unavailable due to Young Socceroos commitments.
Form;
Both teams are really struggling atm with Brisbane having lost 3 on the trot and Sydney suffering 2 morale sapping defeats in their past 2 matches, conceding 10 goals in the process.
Preview;
This is really a must win for Brisbane who need to reignite their season after completely losing their way in recent weeks. Everything looked rosy after round 2, business as usual it seemed after an impressive 5-0 demolition of Melbourne Victory in Round 2. That was a bit of a grudge match for the Roar who may have raised their level a couple of notches in the presence of former coach Ange Postecoglou, who had a slightly acrimonious departure at the end of last season.
This could well be a grudge match too with Besart Berisha (the Albanian Beast!) set to lock horns once again with Pascal Bosschaart of Sydney FC who only returned from injury last week. Who could forget the last clash between these 2 sides and the melee that erupted after the miraculous and dramatic come from behind late win in January.
Whether that gives Brisbane a psyhological edge in this one is debatable. It may be just as likely to spur Sydney on and this matchup does give on the feel of a local Derby, where neither side is likely to give an inch.
This is a better offensive Sydney unit this time around with Del Pierro and the slick Panamanian striker Yairo Yau almost certain to cause problems for them defensively. Joel Chianese didn't play in that last encounter and neither did the likes of Ali Abaas, Paul Reid or even goalkeeper Ivan Nicevski.
The problem for Sydney lies in defence and it was pretty much their Achilles heel all last season too. On the bright side for them Brisbane have only scored once in their past 3 matches so they have little to fear coming into this clash. They are a team in a bit of turmoil though. No current coach after the shock departure of Ian Crook and they have been abysmal without Del Pierro on the pitch in their past 2 matches. He didn't play in the slaughter against Central Coast and all 3 goals were scored after he was replaced last week against Melbourne Victory. To get out of this one unscathed they will need their iconic player to see out nearly all of this one you'd suspect.
Brisbane must surely drop defender Matt Jurman for this one after his ordinary showing last week. He was found wanting in 3 of the goals scored against them and Brisbane need to be more resilient in this against a pretty potent Sydney attack that has scored 4 times in their past 2 matches.
Tip;
This looks like a good opportunity for Brisbane to get back on track providing their is no more complacency and they play to somewhere near their full potential. There is a danger that the desire is no longer there after back to back championship titles but they did receive a timely wake up call last week in Melbourne which should steel them for this one. Historically there is only one team who can win though it might pay to remember that Syney did have them on toast in this same fixture last season before that dramatic finale.
Bet advice;
History aside there is no way in the wide world that the disparity in odds between these 2 is justified. Brisbane haven't won in 3 and were soundly beaten last week whilst Sydney did have 3 points in the bag last week before surrendering late. $5 is available about them with some operators (Unitab prices shown) and is certainly more than sufficient value for an away team. The draw isn't enough value to take so Sydney to win at that price will have to do me.
Adelaide Utd $1.85
Draw $3.40
Melbourne Heart $4.10
History;
6 Matches- Adelaide 3 wins, Heart 1 win with 2 draws.
Adelaide have failed to beat Heart at home though in last 3 matches, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Squad Changes;
Sergio Van Dijk returns for Adelaide and Antony Golec returns from injury.
Form;
Adelaide sit as equal leader and have been very solid over the first 6 rounds losing only once. Of their last 3 matches they have won 2 and drew against Perth last week.
Melbourne Heart returned to form last week with a 4-1 surprise thumping of Brisbane Roar at home. That was only their 2nd win of the season and followed 3 consecutive losses.
Preview;
Adelaide have made a great start to the season off the back of a successful Asian Champions League campaign that began at the end of last season and ended at the start of this one. Ever since coach John "The Messiah" Kosmina returned to the fold last season Adelaide have been a far different proposition to the one that started that season as A-League favourites, and failed to flatter. They now have self belief and a system that fits their current squad. Dario Vidosic is a far more influential player this year to last and being fully fit is probably the reason why. The Argentinian Jeronimo up front has been a revelation, and the squad now has considerable depth particularly in attacking sense with the likes of Van Dijk, Djite and Iain Ramsay being interchanged as the coach sees fit. The defence has stability and there is always the chance that captain and goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic will pull off a miracle save or two if required.
I wouldn't say the team is in sparkling form at the moment off a slightly fortunate win against Brisbane (when they did park the Bus!) and a less than convincing draw against Perth last week. That game could have gone either way and once again Adelaide played an open enough game at Hindmarsh to reward the away team if they were good enough. As it turned out Perth weren't quite.
Melbourne Heart should take a lot out of their win against the current champions last week and they do tend to be a confidence team. It was a very significant win because it was their first win in a long time without their mercurial captain Fred who continues his horror run with injury.
They may well have found the solution in Richard Garcia. The former Hull and Socerroos midfielder had an absolute blinder last week in an attacking sense and looks a perfect foil for the more defensive minded Matt Thompson (though he can be effective in attack too). Import Josip Tadic up front was very influential last week and on may well be the signing of the season. It is doubtful there is a forward in this League that has a better touch or quicker brain on what we saw last week. And he can score at will and give quality service to fellow attackers. Great to see David Williams come off the bench last week and finish his goal with some aplomb. Perhaps he too is about to realise his early potential.
Clint Bolton is ever reliable in goal, and great on crosses, and with 2 exciting fullbacks in Aziz Behich (returning from Socceroos duty) & Michael Marrone they are always a threat to opposing defences. As a whole the team can run a bit hot and cold and the self belief is questionable at times, but they often do often relish the underdog tag which exists here. They have already claimed the big scalps of Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar in their 2 wins this season.
Tip;
Because Adelaide just might have played themselves a bit out of form last week (and possibly against Brisbane in an attacking sense) and Heart doing quite the opposite last week I can smell a bit of an upset is on the cards here. The likes of Garcia and Tadic were so impressive last week that it is hard not to see them carrying that form into this game. Adelaide are certainly beatable at home at the best of times so the Melbourne side need not die wondering here. They need to match what Adelaide throw at them or better still go on the offensive. If they do that I feel they can come away with the spoils but if they sit back and try to absorb too much pressure they might come unstuck.
Bet advice;
Once again their is a disproportionate look to the market here with Adelaide massive favourites to win because they are at home. The odds represent no value for a home team whilst the $4.00+ odds about the away team is very generous especially given the fact that they are coming off an impressive win last week and do have a good record here in recent times. I'm very happy to invest on Heart at that price.
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Draw $3.35
Central Coast Mariners $2.55
History;
21 matches- Victory 9 wins, Central Coast 7 wins with 5 draws. Niether of these teams have an outstanding record at home against each other with Victory 4/10 & Central Coast 4/11 which is quite a bit less than the norm.
Squad changes;
Matthew Foschini, Theo Markelis, Isaka Cernak & Jimmy Jeggo are all available for Melbourne Victory selection.
Adriano Pellegrino, Oliver Bozanic,. Brad McDonald Mitchell Duke & Adam Kwasnik return to the fold for Central Coast whilst Troy Hearfield misses out.
Preview;
Both sides come into this match in great form with Victory buoyed by an unexpected late win against Sydney last week which came off the back of a good home win against poor Melbourne travellers Wellington Phoenix. Under Ange Postecoglous' tutelage they are now starting to find some form and rhythm, and with that surely comes a large dose of self belief. They were probably a bit flattered last week with Sydney completely collapsing in the last 20 minutes of the match to succumb late but nevertheless it is always a filip for any team to win as they did. This is the acid test for them so far this season against an in form Central Coast team who put 7 past the same Sydney opppositon (with Del Pierro) the prior week, and then crossed the Tasman to once again put Wellington to the sword at their otherwise fortress like Westpac stadium. They are certainly the form side of the moment and come into this one with an overall +7 goal difference compared to the -4 of Victory.
The home side do grow a leg in front of an always abundant home crowd so this is no easy task for the Gosford side and they haven't won here since November 2009.
Victory have been potent in attack all season with Thompson & Rojas carving out chances at will in most games. Marcos Flores & Gui Finkler are starting to find some touch in midfield and I really can't find enough superlatives to describe the work of Adama Traore at left back. He has been sensational all season and was just immense last week against Sydney. He has one hell of an engine and his overlapping runs down the left wing in attack are going to wear a lot of teams down this season. He just keeps coming similar to Aziz Behich of Melbourne Heart but he is a slightly more robust unit.
Central Coast still don't really have a truly reconised Central Striker but Daniel Macbreen is doing an amazing job at present and the midfield trio of Hutchinson, McGlinchey & Rogic are servicing him well ably supported by their 2 overlapping fullbacks Josh Rose and Pedg Bojic. They are a team in the true sense of the word and very well drilled by coach Graham Arnold. Victory don't have the same cohesion and team spirit as their opposition and will need all the individual flair and guile of Flores, Finkler & Torres to get them over the line here.
Tip;
I'm finding it really hard to come to a conclusion on just who will win this game. It really could go either way with history no real help and the current form of both is hard to fault. I'm going for a draw and it should be an entertaining one.
Bet Advice;
If you must then take comfort in the fact that Melbourne Victory are statistically good value for a home team. The price for a draw and away win here don't cut the mustard so the home team it is!.
Newcastle Jets $1.82
Draw $3.40
Wellington Phoenix $4.25
History;
16 Matches- Newcastle 4 wins, Wellington 11 wins with only 1 draw. Last result this fixture 0-1.
Wellington have won 4 of the last 5 matches between the 2 teams though 4 of them have been in NZ.
Overall this fixture 3 wins a piece. Draws are indeed a rarity between these two.
Squad Changes;
Bernardo Robeira, Sam Galloway & Marco Jesic are available for Newcastle selection but Jacob Pepper & Taylor Regan are unavailable due to suspension.
Wellington Phoenix have Roicardo Clarke available for this one with no omissions but have several players returning from national duty for New Zealand after a midweek match in China.
Preview;
Newcastle come into this game flying high, 3rd on the table with 2 wins from their last 3 matches. They are equal top scorers in the League but have conceded quite a few more than the 2 teams above them (10 compared to 4). Emile Heskey has been sensational thus far netting 5 goals with fellow Striker Ryan Griffiths alo thriving without the burden of having to shoulder the load up front. Craig Goodwin has been exceptional at left back since signing from Melbourne Heart and James Virgili has been a revelation wide on the right. With experienced campaigners Jobe Wheelhouse and Ruben Zadkovich shoring up the midfield the attacking trio are getting well and truly enough service to be effective at present.
Wellington in contrast come to this fixture in lamentable form losing 3 on the trot though it was certainly no disgrace to go down to the high flying Mariners by 1 goal even if they were at home. Strange that fixture is always a poor one for them but conversely this is nearly always a good one. Being essentially poor travellers they will come to Newastle with the knowledge that this is a good matchup for them and they certainly have the Personel to do enough damage if they can find their best form. The likes of Ifill, Huysegems and Jeremy Brockie up front spell danger to a Newcastle squad that could be complacent. Always solid at the back with Ben Sigmund & Andrew Durante calling the shots it will be up to the midfield to ensure enough supply to their potent attack if they hope to come away with the spoils in this one. That could be a problem as they do seem a bit light on in regard to experience and quality though Louis Fenton did impress early on this season.
Tip;
Though Newcastle have a poor record against Wellington overall they couldn't have met them at a better time this season. They are ticking along nicely and there is a concern that fatigue might set in from some of the Nzers who played in China during the week. Heskey is a key figure for them now and they are a far better side all round this season compared to the last couple. Hard to believe they won't nake the finals this season and they are normally a very strong unit at home and they should just about get away with this one.
Bet Advice;
Once again a dilemma with Wellington being massively underrated in the market and home team. Newcastle absolutely no value at all. Bet Wellington at value odds and hope they hit their straps, and for Newcastle to have an off day. The Newcastle defence has been porous so if Phoenix can hold firm, you never know what might happen.
Draw $3.75
Sydney FC $4.75
History;
23 Matches- Brisbane 9 wins, Sydney 6 wins with 8 draws.
This is an outstanding fixture for Brisbane Roar who have beaten the Sydneysiders 6 times in succession at this venue and have won 7 of the last 10 clashes home and away.
Squad Changes;
Besart Berisha returns for the home team whilst Sydney also have the promising youngster Joel Chianese available for selection. Mitch Malia is rested for Sydney and Terry Antonis is unavailable due to Young Socceroos commitments.
Form;
Both teams are really struggling atm with Brisbane having lost 3 on the trot and Sydney suffering 2 morale sapping defeats in their past 2 matches, conceding 10 goals in the process.
Preview;
This is really a must win for Brisbane who need to reignite their season after completely losing their way in recent weeks. Everything looked rosy after round 2, business as usual it seemed after an impressive 5-0 demolition of Melbourne Victory in Round 2. That was a bit of a grudge match for the Roar who may have raised their level a couple of notches in the presence of former coach Ange Postecoglou, who had a slightly acrimonious departure at the end of last season.
This could well be a grudge match too with Besart Berisha (the Albanian Beast!) set to lock horns once again with Pascal Bosschaart of Sydney FC who only returned from injury last week. Who could forget the last clash between these 2 sides and the melee that erupted after the miraculous and dramatic come from behind late win in January.
Whether that gives Brisbane a psyhological edge in this one is debatable. It may be just as likely to spur Sydney on and this matchup does give on the feel of a local Derby, where neither side is likely to give an inch.
This is a better offensive Sydney unit this time around with Del Pierro and the slick Panamanian striker Yairo Yau almost certain to cause problems for them defensively. Joel Chianese didn't play in that last encounter and neither did the likes of Ali Abaas, Paul Reid or even goalkeeper Ivan Nicevski.
The problem for Sydney lies in defence and it was pretty much their Achilles heel all last season too. On the bright side for them Brisbane have only scored once in their past 3 matches so they have little to fear coming into this clash. They are a team in a bit of turmoil though. No current coach after the shock departure of Ian Crook and they have been abysmal without Del Pierro on the pitch in their past 2 matches. He didn't play in the slaughter against Central Coast and all 3 goals were scored after he was replaced last week against Melbourne Victory. To get out of this one unscathed they will need their iconic player to see out nearly all of this one you'd suspect.
Brisbane must surely drop defender Matt Jurman for this one after his ordinary showing last week. He was found wanting in 3 of the goals scored against them and Brisbane need to be more resilient in this against a pretty potent Sydney attack that has scored 4 times in their past 2 matches.
Tip;
This looks like a good opportunity for Brisbane to get back on track providing their is no more complacency and they play to somewhere near their full potential. There is a danger that the desire is no longer there after back to back championship titles but they did receive a timely wake up call last week in Melbourne which should steel them for this one. Historically there is only one team who can win though it might pay to remember that Syney did have them on toast in this same fixture last season before that dramatic finale.
Bet advice;
History aside there is no way in the wide world that the disparity in odds between these 2 is justified. Brisbane haven't won in 3 and were soundly beaten last week whilst Sydney did have 3 points in the bag last week before surrendering late. $5 is available about them with some operators (Unitab prices shown) and is certainly more than sufficient value for an away team. The draw isn't enough value to take so Sydney to win at that price will have to do me.
Adelaide Utd $1.85
Draw $3.40
Melbourne Heart $4.10
History;
6 Matches- Adelaide 3 wins, Heart 1 win with 2 draws.
Adelaide have failed to beat Heart at home though in last 3 matches, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Squad Changes;
Sergio Van Dijk returns for Adelaide and Antony Golec returns from injury.
Form;
Adelaide sit as equal leader and have been very solid over the first 6 rounds losing only once. Of their last 3 matches they have won 2 and drew against Perth last week.
Melbourne Heart returned to form last week with a 4-1 surprise thumping of Brisbane Roar at home. That was only their 2nd win of the season and followed 3 consecutive losses.
Preview;
Adelaide have made a great start to the season off the back of a successful Asian Champions League campaign that began at the end of last season and ended at the start of this one. Ever since coach John "The Messiah" Kosmina returned to the fold last season Adelaide have been a far different proposition to the one that started that season as A-League favourites, and failed to flatter. They now have self belief and a system that fits their current squad. Dario Vidosic is a far more influential player this year to last and being fully fit is probably the reason why. The Argentinian Jeronimo up front has been a revelation, and the squad now has considerable depth particularly in attacking sense with the likes of Van Dijk, Djite and Iain Ramsay being interchanged as the coach sees fit. The defence has stability and there is always the chance that captain and goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic will pull off a miracle save or two if required.
I wouldn't say the team is in sparkling form at the moment off a slightly fortunate win against Brisbane (when they did park the Bus!) and a less than convincing draw against Perth last week. That game could have gone either way and once again Adelaide played an open enough game at Hindmarsh to reward the away team if they were good enough. As it turned out Perth weren't quite.
Melbourne Heart should take a lot out of their win against the current champions last week and they do tend to be a confidence team. It was a very significant win because it was their first win in a long time without their mercurial captain Fred who continues his horror run with injury.
They may well have found the solution in Richard Garcia. The former Hull and Socerroos midfielder had an absolute blinder last week in an attacking sense and looks a perfect foil for the more defensive minded Matt Thompson (though he can be effective in attack too). Import Josip Tadic up front was very influential last week and on may well be the signing of the season. It is doubtful there is a forward in this League that has a better touch or quicker brain on what we saw last week. And he can score at will and give quality service to fellow attackers. Great to see David Williams come off the bench last week and finish his goal with some aplomb. Perhaps he too is about to realise his early potential.
Clint Bolton is ever reliable in goal, and great on crosses, and with 2 exciting fullbacks in Aziz Behich (returning from Socceroos duty) & Michael Marrone they are always a threat to opposing defences. As a whole the team can run a bit hot and cold and the self belief is questionable at times, but they often do often relish the underdog tag which exists here. They have already claimed the big scalps of Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar in their 2 wins this season.
Tip;
Because Adelaide just might have played themselves a bit out of form last week (and possibly against Brisbane in an attacking sense) and Heart doing quite the opposite last week I can smell a bit of an upset is on the cards here. The likes of Garcia and Tadic were so impressive last week that it is hard not to see them carrying that form into this game. Adelaide are certainly beatable at home at the best of times so the Melbourne side need not die wondering here. They need to match what Adelaide throw at them or better still go on the offensive. If they do that I feel they can come away with the spoils but if they sit back and try to absorb too much pressure they might come unstuck.
Bet advice;
Once again their is a disproportionate look to the market here with Adelaide massive favourites to win because they are at home. The odds represent no value for a home team whilst the $4.00+ odds about the away team is very generous especially given the fact that they are coming off an impressive win last week and do have a good record here in recent times. I'm very happy to invest on Heart at that price.
Melbourne Victory $2.60
Draw $3.35
Central Coast Mariners $2.55
History;
21 matches- Victory 9 wins, Central Coast 7 wins with 5 draws. Niether of these teams have an outstanding record at home against each other with Victory 4/10 & Central Coast 4/11 which is quite a bit less than the norm.
Squad changes;
Matthew Foschini, Theo Markelis, Isaka Cernak & Jimmy Jeggo are all available for Melbourne Victory selection.
Adriano Pellegrino, Oliver Bozanic,. Brad McDonald Mitchell Duke & Adam Kwasnik return to the fold for Central Coast whilst Troy Hearfield misses out.
Preview;
Both sides come into this match in great form with Victory buoyed by an unexpected late win against Sydney last week which came off the back of a good home win against poor Melbourne travellers Wellington Phoenix. Under Ange Postecoglous' tutelage they are now starting to find some form and rhythm, and with that surely comes a large dose of self belief. They were probably a bit flattered last week with Sydney completely collapsing in the last 20 minutes of the match to succumb late but nevertheless it is always a filip for any team to win as they did. This is the acid test for them so far this season against an in form Central Coast team who put 7 past the same Sydney opppositon (with Del Pierro) the prior week, and then crossed the Tasman to once again put Wellington to the sword at their otherwise fortress like Westpac stadium. They are certainly the form side of the moment and come into this one with an overall +7 goal difference compared to the -4 of Victory.
The home side do grow a leg in front of an always abundant home crowd so this is no easy task for the Gosford side and they haven't won here since November 2009.
Victory have been potent in attack all season with Thompson & Rojas carving out chances at will in most games. Marcos Flores & Gui Finkler are starting to find some touch in midfield and I really can't find enough superlatives to describe the work of Adama Traore at left back. He has been sensational all season and was just immense last week against Sydney. He has one hell of an engine and his overlapping runs down the left wing in attack are going to wear a lot of teams down this season. He just keeps coming similar to Aziz Behich of Melbourne Heart but he is a slightly more robust unit.
Central Coast still don't really have a truly reconised Central Striker but Daniel Macbreen is doing an amazing job at present and the midfield trio of Hutchinson, McGlinchey & Rogic are servicing him well ably supported by their 2 overlapping fullbacks Josh Rose and Pedg Bojic. They are a team in the true sense of the word and very well drilled by coach Graham Arnold. Victory don't have the same cohesion and team spirit as their opposition and will need all the individual flair and guile of Flores, Finkler & Torres to get them over the line here.
Tip;
I'm finding it really hard to come to a conclusion on just who will win this game. It really could go either way with history no real help and the current form of both is hard to fault. I'm going for a draw and it should be an entertaining one.
Bet Advice;
If you must then take comfort in the fact that Melbourne Victory are statistically good value for a home team. The price for a draw and away win here don't cut the mustard so the home team it is!.
Newcastle Jets $1.82
Draw $3.40
Wellington Phoenix $4.25
History;
16 Matches- Newcastle 4 wins, Wellington 11 wins with only 1 draw. Last result this fixture 0-1.
Wellington have won 4 of the last 5 matches between the 2 teams though 4 of them have been in NZ.
Overall this fixture 3 wins a piece. Draws are indeed a rarity between these two.
Squad Changes;
Bernardo Robeira, Sam Galloway & Marco Jesic are available for Newcastle selection but Jacob Pepper & Taylor Regan are unavailable due to suspension.
Wellington Phoenix have Roicardo Clarke available for this one with no omissions but have several players returning from national duty for New Zealand after a midweek match in China.
Preview;
Newcastle come into this game flying high, 3rd on the table with 2 wins from their last 3 matches. They are equal top scorers in the League but have conceded quite a few more than the 2 teams above them (10 compared to 4). Emile Heskey has been sensational thus far netting 5 goals with fellow Striker Ryan Griffiths alo thriving without the burden of having to shoulder the load up front. Craig Goodwin has been exceptional at left back since signing from Melbourne Heart and James Virgili has been a revelation wide on the right. With experienced campaigners Jobe Wheelhouse and Ruben Zadkovich shoring up the midfield the attacking trio are getting well and truly enough service to be effective at present.
Wellington in contrast come to this fixture in lamentable form losing 3 on the trot though it was certainly no disgrace to go down to the high flying Mariners by 1 goal even if they were at home. Strange that fixture is always a poor one for them but conversely this is nearly always a good one. Being essentially poor travellers they will come to Newastle with the knowledge that this is a good matchup for them and they certainly have the Personel to do enough damage if they can find their best form. The likes of Ifill, Huysegems and Jeremy Brockie up front spell danger to a Newcastle squad that could be complacent. Always solid at the back with Ben Sigmund & Andrew Durante calling the shots it will be up to the midfield to ensure enough supply to their potent attack if they hope to come away with the spoils in this one. That could be a problem as they do seem a bit light on in regard to experience and quality though Louis Fenton did impress early on this season.
Tip;
Though Newcastle have a poor record against Wellington overall they couldn't have met them at a better time this season. They are ticking along nicely and there is a concern that fatigue might set in from some of the Nzers who played in China during the week. Heskey is a key figure for them now and they are a far better side all round this season compared to the last couple. Hard to believe they won't nake the finals this season and they are normally a very strong unit at home and they should just about get away with this one.
Bet Advice;
Once again a dilemma with Wellington being massively underrated in the market and home team. Newcastle absolutely no value at all. Bet Wellington at value odds and hope they hit their straps, and for Newcastle to have an off day. The Newcastle defence has been porous so if Phoenix can hold firm, you never know what might happen.
Friday, November 9, 2012
A-League Round 6 2012
Melbourne Heart $3.30
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar $2.10
This is quite a tough game to predict with both teams travelling poorly and missing a key player each. Heart still without Fred and Brisbane having to do without their prolific scorer Besart Berisha.
I can't remember Heart winning a game with Fred the past season and a bit so their chances look a bit forlorn in turning things around tonight against quality opposition.
Historically Brisbane have the better of things with 3 wins from 5 but there has been very little between these 2 teams the past 4 times they have met (1 drawn and only a goal separating in other 3) since the inaugaral clash where Brisbane comfortably won 4-0. Even during Brisbanes' championship dominance the past 2 years they have failed to establish any real superiority over their Melbourne rivals.
Interesting to see how Brisbane cope without Berisha because there is no logical replacement and this is a team that has failed to score in it's past 2 matches.
System Bet- Brisbane are way too short for an away side to contemplate an investment. Melbourne Heart certainly are backable and better odds can be attained if you shop around (up to $3.75). So 'Systematically' they are very good value for a home side.
The problem is I just can't see them winning against quality opposition (who can dominate possession) without their best player yet again.
Tip- Either a Brisbane win but most likely a goaless or low scoring DRAW for mine.
Western Sydney Wanderers $2.60
Draw $3.15
Newcastle Jets $2.60
Another difficult game to assess as will any game involving West Sydney in it's debut season. So should we have been so surprised when the defeated the current champions 2 weeks ago at the ridiculous odds of $11? Only Adelaide have conceded as few goals as them so far this season so the foundations for the club are being built well ahead of schedule. Scroing has been their problem but the past fortnight has been much better and they have been richly rewarded with 2 wins.
Conversely Newcastle have had no trouble scoring thus far netting 9 times which is the 2nd best record in the competition at present. But they have leaked 9 at the other end so they do have defensive frailties that can be exposed.
So given that factor if Western Sydney hold tight in defence once again they could just about get away with this one.
System Bet- The home odds available are well and truly adequate to invest in WSW.
and Newcastle are poor value for an away team.
Tip- A narrow win for WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS but no result would totally surprise in this one.
Sydney FC $2.25
Draw $3.30
Melbourne Victory $3.00
Again there is very little difference in the market between these 2 teams. They call this matchup 'The Big Blue' due to the intense rivalry between the 2 Southern States and the corresponding colour of the Jerseys of course.
Being a local Derby it is not surprising that these 2 teams often cancel each other out. In 24 A-League meetings over the years they have managed to draw 11 times (48%) with Sydney only beating their arch rivals 3 times at home, compared to Victorys' 5.
Del Pierro comes back into the Sydney side and they need all the help they can get after last weeks inglorious effort where they conceded 7. Perhaps a defensive change to0 with Bosschaert possibly making a return from injury. He didn't help them much last year though in stemming the flow of goals so Victory can approach this game with some confidence knowing their 2 quick strikers hit form last week in the 3-2 win against Wellington.
Melbourne too have their defensive problems and in fact both these sides quite easily sit afoot the table in the goals against tally. Sydney have conceded 1 more and both teams have scored 7.
System Bet- there is very little value available although Sydney are just backable for a home team at the Unitab price shown. Melbourne should be left alone at that price.
Tip- I'm going with that amazing historical DRAW stat which is twice as high as what is generally the norm. Victory have been poor away from home for some time but carry some scoring confidence into this one, and Sydney will be determined to erase the memory of last week and are likely to have concentrated heavily on their defence all week at training.
Wellington Phoenix $2.45
Draw $3.25
Central Coast Mariners $2.70
Wellington will be happy to come home after a fairly typical 2 game showing on the road with no points in the bag. They have Ben Sigmund returning from a controversial one week suspension and on the evidence of last week against Melbourne Victory he will be welcomed with open arms.
Historically though this is becoming a nightmare match up for them. So normally strong at home they have oddly succumbed to 3 defeats in a row against this opposition and what a time to have to play them!
Central Coast were irrepressible last week in what was probably their best and certainly most prolific peformance in the A-League win last week against Sydney FC. Whilst they were a little poor defensively early in that match they more than made up for it in an attacking sense for just about the entire match. They have the best goal difference in the League and their confidence will be sky high crossing the Tasman to a happy hunting ground.
System Bet- Wellington are the value for a home team , whilst Central Coast should be left alone.
Tip- I am very confident CENTRAL COAST MARINERS can take the 3 points here on current form and their historical prominence in NZ. Despite $2.70 not being good value for an away team I think we have to make an exception here given the circumstances. In fact I think it is outstanding value considering Brisbane are much less than that against Melbourne Heart???
Adelaide United $2.20
Draw $3.25
Perth Glory $3.10
This game could go either way and once again the odds and history tend to indicate that.
85% of matches between these 2 have ended in a result either way, with draw a bit of a rarity.
Both teams come off a win last time and should be just about at full strength.
Curiously Perth have won the last 4 clashes between these two and have won the past 2 in Adelaide 3-0 & 2-0.
That could be misleading though as Adelaide are the current front runners in the competition and are a far more formidable oufit this season to last after a meritorious Asian Champions League run and coach Kosminas' ideolologies are well and truly cemented in their DNA now. As their performance showed last week they are a pretty resilient outfit to deal with even when they haven't got the ball.
Perth possibly welcome back goal scoring machine Shane Smeltz for the first time this season (I think) but are still without their captain Jacob Burns. His omission doesn't really hurt them in an attacking sense but probably means they will be more exposed in defence. That isn't such a bad thing though because Adelaide generally play an open expansive game at home and very often give their opposition chances at the other end. Perth would be well advised to be adventurous in this one as that could be their best chance of winning.
System Bet- Adelaide are just enough value to be backed as a home team here whilst Perth are well short of the required odds of an away team.
Tip- Really could go either way but a result is very likely historically so I'll go with the system value and ADELAIDE at home in an entertaining encounter.
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar $2.10
This is quite a tough game to predict with both teams travelling poorly and missing a key player each. Heart still without Fred and Brisbane having to do without their prolific scorer Besart Berisha.
I can't remember Heart winning a game with Fred the past season and a bit so their chances look a bit forlorn in turning things around tonight against quality opposition.
Historically Brisbane have the better of things with 3 wins from 5 but there has been very little between these 2 teams the past 4 times they have met (1 drawn and only a goal separating in other 3) since the inaugaral clash where Brisbane comfortably won 4-0. Even during Brisbanes' championship dominance the past 2 years they have failed to establish any real superiority over their Melbourne rivals.
Interesting to see how Brisbane cope without Berisha because there is no logical replacement and this is a team that has failed to score in it's past 2 matches.
System Bet- Brisbane are way too short for an away side to contemplate an investment. Melbourne Heart certainly are backable and better odds can be attained if you shop around (up to $3.75). So 'Systematically' they are very good value for a home side.
The problem is I just can't see them winning against quality opposition (who can dominate possession) without their best player yet again.
Tip- Either a Brisbane win but most likely a goaless or low scoring DRAW for mine.
Western Sydney Wanderers $2.60
Draw $3.15
Newcastle Jets $2.60
Another difficult game to assess as will any game involving West Sydney in it's debut season. So should we have been so surprised when the defeated the current champions 2 weeks ago at the ridiculous odds of $11? Only Adelaide have conceded as few goals as them so far this season so the foundations for the club are being built well ahead of schedule. Scroing has been their problem but the past fortnight has been much better and they have been richly rewarded with 2 wins.
Conversely Newcastle have had no trouble scoring thus far netting 9 times which is the 2nd best record in the competition at present. But they have leaked 9 at the other end so they do have defensive frailties that can be exposed.
So given that factor if Western Sydney hold tight in defence once again they could just about get away with this one.
System Bet- The home odds available are well and truly adequate to invest in WSW.
and Newcastle are poor value for an away team.
Tip- A narrow win for WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS but no result would totally surprise in this one.
Sydney FC $2.25
Draw $3.30
Melbourne Victory $3.00
Again there is very little difference in the market between these 2 teams. They call this matchup 'The Big Blue' due to the intense rivalry between the 2 Southern States and the corresponding colour of the Jerseys of course.
Being a local Derby it is not surprising that these 2 teams often cancel each other out. In 24 A-League meetings over the years they have managed to draw 11 times (48%) with Sydney only beating their arch rivals 3 times at home, compared to Victorys' 5.
Del Pierro comes back into the Sydney side and they need all the help they can get after last weeks inglorious effort where they conceded 7. Perhaps a defensive change to0 with Bosschaert possibly making a return from injury. He didn't help them much last year though in stemming the flow of goals so Victory can approach this game with some confidence knowing their 2 quick strikers hit form last week in the 3-2 win against Wellington.
Melbourne too have their defensive problems and in fact both these sides quite easily sit afoot the table in the goals against tally. Sydney have conceded 1 more and both teams have scored 7.
System Bet- there is very little value available although Sydney are just backable for a home team at the Unitab price shown. Melbourne should be left alone at that price.
Tip- I'm going with that amazing historical DRAW stat which is twice as high as what is generally the norm. Victory have been poor away from home for some time but carry some scoring confidence into this one, and Sydney will be determined to erase the memory of last week and are likely to have concentrated heavily on their defence all week at training.
Wellington Phoenix $2.45
Draw $3.25
Central Coast Mariners $2.70
Wellington will be happy to come home after a fairly typical 2 game showing on the road with no points in the bag. They have Ben Sigmund returning from a controversial one week suspension and on the evidence of last week against Melbourne Victory he will be welcomed with open arms.
Historically though this is becoming a nightmare match up for them. So normally strong at home they have oddly succumbed to 3 defeats in a row against this opposition and what a time to have to play them!
Central Coast were irrepressible last week in what was probably their best and certainly most prolific peformance in the A-League win last week against Sydney FC. Whilst they were a little poor defensively early in that match they more than made up for it in an attacking sense for just about the entire match. They have the best goal difference in the League and their confidence will be sky high crossing the Tasman to a happy hunting ground.
System Bet- Wellington are the value for a home team , whilst Central Coast should be left alone.
Tip- I am very confident CENTRAL COAST MARINERS can take the 3 points here on current form and their historical prominence in NZ. Despite $2.70 not being good value for an away team I think we have to make an exception here given the circumstances. In fact I think it is outstanding value considering Brisbane are much less than that against Melbourne Heart???
Adelaide United $2.20
Draw $3.25
Perth Glory $3.10
This game could go either way and once again the odds and history tend to indicate that.
85% of matches between these 2 have ended in a result either way, with draw a bit of a rarity.
Both teams come off a win last time and should be just about at full strength.
Curiously Perth have won the last 4 clashes between these two and have won the past 2 in Adelaide 3-0 & 2-0.
That could be misleading though as Adelaide are the current front runners in the competition and are a far more formidable oufit this season to last after a meritorious Asian Champions League run and coach Kosminas' ideolologies are well and truly cemented in their DNA now. As their performance showed last week they are a pretty resilient outfit to deal with even when they haven't got the ball.
Perth possibly welcome back goal scoring machine Shane Smeltz for the first time this season (I think) but are still without their captain Jacob Burns. His omission doesn't really hurt them in an attacking sense but probably means they will be more exposed in defence. That isn't such a bad thing though because Adelaide generally play an open expansive game at home and very often give their opposition chances at the other end. Perth would be well advised to be adventurous in this one as that could be their best chance of winning.
System Bet- Adelaide are just enough value to be backed as a home team here whilst Perth are well short of the required odds of an away team.
Tip- Really could go either way but a result is very likely historically so I'll go with the system value and ADELAIDE at home in an entertaining encounter.
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