Tuesday, January 31, 2012

A-League Round 19

Unitab prices are quoted as at 7.00pm Tuesday 31/01/12

Melbourne Victory v Gold Coast UnitedAurora Stadium (Launceston,Tasmania) 6:00 PM, Wed 01 Feb 2012

Melbourne Victory 1.95
Draw 3.40
Gold Coast United 3.65



History and Stats;

8 Matches between the 2 since the inception of the A-League and Melbourne Victory have had the better of it winning 5 to Gold Coasts' 3. Interesting that so far there hasn't been a draw.

Victory has won 3 out of it's 4 home matches against this rival and won 2 of  4 played up in Qld.
This game is to take place in Tasmania so the statistics are a little irrelevant perhaps.

Interesting that in the 5 A-League  matches thus far played at neutral venues this season no more than 2 goals have been scored in the match.

Melbourne Victory sit 6 points ahead of Gold Coast on the A-League table but have played 1 more match. Both have the same goal difference (-6) with Victory having scored 4 more than Gold Coast but the latter has conceded 4 goals less. That adequately sums up the plight of both teams at present-
Gold Coast aren't scoring enough goals and Melbourne Victory are conceding too many.

Form Guide;

Melbourne Victory would surely prefer this game to be played in Melbourne where they haven't lost all season, whereas away from home they have lost their last 4 matches and conceded 12 goals in the process. That borders on pathetic! Not sure how they will fare in this one- Is it neither a Home game or an Away game for them as it being played in Launceston (Tasmania).
At the moment they exhibit a total inability to defend a lead, whether it be by 1 or 2 goals and when they concede a goal or goals in the first half they invariably lose.
New coach Magilton has had an inglorious initiation thus far with his team throwing away 2 half time leads which eventuated in draws and copping an absolute shallacking in the last Away clash in Perth.
His presence hasn't had the intended 'honeymoon' affect, and this game almost looks pivotal to his future at the club. After all it is against the cellar dwellars.

Gold Coast have lost their way of late after looking like they could mount some sort of a challenge for the Top 6. They have created a plethora of chances in their last 3 games but have only managed to score 3 times, only enough to obtain 1 point from a possible 9.
They have some very good young players who are extremely dangerous on the counter attack but influential midfielder Paul Beekmans won't play again this season and not sure whether experienced Dutch striker Maceo Rigters is back from injury for this one.
They have had 10 days to iron out their scoring woes and rest the legs a little so it will be interesting to see if Coach Miron Bleiberg has waved a magic wand for them.

Bet advice;

Don't bet odds on about Melbourne Victory winning this. It isn't a true home game, and you are likely to suffer something akin to a heart attack in the 2nd half particularly if they take anything less than a 3-0 lead into the break.
If odds on prevails they are worth laying, if you are that way inclined!

Consider betting Gold Coast if they drift from the $3.65 price quoted above. $3.75+ is worth an investment.

I'd really love to suggest taking under 2.5 goals to be scored in this match but only $1.75 is being offered up about that at present.

Although a draw is yet to eventuate between these 2 the fact that this is being played at a neutral venue just might prove the catalyst? I'd want $4 to create even minor interest in that investment though and that is a pipe dream at present.






Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
HindmarshStadium 7:00 PM, Fri 03 Feb 2012

Adelaide United 2.35
Draw 3.30
Wellington Phoenix 2.85


History and Stats;

Aelaide Utd have a very good record in this fixture only once beaten by Wellington at Hindmarsh in 8 matches. Head to Head Adelaide also have the edge 7 wins to 3, with a further 5 draws between the 2 teams.

These 2 have met twice this season. The last was at Hindmarsh just over a month ago when Adelaide triumphed quite comfortably by a 2-0 scoreline. Prior to that both teams had played a 1-1 draw 'over the ditch' in Wellington on November 19. Interestingly Adelaide presented Wellington with an own goal in that match so in effect Wellington are yet to have one of their players score against Adelaide this season.

On the negative side though Adelaide have a poor goal scoring record at home this season with only 8 goals in 10 matches at Hindmarsh. Even worse they have conceded 15 to their opponents in that same time span.

That can be tempered a little when you look at Wellingtons' away form. Only 5 goals in 8 matches albeit a respectable 9 goals conceded. Quite pertinent also that they have managed to win their last 2 away matches 1-0 and got a massive 'monkey off their backs' in the process. Both those goals have been in the 2nd half though and they have only scored 2 away goals in the first half this season.

Similarly Adelaide have struggled to score goals in the first half at Hindmarsh this season. Only 2 from 11 games but at least one of them was against Wellington in that last meeting (Bruce Djite).

Wellington are 10 points ahead of Adelaide on the table and have a +6 goal difference. Adelaide are the worst defensive team in the competition and have a -13 goal difference.

Form Guide

Statistics tell one thing and current form quite another.

Wellington have won 4 of their last 5 matches with the only loss at home in atrocious conditions to a very late goal. And as mentioned they have won their last 2 away from home.

Conversely Adelaide are struggling, not having won in 5 matches, losing 2 of them.

Wellington come into this clash in a buoyant mood whereas Adelaide have their 3rd game in 9 days and come off a morale sapping 3-0 defeat to Perth at home, after some unbelievable profligacy in front of goal early on.
In fact it is now over 2 hours since Adelaide last scored in the match against Newcaslte where they also should have done a lot better. Add to that the 3-2 capitulation to the Mariners (after having the game almost in the bag at half time) 3 games ago  snd you get the feeling that they just might be dangling off the end of a bungy rope with no assistance in sight!

Bet advice;


Difficult to know what to recommend in regards to picking the winner here. History tells you one thing but form suggests the opposite.

I really do like the chances of a low scoring encounter though looking at the home and away stats of both sides. Less than 2.5 goals in this game looks a really nice play- Adelaide are averaging less than 1 goal a game at home and Wellington less than 1 goal away from home. Odds aren't great about that yet but if $1.90 can be obtained it could be worth an investment.
And considering both teams struggle to score in the first half given these circumstances a 0-0 scoreline at halftime looks pretty realistic too.

I could get '' blown out of the water very early on here' with this kind of prediction but both options look a lot more appealing than merely trying to pick a winner at shortish prices.

Having said that statistics tell you that $2.35 odds (might actually drift) about a home team winning is generous enough to take. Personally I just don't want to, on a team that is down on form, below par at home this season, and up against currently the 2nd best team in the league.






Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar
Bluetongue Stadium 4:30 PM, Sat 04 Feb 2012

Central Coast Mariners 2.15
Draw 3.25
Brisbane Roar 3.20


History and Stats;

In the last 11 games between the 2 Brisbane have dominated with 6 wins to CC's 2, and 3 draws.
Central Coast recorded their first victory over Brisbane in 9 games up at Suncorp stadium in mid December winning 2-1.
The 2 also met at Suncorp in Round 1 of this season with Brisbane coming up trumps 1-0.
Last season they had 6 clashes in total with Brisbane unbeaten and winning 4 of them. 3 times they came from behind to win though and incredibly from 2 goals down on two of those occasions.

Despite the overall disparity in results these 2 always have tight and very entertaining tussles as was the case in last years final series (Brisbane came from 2-0 down on two occasions) which shall never be forgotten by anybody that was lucky enough to witness it.

In those past 11 matches Central Coast  have only played Brisbane at home 4 times and it is 5 games since they have taken on their arch enemy at home. Brisbane have won 3 and drawn 1 of those clashes.

This  year Central Coast have lifted their game to a new level, sitting 7 points aloft at the top of the table with a game in hand. And 11 points in front of Brisbane with a game in hand.
They are now 15 games unbeaten and won 12 of them. And in their last 2 matches they have looked in grave danger of defeat, but managed to deliver the knockout blow quite late in the 2nd stanza.

Brisbane have faltered badly after a great start. After winning 6 and drawing 2 of their first 8 games they have only managed to win 2 of their last 11 with 3 draws, a somewhat stunning capitulation!
They have conceded the first goal 13 times in 19 matches this season, and in 13 of their last 16.
They haven't managed to win in their last 6 matches but have been very good value in drawing their last 3 it has to be said.

Form Guide;

It is now 14 days since the Central Coast played a match and that is pretty much without precedent in this League. They have been 2nd best for long periods in their last 2 matches but have found the resolve to keep their unbeaten run intact, the sign of a championship winning team.

Today they are severely weakened by the loss of Goalkeeper Matt Ryan, and 2 influential midfielders in Mustafa Amini (scored against Brisbane in last clash) and Oliver Bozanic (scored twice against Brisbane in last years final series), who are all away on Olyroo duty. Add to that the fact that talismanic Striker Matt Simon also played in the last clash between these 2 (now in Korea) and you realise that this CC side bears scant resemblance to the one that finally 'Vanquished the Demons' in Round 11 this season. Matt Ryans' absence is potentially critical considering his stellar form this season, and recent heroics, which have all bar won Central Coast maximum points in their past 2 games.

Brisbane come into this game after a very disappointing loss at home against their bogey side Newcastle Jets. They missed their top goalscorer (and the A-Leagues') Besart Berisha that night, still pretty much dominated the entire match, but failed to penetrate a resilient Jets defence. The wet surface probably didn't help their cause on the night and their continual problem of conceding early, cost them dearly in the final analysis. 

Bet Advice;

In view of long term betting strategy Central Coast are value enough here for a Home team win.
Brisbane as the Away team are not.
Personally I'm throwing caution to the wind here though and am going to bet Brisbane to win, as they are at close to full strength, have played more recently, and have a very good record against the Central Coast at Bluetongue Stadium. This is a crucial game for them in the chase for top spot this year and they have to beat CC to have any hope of hauling them in. This is almost a Grand Final for them and they have so often come up trumps against the same opposition given a similar scenario. I'm tipping them to return to their very best here against a weakened opposition. The 'Draw No Bet' option looks particularly appealing at reasonable $2.30 odds. 
The chances of them having to come from behind are very high though so Central Coast to score first could be a good play, as is the "Come from behind to win"  scenario for Brisbane.

Whatever happens this is almost certainly going to be another Blockbuster of a clash between these 2 sides. May the best team win!  





Melbourne Heart v Melbourne Victory
AAMI Park 6:45 PM, Sat 04 Feb 2012


Melbourne Heart 2.40
Draw 3.30
Melbourne Victory 2.75



History and Stats;

5 matches between these 2 and Melbourne Heart lead the Head to Head winning 2 to Victorys' 1 with 2 draws. The last match between them back in December saw Heart as convincing winners with the 3-2 scoreline very flattering to the Victory who claimed a late consolation goal and scored early on in the match.

15 goals have been scored in this fixture between the 2 which averages at 3 goals per game, perhaps an important stat to remember.

Form Guide;

Both teams come into this clash with very questionable form. Heart haven't won in 6 games now after looking like Championship contenders before that. Victory lurch from one disaster to another with only 1 win from 8 and a total inability to hold a winning lead in the latter stages of their matches.

Victory will be absolutely desperate for the points here being 5 points behind their arch rival and in grave danger of slipping out of finals contention. They face a depleted Heart side who now suffer the loss of their influental vice captain Matt Thompson on top of 3 of their regular youngsters who are away on Olyroo duty. Captain Fred is of course on the long term injury list and he was probably man of the match the last time these 2 met. The only real influential Heart players left from that impressive performance against Victory earlier in the season are Eli Babalj & Micheal Marrone so there are no excuses for Victory if they don't come away with all 3 points today.
Lucky for Victory this doesn't apply as an away game (being a local Derby and they do play here also) as there recent form in that regard is deplorable. A win here can all but erase the pain of Thursdays' embarrassing last minute capitulation and definitely kick start a finals push.

Having said that there seems to be little structure to the way Victory play and even less so since Jim Magilton became manager. Self  belief hasn't  improved and you can't keep blaming defeat on a lack of confidence as Magilton keeps espousing. They have many experienced players who have played at this level or better and one of them Harry Kewell is the only one really making an impression at the moment. The management is overly tense (not just Magilton) and that seems to be reflected on the field of play. And this being a Derby is unlikely to alleviate that tension.

Heart manager John Van't Schip however is a complete contrast. He is cool in a crisis, thoughtful and far more technical in his outlook. At times this season his team have looked without peer in regard to confidence and the ability to penetrate opposition defences. Whilst they are missing several key players today the ones he has left are more than capable of filling the gaps as Jonaton Germano and Alex Terra proved recently against Central Coast. And young Babalj up front tore Victory apart  in that last game and is overdue for a big performance. I'd expect experienced campaigners Paul Reid and Simon Colossimo to get some major game time here, so it could be argued that the team they have out on the park will have more of that than recent squads.
Aziz Behich is a major loss at Left back though and probably irreplaceable in an attacking sense. That will cause a reshuffle and perhaps illicit a more cautious approach from Van't Schip.


Bet Advice;

Heart come into this match as Favourites but I'm damn sure they don't see it that way, and realistically recent form and player inability suggests that perhaps the odds should be in Victorys' favour.

But Heart seem capable of lifting massively when they play their arch rival and I wouldn't expect any deviation today.

A lot might depend on whether Carlos Hernandez gets some game time for Victory. He was superb in a losing side the last time these 2 met but has fallen out of favour with the new regime, probably due to a perceived lack of work effort. He is needed today though to match the adventurous nature of the opposition.

If Hernandez  plays I'm tipping a draw, otherwise I'm inlcined to stick with the Heart.
The price about a Home team winning (even though it's a Derby) is more than acceptable.

3 goals or more in the match looks a decent play and perhaps Victory to score first also.


Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets Sydney Football Stadium 4:00 PM, Sun 05 Feb 2012

Sydney FC 1.95
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 3.60



History and Stats;

Newcastle have an absolutely deplorable head to head record against Sydney winning only 3 and drawing 6 of their 21 encounters. And at this venue they have only managed to win once from 9 starts, though at least the win did occur in their 2nd last encounter.

Sydney though have some very average form at home this season only winning 2 out of 7 at the SFS, and both have been against the current Cellar Dwellars, Gold Coast Utd.
They have a nasty habit of conceding first in games this season (11 times) and the 10 day break leading into this game might not help in that regard.
Of their 6 winning effort this year only 1 has been by more than 1 goal. That was the massive upset against Brisbane where the wind was almost wholely responsible for goal No.2 and they failed to add to their lead in the remaining 70 minutes.

Newcastle finally broke their dreadful Away 'duck' this season against Brisbane, once again proving they are the nemesis for that team at their home base. That followed a come behind draw on the road against Adelaide at Bathurst and a respectable 2-1 loss to Melbourne Victory at Etihad where they probably finished off the stronger of the 2 teams. So in reality there has been improvement in their away form of late.

Form Guide;

As mentioned Sydney come into this game off a 10 day break, slightly longer an absence than desired perhaps and something that proved fatal for the league leaders yesterday (albeit that was 14 days).
They should be reasonably confident though given a get out of jail performance against Melbourne Victory from 2-0 down and a come from behind win against Gold Coast in their prior match at this venue.
They have 2 youngsters away on Olyroo duty though and there is some doubt about their marquee signing Brett Emerton making the starting eleven; if at all with a troublesome hamstring injury.

Newcastle come into this with probably their most positive mind set all season after that morale boosting win against the defending League champions. Unlike their opponents they are pretty much at full strength despite the loss of Kanterovski to the Olyroos. They have capable players to fill his spot though and it shouldn't upset their rhythm too much. They started well up at Suncorp scoring first and may well do so here against an opponent who could be a bit 'rusty' early on. They showed in the last match that they can hold a lead and Sydney don't have quite the same potency in attack as Brisbane do.
That said Sydney do have great reslilience if required as shown in their past 2 outings.

Bet Advice;

Don't come into Sydney FC at the odds on quote they are here. Rarely is that short a price any value whatsoever in this league and the disparity in odds between these 2 is way too wide. If you had to back Sydney perhaps you'd do it in 'come from behind' context here, where the odds are likely to be far more generous.

Newcastle on the other hand offer decent value for an away team with them likely to drift from that opening $3.60 price. They have an opportunity here, and the motivation to break into the Top 6 and do meet a Sydney team that is slighly vulnerable. There is mention of wet condiitons underfoot that should suit them (as it did up in Brisbane).

Given their hoodoo against Sydney though and the current resilience that side has on display this is more likely to be a very tight tussle that ends in a draw.

So it's either a deadlock or a Newcastle win at value for me.

Not expecting an open game but hopefully it is close and has it's fair share of drama.



Perth Glory v Gold Coast United 9:05 PM, Mon 06 Feb 2012

Perth Glory 1.73
Draw 3.50
Gold Coast United 4.60


History and Stats;


7 Matches between these 2 with Gold Coast clearly on top 4 wins to Perths' 1 with 1 draw. Perhaps significantly though the Perth 2-0 win was attained the last time these 2 met and it was at this Stadium, albeit on the back of 2 gift wrapped penalties.Overall in this fixture Gold Coast still have the better of it, winning 2, losing 1 and drawing 1.

Perth are now unbeaten in 7 matches, winning 4 of them.They have scored 6 goals in their last 2 home matches.
In contrast Gold Coast have only won 1 of their last 7, lost 3 (all by 1 goal) and drawn 3.
Perth sit 13 points clear of Gold Coast on the points table and have a +1 goal difference as opposed to -6 in the case of the Queenslanders.


Form Guide;

Perth are currently the form team of the competition. 2 months ago they were in a state of utter turmoil with owner Tony Sage threatening to leave the club and coach Ian Ferguson staring almost certain eviction in the face.
Since then the turnaround has been nothing short of amazing with the goals flowing, (a total of 15 in 7 matches) a new found resolve, and confidence soaring as a result. They have scored 3 or more goals 3 times in that 7 game span. Shane Smeltz has returned to something like his best and is currently the Leagues 2nd top scorer with 9 goals. But importantly the goals have been coming from several different sources.

Gold Coast surely come to Perth with a better mindset than when they last visited in early December last  year. On that occasion they came with a depleted side and off the back of a frustrating loss to the same team (Melbourne Victory they met last week. But this time they got something out of the game, Michael Thwaite scoring very late in Franz Beckenbauer style to earn his side an arguably deserved draw. In the prior 2 matches they had struggled to make an impression late on in both games so the importance of the Thwaite goal against Melbourne could be significant in regards to morale for todays' match and in self belief for the rest of the season. A loss in that game would probably have meant 'curtains' for them this season.
They are likely to concede a lot of possession in this match but that might just suit them. Their defence is capable of soaking up pressure (as it did in their last win against Brisbane), isn't anywhere near as fragile as some others in the League, and they certainly have capable players on the counter attack. Rarely have they been beaten by more than 1 goal this season.

Bet Advice;

Perth are deserved favourites for this but at long odds on I can only reiterate that you not take it! Twice this round that assumption has proved correct. This competition has a salary cap and despite the disparity between these 2 on the League Table the reality is that there is little between any of the teams in this competition on a given day. Perth are perhaps due for a bit of a downer and Gold Coast at least come here off the back of morale boost.
Gold Coast have a good Head to Head record against this opponent and should be keen to put things right after a sloppy effort the last time they ventured west.
They are drifting in the betting market, and a draw is also appealing. Both those options are where the value lies and perhaps half staking them is the way to go.
Not a lot of confidence in the assessment as Perth are in such good form and generally reliable at home, but hopefully 'fortune favours the brave'.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

A-League Round 18

Adelaide Utd vs Newcastle Jets 25/01

History and Stats;

Note this game is being played at a neutral venue in Bathurst.

22 Matches between the 2 with Adelaide on top winning 9 compared to Newcastles' 6 with 7 draws.

Last time these two met was on 25/11/2011 in Adelaide where they played out a scoreless draw.

A 4 day turnaround here for Adelaide and the last time they attempted same beat Melbourne Heart 3-1 away from home only 4 games ago.
They lost their first game in 6 matches last Sunday against Central Coast and their first away game in 5. A bit unlucky to do so too.

Newcastle are yet to win away from home this season from 8 matches and 6 of them have been losses.
They aren't travelling interstate this time though and their last away match at Gosford against the competition leaders was an encouraging 1-1 draw. Their 2nd highest scorer Jeremy Brockie (6 goals) is yet to score away from home this season.

Both teams have a very similar overall goal difference with the same amount conceded but Newcastle have scored 1 more. Since John Kosmina took over Adleaide 6 matches ago they have  goal difference of +3. In that same period Newcastle has a goal difference of -4.

Current Form;

Adelaide are a much more consistent team than they were some 6 weeks ago. Whilst they have ridden their luck at times conversely they can consider themselves a little bit unfortunate not to have at least come away with a draw from Gosford on Sunday afternoon against the competition front runners.
This is their 3rd game away from home in succession but they are performing above expectations and their home form is certainly inferior overall. The fact that they aren't playing this at Hindmarsh probably serves as no real hindrance in light of their recnt good run.

Newcastle were very disappointing at home against Wellington in what looked to be a very winnable game on paper. Their reliance on youth whilst admirable really isn't helping them get the desired results at present and questions still remain as to whether Gary Van Egmont has the capability to succeed with his 'Grand Plan' for the future.  They have a small bonus here in regard to not having to travel interstate, and there is no advantage in that respect for their opposition.

Prediction;

I can't possibly tip Newcastle who let me down badly last week against Wellington. For mine they just don't have the squad or the coaching idelology to make the Finals this year and Adelaide are playing too consistently and have too many top grade players in form to tip against.

Quite possibly a draw could ensue if Newcastle lift their game but I'm tipping Adelaide here to win by at least a goal.
Doubtful there is any value at all in this game though looking at Betting Markets.


Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC  26/01

History and Statistics;

22 matches have been played between the 2 with Melbourne Victory having slightly the better of it overall with 7 wins compared to 5. Draws are the most comon result though and 10 have eventuated between the 2.

In 12 corresponding fixtures over the years Victory have won 5, lost 3 and Drawn 4.

The last meeting between the 2 in October this season produced a 0-0 draw at Etihad stadium in Melbourne.

Melbourne Victory are still unbeaten at home this season from 8 matches but have won only 3 of them.
It has been 11 matches since Victory kept a clean sheet and in that time 23 goals have been scored against them. That averages out at slightly more than 2 goals a game.
Notable that only 8 have come in their last 6 home games with the other 15 from 5 away games in that period.

Although they have lost their past 2 away games Sydney have been decent away from home this season and probably more realiable then they have been at their SFS home ground. They were unlucky not to come away with at least a draw up at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane against the Roar in their last away performance which  was a far better performance than Victory managed on New Years eve at the same ground.
Overall in 9 away matches this season Sydney have won 3, lost 3 and drawn 3. 12 points from a possible 27. But that is 1 point more than they have achieved at home (3 of those points achieved away from SFS) from the same amount of games.

Interesting that both teams have a very similar goal difference, both conceding 27 goals. Sydney have scored 1 more though and have won 2 more games, albeit losing 1 more than Melbourne.


Current Form;

Melbourne come into this off what can only be described as a season low. Conversely in can be argued that Sydney are off a season high after coming from behind to beat Gold Coast at the SFS last Sunday.
Whilst that was against the bottom side it was their first victory at the SFS for some time and it came off a short break, after a slightly disappointing draw against big improvers Perth Glory in very hot condititions at Campbelltown, which showed they have resilience, something sadly lacking in todays' opponents over the past 6 weeks or so.

Sydney have to overcome the loss of young playmaker Terry Antonis whilst Melbourne probably welcome back the influential Carlos Hernandez and have the probably addition of Mark Milligan to their defensive line up. That  should eventually prove to be a key signing. Victorys' big problem of late, and possibly all season has been the left and right fullback positions. That was very evident against Perth on Sunday where both were beaten all ends up and 3 goals ensued. Milligan is a very good Central Defender, maybe not so much a full back, and (wherever he does play), may initially have trouble adapting back to the speed of the A-League, as opposed to the slower pace he has probably been experiencing in Asia. He is a very good player though and has impressed several times at International level.

Sydney have a bad habit of conceding first whilst Victory have a tendency to leak goals in the 2nd half upon fatiguing. A short back up and having the trip over and back from the West, after playing in trying conditions over there isn't going to help Victory in that regard. Quite possibly they will start slowly here and that will assist Sydney. And the fact that Sydney finished the game off so well against Gold Coast should give them the confidence to gain the desired result in the second half.

Prediction;

Very hard for me to tip Melbourne Victory here off such a resounding loss. It isn't common for a team in this League to bounce back in their next match and win after an effort as poor as that. And it has to be remembered that their previous game at home against Adelaide was hardly a confidence booster either where they conceded dominance in the 2nd half.
More likely they could play well enough to draw and keep their home record intact.
I just fancy though that the tension will be palpable for them, and that combined with second half fatigue might prove their undoing against a side that come to Melbourne with confidence, off a performance that just could represent the turning point for them this season.
Sydney by 1 goal but this should be a close one.



Gold Coast United vs Central Coast Mariners 27/01

History and Stats;

9 games between these 2 with Central Coast having their noses in front winning 3 to Gold Coasts' 2 with 4 draws.

The last 2 meetings have produced 2 draws only 2 goals and notable they have both been at Gosford and Central Coast have been massive favourites both times. This is their 3rd meeting this season.

Central Coast have only been beaten twice this season and are currently on a 15 match unbeaten run punctuated by an incredible 7 away wins in a row.

Gold Coast on the other hand are struggling to gain maximum points, having not won in their last 4 matches. At home this season they have played 7, won 2, drawn 3 and lost 2. On the positive side they haven't lost at home by more than 1 goal and only once conceded more than 1 goal.

Table positions suggest a massive gulf between the 2 teams. 26 points in fact. Central Coast have a +17 goal difference and sit atop the table whilst Gold Coast are at -6 and languishing at the foot.

Current Form;

Central Coast come to the Glitter strip with an air of invincibility about them. They have been 2nd best for large portions of their past 2 matches, yet still managed to find a way to win, thanks largely to the heroic acts of their custodian Matt Ryan. If not for him they would probably have gained only 1 point from those last 2 games rather than 6.
It's probably a strange thing to say but they probably have to lift a little bit for this game if they want to take maximum points home yet again.

Gold Coast just can't take a trick at the moment. Defensively they have been decent but their finishing has been ordinary, and they haven't finished their games off too well in their past 2 outings.
Not sure whether Maceo Rigters returns for this one but it would certainly be a bonus if he did ,with their other senior Striker Dylan McCallister on the longer term injury list.

Prediction;

Impossible to tip against Central Coast who are riding high atm and are likely to up their performance level considering they haven't been at their best in their past 2 games.
Gold Coast are a bit of a bogey team for them though and will fancy their chances a bit. The surface is likely to be rain affected and the conditions humid so their young and quick Midfielders/Strikers could make a nuisance of themselves in a must win game for them.
Central Coast to win for mine but probably by 1 goal which is not supported by the disparity in odds.

I thought the draw option might offer some value but even that is being kept safe at present @ $3.50 or thereabouts.


Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets 28/01



History and Stats;

18 games between the 2 since the inception of the A-League and honors are all even with 6 wins a piece and 6 draws.

Surprisingly Brisbane Roar have a terrible record in this fixture at home with only 1 win from 9 matches and 6 losses in total. They have drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 3 encounters at home since Ange Postecoglou became coach in October 2009 though they did win their last clash at Newcastle in November last year which gave the said coach his first win over them.

Brisbane are unbeaten in 5 games now, winning 2 of them since that horror run where they lost 5 in a row.

Newcastle haven't won in 4 games, losing 2 of them. Only 3 goals in their past 4 games is a bit of a concern and their Away form this season is dysmal with no wins from 9, and only the 3 draws.
In the last 6 games though they have been pretty competitive, winning 1, drawing 3 and losing 2, but only by the 1 goal.

Current Form;

Newcastle are really struggling to make any impression in regard to making the Top 6 at seasons end.  They played well in patches against Adelaide in Bathurst and really should have won the game after they scored the equalising goal in the 73rd minute, such was their overall dominance from that point on. Once again though they just seemed to lack the killer punch which separates a final contender from an also ran. In general the goals have dried up and they really need to find some scoring form from here on in.

Brisbane seem to have nearly recaptured their best form. An incredible win against Sydney at home followed up by a high class draw away from home against the impressive Melbourne Heart. Broich and Henrique should have reclaimed  full fitness now and whilst both are perhaps a shade short of their best form ,their influence is likely to be greater in every game now till seasons end, barring injury of course.

Not 100% sure this game is going to go ahead and if it does the wet weather is going to make things a bit more difficult to play flowing Football, and that might bring the teams closer together than othrwise thought. Brisbane are without Berisha for the first time this season and that is a big loss, with no adequate replacement available. The talk is that Broich will slot right into his position but I doubt that (given his creative influence) and expect a slightly different tactical approach to the game even if it is only in regard to formation.

Prediction;

Brisbane are massive favourites to win this but the wet weather and loss of Berisha are certainly not ideal. Any complacency from them could also be fatal, though I have to say it is very hard to see Newcastle actually toppling them on current form, even though history suggests an upset is definitely a possibility.
Both teams like to play a similar style passing game and build from the back but Brisbane have evolved into that style of team whilst Newcastle are a work in progress on that front. If both employ those tactics tonight it will be an interesting sight on a wet Suncorp pitch! Newcastle just might be well advised to go Route 1 at times if they hope to bag all 3 points.

I'm tipping a draw though which is still 'going out on a limb' somewhat. It could be a frustrating night for a Brisbane team who would much prefer an ideal playing surface.







Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Heart 29/01

History and Stats;

Only the 4 games between the 2 with honours even with Heart winning 2 (at home) and Wellington 1 with the other game a 2-2 draw in NZ.

Current Form;

Wellington have won their last 2 games away from home, a rarity for them after suffering their first Home defeat all season to Perth in atrocious weather conditions 3 matches ago.

Melbourne Heart are unbeaten in their last 4 Away matches, winning 3 of them. They have only lost 2 Away games this season. On the negative side they have failed to win in their past 4 matches, albeit their last 2 performances against the top 2 teams in the League have been outstanding.

Both sides come in to this game with the same goal difference of -4 with Heart the more prolific side and Wellington the better defensive unit.


Prediction;

Looks like another tight game. Wellington will be missing right fullback Manny Muscat who has been pretty influential for them of late, particularly in an attacking context.
I'm tipping Heart to win this but only just. If they are at their best they are more than a match for any side in this competition and their last 2 matches have certainly proved that.
Wellington are worth their 3rd spot on the table though and are a very tight knit group of players who respond exceptionally well at home.

Both these teams should make the final 6 this year but for mine Heart have slightly more quality all over the park, play pretty well away from home, and might be more desperate for a win today considering they will be losing a few key players to the Olympic squad after this game.


Adelaide Utd vs Perth Glory 29/01

22 Matches between these 2 and very little has separated them overall with 10 wins to Adelaide and 9 to Perth with a paltry 3 draws.
The last 11 matches between them have yielded a result either way and significantly the favoured side  has saluted in 9 of the past 10. Adelaide are favourites today.

In this fixture at Home Adelaide have been very dominant. Out of 11 matches they have won 7, lost 3 and drawn 1.

Perth defeated Adelaide 1-0 at Home in the only clash this season between the two this season but that was way back in Round 1.

Current Form;

Adelaide have only lost once since John Kosmina took over as coach and that was a very meritorious 3-2 loss to league leaders Central Coast 2 games ago. They were slightly disappointing on Wednesday night at Bathurst where they looked the better side but eventually conceded their dominance of the match in the final 20 or so minutes, probably lucky not to lose it in that period.
At home this season they have been poor with 3 wins, 3 draws abd 3 losses from 9 games, though since Kossie was appointed they have a win and a draw against Brisbane Roar on their resume at Hindmarsh which indicates they are heading in the right direction.
They are scoring on a regular basis but still have the worst defensive record in the League.

Perth are probably the in form team of the competition right now unbeaten in their last 6 outings and winning 3 of them. Their last game against Melbourne Victory was definitely one of the best performances of this A-League season and the confidence levels will be sky high.
They are unbeaten in their last 4 Away matches winning 2 of them.

Prediction;

This game has draw written all over it but history suggests otherwise. I very much doubt that Perth have ever come to Adelaide in better form. That last win against Victory was just so impressive I have to lean their way in respect to a definitive outcome here. They have failed to score more than 2 goals in an away encounter this season though whilst Adelaide have scored at least one goal in every game since Kosmina took the reigns.
I'll go for Perth to win 2-1 but with little confidence looking at historical precedents, which probably suggest the win will go to Adelaide by perhaps that same score.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

A-League Round 17

2 games to be played on Wednesday 16 January;

Sydney FC vs Perth Glory

History;

19 matches between these 2 with Sydney having far the better of it with 9 wins compared to Perths' 4 and 6 draws.

Sydney have won the past 5 times these two have met and Perth have failed to score in the last 4 of them.

Perth have beaten Sydney twice in Sydney from 8 games and lost 4 times.
At home Perth have only beaten Sydney once in 11 games!

The last meeting between these 2 in November ended in a 1-0 away win to Sydney.

Current Form;

Note this game is to be played at Campbelltown rather than the SFS which is probably a bonus for Sydney because their form at the latter stadium is strangely below par. The last home fixture played away from that ground was Sydneys best performance of the season when they defeated a then rampant Brisbane Roar 2-0 and ended their record breaking 36 match streak.

The come into this fixture  off 4 consecutive defeats and not having won in 5 matches. Interestingly they have played the same 4 teams as Perth have in the past 3 weeks or so. They of course have won none', whereas Perth have won 2 and drawn 1 with 1 loss. Results below;

Brisbane 2 Sydney 1
Sydney 0 Central Coast 1
Wellington 4 Sydney 2
Sydney 0 Melbourne Heart 4

Melbourne Heart 1 Perth 2
Wellington 0 Perth 1
Perth 3 Brisbane 3
Perth 1 Central Coast Mariners 3

These results look very damning for Sydney but it has to be said that their last 2 performances against the top 2 teams in the competition have been very good. They possibly could have got a point out of the Central Coast Mariners match and all but had Brisbane on toast, only to concede all points in the last 2 mintes of injury time. How they react after that match is anyones guess really.
Statistically the 4 matches above tell us that Sydney have only scored 3 goals and conceded 11 for a -8 goal difference, whilst Perth have scored 7 and conceded 7 for a 0 goal difference. Even more damning for Sydney.

Added to that Perth are "on a roll" full of confidence off the back of 2 away wins and will be aiming to make it 3 in a row here. That possibility would have been untenable a month ago, they were playing so poorly. And now Sydney find themselves in pretty much the same predicament. They are scoring way too few goals right now and conceding way too many. And that is surprising because they did have a goal difference of +2 before their last 4 matches and were probably the 2nd most consistent team in the competition behind Central Coast. Now it is -6, one goal inferior to Perth (-5) and they have become the least conistent team in the comp.

Interestingly too 7 of the points Sydney have attained this season have been the result of late goals scored from the 80th minute onward. They haven't managed to score one in that period in their past 5 matches. Does this suggest that they are now tiring late in games as opposed to earlier in the season?
Is fitness an issue or is it moreso mental fatigue/lack of confidence in their ability to finish a game off on a positive note?

Prediction;

The sheer unpredictability of this League suggests that Sydney FC are due to have a very positive outcome in this match, after a run of very poor results, albeit not much luck in their past 2 games. But they come up against a very in form Perth side who have suddenly bonded into a resilient unit, significantly away from home. It would be some feat if Perth could achieve 3 consecutive wins on the road but on current form that seems more likely than a Sydney win.
Sydney are very firm favourites but I just can't see how anybody can tip them (and as favourites!) until their current run of poor results is rectified. Absolutely no value at all for your punting dollar (if you are that way inclined).

Either a Draw or Perth to win for my money, and that is where the betting value lies.


Melbourne Heart vs Central Coast Mariners;

History and stats;



Only 4 games between these 2 with Central Coast having far the better of it with 3 wins and a draw the last time these 2 met in an identical fixture.

Melbourne Heart have gone 4 games without a win whilst Central Coast are unbeaten in 13 and remarkably have won their last 6 away games.

Current Form;

Melbourne Heart are really struggling since captain Fred has been absent through injury. About the only thing I can find in their favour is the late start for this match as they have played in trying condtions in their past 3 games. Then again though so have their opposition.
The talent is certainly there and young Babalj up front had a ripper of a game last time out against Perth. Only a goalkeeping error made the difference in that game and the performance all round was a darn side better than what was on display in the previous 2 games. This could be a whole new world of pain for them though coming up against the most consistent team in the competition, who will relentlessly pursue victory to the bitter end in all likelihood.

Central Coast might be starting to find life a little more difficult now that they no longer  have talismanic Striker Matt Simon, but they still seem to be able to find goals from elsewhere on the park and their busy midfielders are always keeping defences on the hop. Their away form is phenomenol and anything less than a win here is going to be deemed as a failure. Graham Arnold will have them ready to go to battle again here.

Prediction;

Very hard to see Central Coast relinquishing full points here and they are highly favoured to win in betting markets which is no surprise given their consistency and lofty table position. If Melbourne Heart play to their ability and match the commitment of their opposition in this match they can possibly draw this one, but on form and statistics this really looks to be another great chance for Central Coast to come away with the spoils.




Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix 20/1

History and Stats;

15 games between the 2 and Wellington have fared far better winning 9 of them with only 2 draws.

Newcastle have not played Wellington at home in their past 4 matches and have lost all of them, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 12 times.

At home in this clash Newcastle have slightly the better of it with 3 wins, 2 losses and a draw from 6 matches. They have never beaten Wellington at home by more than 1 goal in normal time.

Newcastle have managed 5 wins this season and they have all been at home.

Wellington have only won 1 away match this season and that was their last performance against Gold Coast.


Current form;

Newcastle have definitely improved of late, beating Gold Coast, respectably beaten against Melbourne Victory and well worth their draw against league leaders Central Coast. Their overall  home form whilst not as good as it could be, is a darn side better than their away form. Their last effort (away) was arguably their best of the season and they should come into this match with a lot of confidence.
They have managed to score 3 goals on 3 occasions at home this year and will hope to do same here.

Wellington will be buoyed by their only away win this season against Gold Coast but it was a pretty fortuitous one. Most teams seem to struggle a bit when taking on Newcastle at home and they will probably need to lift a notch here to come away with all 3 points. They have a vastly experienced squad and a lot of quality in their ranks. Goals seem to flow out of that quality at home but on the road they struggle for the same output and haven't managed to score more than 1 in any away fixture this year.

Prediction;

This could go either way but I get the feeling that Newcastle will be a bit more desperate for the points than Wellington, and they are pretty effective at Ausgrid stadium. They have a youthful team and should finish this game off strongly at home and possibly overrun their opponents. As history suggests in this home fixture though, there has never been more than 1 goal separating the 2 teams, so a close match is very much on the cards. I'll go for a Newcastle win here by 2 goals to 1, and the current odds about a home team in reasonable form is acceptable.



Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide Utd 21/01

History and stats;

20 games between the 2 since the A-League began and CC have slightly the better of it overall 8 wins to 6 with 6 draws.

7 matches though since Adelaide have been able to defeat Central Coast and the last clash between the 2 was back in early December 2011 was a cakewalk for the Mariners winning 4-0 away from home.

Central Coast are now unbeaten in 14 games, Adelaide unbeaten in their last 5 since new coach Kosmina took over, and in fact unbeaten in their last 5 away matches.


Current form;

Central Coast have certainly suffered a bit of a dip in form over their past 3 matches but you wouldn't know it looking at the results of their last 3 games with 2 wins and a draw. Since Matt Simon departed they haven't looked as lethal up front and but for the ingenuity shown by Michael McGlinchey in midfield, and the heroics of Mat Ryan in goal they may well have lost at least two of their last 3 matches.
Their players were 'flat' and totally ouplayed by Melbourne Heart on Wednesday night, yet they miraculously found the winner out of nothing with a couple of minutes left on the clock. But for their goalkeeper though they would have been well and truly buried before that.
They have to back up here and need to find a bit more energy than they did 3 days ago against a team that has found a new lease of life.
Although they are unbeaten at home this season their away form is actually superior. It seems the bumpy field at Bluetongue stadium isn't ideally suited to their style of play, so it does give away teams a bit of added hope.

Adelaide are proving tough for to beat for every team that meets them at present and coach Kosmina really has peformed a minor miracle in strengthening their resolve and improving the confidence levels. They have been behind in their last 2 matches but fought back strongly in the second half on both occasions. The 3 players they have in their attacking diamond (Van Dyke, Vidosic, Djite) are always going to produce problems for opposition defences and this time they have the added advantage of playing against a defence that might be a little more fatigued than usual. And their away form is actually better than their home form this year.

Prediction;

Hard to be overly confident in predicting that any team can get the better of Central Coast at present, but there are signs that it could happen in the near future, and they might be a bit vulnerable here given the short break between games, and their 'flat' performance on Wednesday.
They are ridiculously short in the betting at odds on with Adelaide at a juicy $4.75 to win. That is too much for me to resist and I'm going to tip a narrow win to the visitors, which would be a sizeable upset. CC's freak goalkeeper might have a bit to say about that!
Reasonably confident that Adelaide can get at least a draw in any case.


Melbourne Heart vs Brisbane Roar 21/01


History and Stats;

One again not a lot of history to look at with Melbourne Heart a fairly recent acquisition to the A-League.

4 games between the 2 and Brisbane had totally dominated proceedings until their last meeting when Heart upset the applecart at Suncorp Stadium. They were $6.50 to win that night with Brisbane Roar $1.44.

Heart are on a poor run atm losing 3 and drawing 1 of their last 4 matches. Before that they were unbeaten in 5 matches.

Interestingly in games Heart have played after kickoff time of 4.30 they have won 4 and drawn 3 of 7 .
In games of earlier start times they have only won 3 and drawn 3 of  10 matches with 4 losses.
Not sure there is much in that whole equation but at least you could say they are suited playing later in the day, and this one kicks off at 6.45p.m.

On the negative side Heart have lost their last 3 matches at home after winning their previous 3.

Brisbane Roar have failed to win in their last 5 away matches and have lost 3 of them. The last 2 have been draws though.
Similarly Brisbane seem to save their best form for Evening games with 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses after 4.45 as opposed to 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in games before that start time.


Current Form;

Melbourne Heart have had a miserable run of late mainly since the loss of their influential Captain Fred to injury. They were absolutlely superb against Central Coast on Wednesday night and having thought about that match since I'm absolutley comvinced that had any other Goalkeeper than Matt Ryan been between the posts for Central Coast, Heart would have scored at least 2 goals, meaning they would have won that match in all likelihood. Their total domination of that match had to be seen to be believed against the high flying league leaders ,and it seems they have overcome the lack of creativity that had plagued them since Freds' departure, with Jonaton Germano & Alex Terra supplying a cutting edge to their attack. Both have had very little playing time of late with the former injured since the win against Brisbane, and the latter normally only starting off the bench.
They need to erase the disappointment of Wednesday out of their Psyche for this game and if they do so are going to be very hard to beat. The quick backup could be a problem but Eli Babalj might return (a big bonus) and as mentioned Germano & Terra should be relatively fresh not having played a lot in recent times. Coach Van't Schip has mentioned that Brisbane are a much different team to Central Coast in regard to possession Football and tactics will be amended tonight to counter the retentive style of Brisbanes' play. They managed to overcome Brisbane the last time they met earlier this season so have every chance to do so again here.

Brisbane will be full of confidence after another "Houdini" performance last week in overcoming a resolute Sydney side ,who also had beaten them earlier in the season. Broich and Henrique returned there in the 2nd half and their mere presence seemed to once again provoke a minor miracle. Neither had a lot of direct influence, but both just seem to add a different dimension in attack and give oppositon defences a bit more to worry about. It will be interesting to see how both are employed in this match.
A lot will depend on whether Besart Berisha sits this one out or not after a one match ban was imposed on him earlier this week. Without his poaching instinct Brisbane could be found wanting in their final attacking third. They haven't been without him thus far this season and a massive hole will have to be filled by somebody largely unfamiliar to the role. And it could negate the positive effect of having their 2 creative most creative players back on the park.

Prediction;

I will be disappointed if this isn't one of the games of the season. I'm pretty convinced that Melbourne Heart are the most creative and penetrative team in this League ,and probably have the quickest players too which enables them to be so. They can really produce a shock wave in this match if they repeat their effort of Wednesday night.
But they have to overcome a team that have had their self belief reignited upon the return of arguably their 2 most creative influences.
I expect this one to go right to the wire. It could be dangerous if Heart are just content to sit back and counter attack, as Brisbane could make them pay early. If they are prepared to play a high defnsive line though and not give Brisbane a chance to get into their rhythm, then they could boss the game with the speed they have have to call on.
A high class draw is on the cards I feel but if Berisha doesn't play then I give Melbourne Heart the edge in this one.

Sydney FC vs Gold Coast United 22/01


History and Stats;

8 matches between the 2 with Gold Coast having the better of the clashes with 4 wins compared to Sydneys' 2, and 2 draws.

In this fixture at home though Sydney have 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw. This is the 3rd game between the 2 teams this season. The corresponding fixture in November ending in a rather fortuitous win to Sydney 3-2, whilst a 0-0 draw ensued up at Skilled Park some 5 weeks later.

Sydney have a very poor record at the SFS this year with only 1 win from 6 which includes 4 losses!
Gold Coast were very poor away from home earlier in the season but have arrested that problem in their last 3 games with a win, a draw and a meritorius 3-2 loss to Newcastle in their latest effort. And the draw was against league leaders Central Coast.

Current Form;

Both sides are really struggling to put points on the board but at least Sydney halted a 4 match losing streak against Perth on Wednesday, albeit the match ending disappointingly for them, conceding late.
They have been in control of both their last 2 encounters and let points slip which is exactly the opposite to what was happening earlier in the season.
They will most likely welcome back the controversial Pascal Bosschaart to their defensive lineup and the influential Nick Carle should be back to his peak now after missing a few matches during that losing streak.

Gold Coast are on probably more of a downer than even Sydney are at present. Despite their adventurous nature and creativity they have blown chance after chance in their last 2 matches and the confidence is suffering as a result. It is up to the senior players to help their impressive youngsters out of this mini slump but 3 of them are likely to miss this game, namely Paul Beekmans, Dylan McCallister and Maceo Rigters. The latter is still some hope of starting but even if he does he won't be fully fit. The other 2 are definitely out with McAllister a long term absentee.
The last time Beekmans missed an away game Gold Coast were very poor against Perth and significantly McAllister did score in the corresponding clash between these 2 in November.
It does give a couple of new players a chance though and ironically that could be a positive for Gold Coast if the changes can add something to their clinicalness in front of goal.

Prediction;

One can sense that his is a real D-day for Sydney in terms of their final aspirations this year. If they can't beat the bottom side that is down on their luck (and beset by injury) at home then you can just about write them off as contenders. The positive thing for them is that they have snapped their losing streak with that draw and in this League that invariably leads to a win next match.
On the flip side Gold Coast are really down on their confidence and winning away from home in that frame of mind is exceptionally hard to do historically. They are a more adventurous side than Sydney and have far more potential, but turning that potential into goals is the task facing Miron Bleiberg at present. I'm not sure this is the game for them to do it in, against a very experinced defence which includes Bosschaart, Beauchamp and McFlynn.

I give Sydney the edge here on current form. Not a lot wrong with their last 2 efforts and at least they have scored 2 in those past 2 games opposed to Gold Coast who have only scored one and butchered a plethora of chances whilst trying to.
They are at full strength and Gold Coast have significant changes in Personnel.

But would I take odds on about Sydney?

Not on your Nellie!


Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory 22/01

History and Stats;

19 matches between these 2 and honours are dead even with 7 wins each and 5 draws.
In 9 games at home in this corresponding fixture Perth have been dominant winning 6, drawing 1 and losing 2 both times by a single goal (1-2).

The last time these 2 met in Melbourne back in November Victory led 2-0 before a resurgent Perth stole a point with 2 second half goals, one in the 89th minute.

Perth are 5 games unbeaten coming into this clash. They have managed to score the last goal of the game in their past 4 matches.
They haven't won any of their past 3 home matches though, losing 2 before a spirited high scoring 3-3 draw against Brisbane in their last effort


Melbourne Victory have lost their past 4 away games and it's been 6 since they managed to win one. They have conceded 11 goals in that spell and only converted on 4 occasions. On the positive side they are unbeaten in their past 2 matches, albeit at home since the arrival of new coach Jim Magilton.

39 goals scored in the past 10 matches between these 2 so more than 3 goals in this match is a distinct possibility.

Current Form;

Perth are riding high and will take a lot of confidence out of 3 unbeaten away clashes (winning 2) and a new found ability to score 2nd half goals to decide results. Whilst their home form hasn't been flash in recent times they were struggling for form at the time and should be a different proposition in this clash. They have done a bit of travelling though of late and played in very hot conditions on Wednesday. They finished that game better than their opposition though so psychologically they should be "up" for this game, if not physically.

Conversely Melbourne need to improve away from home dramatically and stop conceding goals and territorial advantage in the 2nd half of their matches. New coach Magilton has had a bit more time to enforce his philosophy coming into this match and since Harry Kewell has been deployed to a midfield role the offensive side of Victorys'  game has improved significantly and their general play has a bit more structure.  But attack is not where their problems lie, it is more in their defensive reslience in structure where they have struggled all season and I'm not sure that Magilton will have the answers yet.

Prediction;

Hard to tip against Perth given recent results and history. Going on 2nd half performances of late they are going to get the better of Victory in the later stages of this game and the home crowd could prove decisive in the regard.
I'm not totally confident but I think Perth can edge this game and the odds about them ($2.40+) is very satisfactory given they a home team in form.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Round 2 to Berishas' Brisbane!

In the Orange corner we have the " Bizarre behaviour of Besart Berisha".
and...........................In the Blue corner the "Brazen, Battered, Bruised, Belittled and Berated (Pascal) Bosschaart".

And so it was. The battle of  2 of the boldest haircuts in the A-League eventually overshadowing what can best be described as an epic contest, decided yet again by a Brisbane Roar "Houdini act" that only they seem capable of accomplishing.

Just what got into Besarts' head here though is a mystery probably known only to him.
During the week he was under an injury cloud but commented that "only god could stop him" from taking his place in the starting side, and that he "didn't want to let down his teammates". Well as it transpires he may well have done so here, if  his rather irresponsible actions are deemed to have brought the game into disrepute (or something similar).

Quite obviously words were exchanged between he and Bosschaart during the match, and maybe physical things of a quite sensitive nature too. But really all Berisha needed to do at full time was remind Pascal of the scoreline, who eventually inflicted it, perhaps give him the finger, then depart the scene. Instead the shirt had to come off (normally a yellow card offence), Bosschaart was ushered to the tunnel and Berisha sped off to the touchline and waited to see if Pascal had accepted his invitation. And he duly did, despite it has to be said, in a state of stunned bewilderment at what had cruelly transpired only a minute or so earlier, to him and his team. Seriously if that wasn't punishment enough, now he had to pick himself off the canvas and front up to a wild eyed Albanian who had yet another score to settle!

Enter stage left the real hero of the night in the shape of injured (or out of favour) teammate James Meyer, formally dressed, no studs to assist stability, and seemingly punching beyond his weight limit, especially at that moment. He somehow managed to contain the raging bull in a relentless Bear Hug. A truly matadorial display of courage from young James which almost certaintly prevented either a riot, or, alternatively an all in brawl that opposing teams in a State Of Origin meeting would have been proud of. Regardless of whether Berisha gets hit with a suspension or not as a result of this, surely James must get a medal for this effort.................... and it would have to be Gold.
Bravo James!

Given the fact that Sydney ended Brisbanes' 36  match unbeaten run earlier this season and now found themselves on the receiving end of the one of the cruellest Football results ever, could this be the pre cursor to one of the great sporting rivalries in Australian club sport. A Soccer (Football) fixture to rival that of that famed Rugby League series, the aforementioned State Of Origin? After all the same 2 states are involved.

If it ensures this sort of drama, I bloody well hope so!

Thursday, January 12, 2012

A-League Round 16

Another 5 matches to get excited about this weekend  starting with the unofficial Derby between bitter rivals Melbourne Victory and Adelaide on Friday night at Etihad stadium, and ending with the Gold Coast Utd- Wellington clash on Sunday evening.

Betting markets strongly suggest that every home team will be winning this weekend, with only Gold Coast Utd 'in the black', but only just. Statistics over a number of years tell us that the Home team will only win between 45%-50% of the time so be sure to expect 1 or 2 upsets yet again this round. Whether that be Draws or Away wins is problematical, but between them historically, they do make up at least 50% of overall results.



Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United



Overall, Head to Head, Victory 14 wins Adelaide 8 wins.

Adelaide have won 3 of last 4 clashes with last meeting a 1-1 draw.

Prior to that Victory had won 10 in a row!

Last 2 with Victory at home- 1-1 draw and 1-4 to Adelaide.

Last 4 clashes Van Dyke and Barbiero have scored 5 goals between them.

Victory unbeaten at home this season, 3 wins and 5 draws.

Adelaide 3 draws and a win last 4 away games. Win was in last away match against

Melbourne Heart.

Cross border rivalry at it's best in this clash which rarely disappoints. There is more than just a little bit of added interest this time around with Victory under the tutelage of a new Manager/Coach in Jim Magilton, and the man Victory fans seem to love to hate, John Kosmina returning to Etihad with no doubt grand plans to rain on Magiltons' parade. Added to that Kossie and Kevin Muscat will renew acquaintances (this time on their respective benches) after perhaps the most infamous "bust up" in A-League history a few seasons ago whereby the Adelaide manager was sent flying backwards off his chair by on field player Muscat , who was apparently trying to retrieve the ball. If memory serves correct Kossie lost not only his temper in that incident, but also his most favoured possession of all- A cup full of coffee!
There would be no better prelude to this match than to see Muscat present Kossie with a cuppa prior to kick off, but I doubt that will happen. More likely it would be a glass half full!

Jim Magilton is talking in terms of  taking it "day by day", and "week by week" with no "quick fix" and whilst that serves beautifully to release the pressure valve of expectation on himself, Victory fans (and Management perhaps) will be expecting instant success here in this match, especially considering they did win at home last week against Newcastle. As always the new Manager should evoke a very positive action from his players here, with 'slates wiped clean' and positions on the field potentially up for grabs. They were the better side last week against Newcastle and certainly deserved their win. It was their best defensive performance for some time and their form at Etihad this season has been very reliable, picking up points on every occasion. Captain Adrian Leijer is likely to return for this one which should add further stability to their defence.

Adelaide have reinvented themselves under Kosmina and should come to Melbourne with plenty of confidence, unbeaten in 4 games, and 'with the wood' on their arch enemy in their last 4 match ups. Perhaps significantly though Kosmina has not been at the helm in that period and Adelaide did lose an incredible 10 matches in a row prior to the recent 4 match recovery.

In my opinion Adelaide have rode their luck a bit in each of their past 4 performances. Their display against Brisbane last week was disappointing and they were extremely fortunate to get anything out of that game. If they employ similar 'sit back' tactics here their luck is very likely to run out, and a rejuventated Victory outfit will simply overrun them with a likely huge crowd willing them on.
Dario Vidosic has to be more influential this week and in general the whole Adelaide team will need to lift a notch to match it with their rivals.

I'm tipping Victory to win this one and it's definitely hard to see them losing it given all that has been spoken of above. Expectation can be a poison chalice though, and Adelaide might well revel in their underdog status.




Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle

25 matches between these two teams in the A-League.

9 wins to Central coast against 8 wins for Newcastle with 8 draws.

19 matches under 2.25 goals with only 6 matches with more goals than that.

Last match December 10, 2011 resulted in 2-0 home win to Mariners.

Mariners have won last 3 home matches in this fixture scoring 6 goals and conceding none.

Overall Central Coast have won 6 of their home fixtures against Newcastle, drawn 5 and lost 2.

Newcastle are yet to win away from home this season from 7 games and lost 6 of them.

Conversely Central Coast are unbeaten at home this season with 4 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches.


Historically, local Derby matches suggest very tight encounters and past statistics between these two indicate pretty much the same. At the moment though there isn't too much to suggest that the current disparity in league standings between these 2 sides is going to be breached any time soon. Central Coast are flying high whereas Newcastle Jets somewhat ironically, are yet to really takeoff. As stated before their game against Melbourne Victory 2 weeks ago CC are a team in the true sense of the word and are now unbeaten in 12 games. They started life last week without top goal scorer Matt Simon with some aplomb, and there always seems to be somebody ready to add their name to an already impressive tally of goalscorers this season. Last week it was Oliver Bozanic who became the 10th representative of an inexclusive club.

Newcastle Jets are currently hovering somewhere between steady improvement and 'Wooden Spoon' oblivion. It is extremely hard to be convinced by comments made by Manager Gary Van Egmont (better known as GVE) in relation to the club having a grand plan (aka Brisbane Roar) and the need to stick to his seemingly dictatorial doctrine players fitting into a formation rather than using a formation that suits the players he has. Winning seemingly isn't that important yet as long as the process is abided to. His claims last week (in the game against Melbourne Victory) of his team being the "Mainstays"  and "We controlled it" can best be termed as 'deluded'  to anyone who actually watched proceedings.
Arguably their most influential player Kasey Wehrman has now found himself on the outer after he seemingly made the mistake of disagreeing with the direction the club is taking and making his thoughts public, or at least that is what has been reported.  So in contrast to the Mariners, team harmony at Newcastle may not be quite what it should be.
And neither is their form away from home, yet to win this season. One thing in their favour here is they don't have to travel far, but is was only roughly a month ago this same fixture was held and they came away a little deflated. They did beat Central Coast at home in Round 3 but 'a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then' with CC rising way above it and Newcastle struggling to fight against the current.

There is no doubt that Newcastle can make life hard for Central Coast in what is likely to be a well attended fixture for both teams. The best outcome for them on current form would seem to be a draw.
Wins are now becoming almost a necessity for Newcastle though and possibly even moreso for Van Egmont who probably needs to promote some self belief in his coaching style and prophecy. Otherwise those initials might soon spell something very different- Gone Very Early!
Best of luck to Gary and his players anyway. It would be great to see this young Newcastle side grow in confidence and find themselves in finals contention come next April. The A-League would be all the better for it I'm sure.

The biggest concern for Central Coast here is complacency or 'resting on their laurels'. But coach Graham Arnold seems exceptionally good at keeping his players grounded and their consistency this year owes much to giving due respect to their opposition. Given that I'm going for Central Coast to win this by at least 1 goal.



Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC

Last 8 matches between the 2 and Brisbane have won 5 of them and drawn 1.

Of those 8 games only once has there been more than 2.25 goals scored.

Last 3 times this fixure has been played at Suncorp Brisbane has won 1-0 on each occasion.

In 8 games away this season Sydney have won 3, Drawn 3 and lost 2. Significantly the 2 losses

have been against Wellington, so on the mainland they are unbeaten from 6. Their away form

is significantly better than their away form and in fact they are the only team this year to

win an away game off a loss in their previous match.

Brisbane Roar look as though they will be back to full strength for this match with Thomas Broich and Henrique available for selection and you'd think both will get at least some game time.
At the time of writing there is some conjecture over whether top scorer Besart Berisha will play and despite the fact that he hasn't scored for some 7 weeks or so his omission would probably leave an even bigger hole than the one left by Broich in that same time period (Berishas' last goal was  in fact scored in the last game Broich was present) as there is no obvious replacement. He says "that only God will stop me playing" but then again Ange Postecoglou is his boss and might well overrule anything that God might have to say, with one eye on the upcoming Asian Champions League in March!

Brisbane will be acutely aware of what Sydney did to them some 8 games ago in round 9 ending their amazing run of 36 games unbeaten. But whether they can combat the tactics that brought them undone that day is the lingering question, provided of course that Sydney FC can raise their game up to that standard once again. One has to consider too the unusual weather conditions that seemed to transpire against Brisbane at Kogarah that day, with a freak gust of wind almost wholly responsible for Sydneys' 2nd goal from a Brett Emerton inswinging corner. The ball was literally thrown into the goal without another player touching it. That withstanding Brisbane just 'weren't at the races' that day and Sydney came away deserved winner more or less as a result of their greater desire and tactical prowess.

Sydney need to find that sort of form again in a hurry because since that somewhat historic day they have only managed to win one match. It was away from home though against Newcastle and in general their form on the road this season has been better than their home form (especially at the SFS) for whatever reason. And they do seem to be a team that plays better when the expectations aren't as high on them as underdogs against seemingly better opposition. That was pretty much the case last week against League leader Central Coast, only going down by a solitary goal and pressing hard for an equaliser in the last 15 minutes.
They know what tactics are required to beat Brisbane ,and how hard they need to work to achieve that goal so it is just a matter of whether there is enough confidence in the camp at present to bring about another upset. 

Given these 2 teams normally have low scoring encounters with only 1 or 2 goals deciding the outcome the disparity in betting markets is way too wide.
Brisbane will be expected to return to their very best here and that is a rather big ask just because 2 of their best players are coming back off lengthy spells on the sidelines. Both will almost certainly need a match or 2 to return to their very best.
So I see this match as a danger one for Brisbane in so much as there could be complacency in the camp (especially if Berisha plays) with the return of arguably their 2 best attacking players. That said they are a better team than Sydney and have won their last 3 matches against them at home. It wouldn't be surprising to see a 1-0 scoreline yet again but I'm tipping a 0-0 or 1-1 draw with a Sydney side capable of raising their game against better opposition, as they did the last time these 2 met. 
But they will need to stop Brisbane playing out from the back and give Eric Paartalu far less time on the ball than Adelaide managed to last week, to be any chance at all in reality.







Melbourne Heart vs Perth Glory

5 matches between the 2 with 1 win each and 3 draws.

Last 2 matches this season between the 2 have resulted in a 2-1 away win to the away team.

Heart at home this season- 3 wins, 2 losses and a draw. They lost their last home match.

Perth away this season- 2 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws. They won their last away match last week across the

Tasman.

This fixture could well be called Melbourne (lack of) Heart vs Perth (returning to some former) Glory.

The Heart were absolutely disgraceful last week against the Gold Coast. Their lack of desire was palbable after they scored some 20 minutes into the first half. From there they pretty much 'parked the bus' and invited the opposition to equalise. The fact that took an eternity to happen says very little about Hearts' defensive resolve. It was more that fortune smiled upon them until that point, and, realistically, they were extremely lucky not to be on the receiving end of a decent drubbing.
To be fair they did create one or two scoring chances of their own that weren't taken, but Gold Coast overall deserved a lot better than the draw they got.
Captain Fred, clearly their lynchpin in midfield is definitely out for a month or so aggravating a groin injury in that match, and without him Heart would appear to be facing an uphill battle in the next 6 days or so, in which time they play 3 matches. They need to find a solution to Freds' absence, and their dip in form, and do it very quickly. I would imagine that  Matt Thompson will take the Captains' armband. The added responsibility that comes with that will hopefully ignite a spark in him, because
Hearts' dip in form seems to have coincided with his lack of influence on the park, particularly in an attacking sense.


Perth are coming good at the right time to push for a finals place rather than the Authors' prediction of Wooden Spoon certainty! I missed their performance in Wellington last week which surely goes down as the upset of this A-League season. It seems that they deserved their victory, though perhaps the atrocious conditions played into their hands a little bit?
Coach Ferguson has made mention of the fact that 15 players in his squad are up for contract renewal, with that factor one of the keys to their recent resurgence. He also cites that he doesn't like to see players on long term contracts as  they don't need to perform week in, week out. Interesting!
To my mind bringing this issue into the media is going to do nothing for team morale and could in fact become counter productive. The situation at Gold Coast United is even grimmer on that front if I understand it correctly, with no player on anything more than a 12 month contract. It's certainly worked a treat there, with them propping up the ladder, albeit some decent performances of late! I'm not sure it says a lot about the person at the helm if it takes contractual suffocation to motivate a player. I'm not a management guru by any means but one thing I did glean from said courses some 2 decades ago is that job security is far greater motivation, along with leadership that inspires. Worrying about whether you have a job at the club next year seems hardly ideal in view of long term success on the pitch. Ironically being on a short term contract could even suit some players and be counter productive to their current club. If they perform adequately they may be in a better position to move to a higher bidder, on a longer term contract that does offer job security.

Anyhow back to the game! Going on recent performances I find it almost impossible to tip Melbourne Heart to win this. Perth are playing better at the moment and are almost back to full strength. Gun striker Smeltz is fit again and this away match isn't as logistically difficult as their previous one. The whole contract situation is possibly added motivation in the short term and they are playing a side struggling for form, and not responsive to adversity at present.

Either Perth to win or a draw is my prediction. I haven't been right this week thus far though so that can be taken with a pinch of salt!


Gold Coast Utd vs Wellington Phoenix

7 matches between the 2 with honours even at 2 wins a piece and 3 draws.

2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss for Gold Coast in this fixture at home and Wellington have

only played Gold Coast twice on their side of the Tasman.

Wellington have not scored more than 1 goal in the 5 matches they have played at Skilled Park. 3 goals for 6 against.

Vice versa for Gold Coast of course.

Last match at Skilled Park October 9 2011 resulted in 1-1 draw.

In 6 away games this season Wellington are yet to win with 2 draws and 4 losses.

On the positive side 2 away games in Qld this season have resulted in 2 draws, both 1-1.

Gold Coast 6 games at home this season and only lost 1, with 2 wins and 3 draws.


As betting markets suggest this is the toughest game of the round to predict and personally I can't find a way to spit the two teams.
Gold Coast have been solid at home all season, whereas Wellington have been disappointing away from home. That suggests a Gold Coast win but the last meeting here very nearly went Wellingtons' way earlier this season with James Brown scoring late for the home team.
Gold Coast should have won last week and barring profligacy in front of goal certainly would have. They were denied by the woodwork on more than one occasion too, so perhaps fate will be kinder to them here given a similar performance.
Big Dylan Mcallister is back in contention for a starting berth too but regardless of whether he starts or not any appearance will add a different demension for them in attacking sense.
They have the ability in their squad all over the park which belies their current standing on the League table. But they need to start taking maximum points right now so poise in front of goal and more than just a modicum of self belief is going to be required in this match.

Wellington too have a very decent playing roster and a great ability to play attractive Football. For their sake hopefully the defeat against Perth was just a blip on the radar because Finals Football is well within their grasp this year and their performances over the past couple of months certainly warrants them attaining that status. In previous seasons they have tended to implode though and their away form this year hasn't been good enough to arrest the belief that it might happen again this time.
Paul Ifill is a key player for them, seems back to full fitness and should start this game rather than joining it off the bench.  Alex Smith is also up for selection here and he has a point to prove after being overlooked by Miron Bleiberg before the season started. He has been influential when given his chance this season and could be similarly effective here.

If my research is correct only one team this year has managed to win an away game after a previous loss, either at home or away in that prior game, and that was Sydney FC in round 2 (they nearly did same last night!). That would make the prospect of Wellington winning here look rather remote especially given their dreadful away statistics. As I write this the rain is pouring down. That factor certainly didn't help Wellington last week and could well be an issue again.

Either a Gold Coast win or a Draw are the most likely outcomes here. Hard to see Wellington taking maximum points but I'm trusting they can bring something like their A game to the glitter strip which should be good enough to earn them a share of the spoils.
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