Berisha breaking new ground!

When the Australian A-League player awards are conducted later this season it is very likely that Brisbane Roars' Besart Berisha will 'scoop the pool' with at least 3 accolades bestowed upon him.
I'm not quite sure what the categories are, but right now he would appear to be a 'shoe in' for 3 awards that have been presented in the past;

a) Top Goalscorer
b) Best Player
c) Best Import

With 17 goals this season from 23 A-League matches at an average of 0.77 goals per game  one could be forgiven for thinking that Besart is typical of the single minded Striker who solely benefits from industrious team mates, and merely finishes off their good work at the pointy end of attacks.

But in reality nothing could be further from the truth. Anybody that thinks otherwise really needs to have a good look at last nights Round 23 clash against Perth Glory (in Perth) as just one example.
Not only did he slot home 2, and make 1 of the 3 goals Brisbane Roar scored, his true worth really stood out from the 65th minute mark, directly after his strike partner Henrique was sent from the field.
From that point on Berisha (I'm assuming) took it upon himself to largely relinquish his central striker role, freeing himself up to stem attacking raids deep inside his teams defensive 3rd of the pitch, secondary only to playing a quite Masterful central midfield role, controlling a lot of the possession, pretty much negating any hope Perth might have had of clawing their way back into the match.
It really was a joy to watch as this kind of work rate and commitment to the team cause, so often lacking in the modern game. Having said that I'm not even sure that his coach even approved of the kind of positional 'switcheroo' that Berisha employed last night. But there is absolutely no doubt  that Roar Supremo Ange Postecoglou appreciates just what an asset the Albanian is to his team, that kind of 'passion in spades' would have been largely in the forefront of his thinking before rewarding him a further 2 year contract, less than a month ago. And what a coup that might well prove to be, because at the end to the upcoming Asian Champions League in November, Berisha could be the most sought after player in the region, at least on the form he is displaying at present. The A-League scoring record of 19 goals set by Shane Smeltz now seems well and truly a formality for him to overtake, and with 6 goals in his past 4 games, it appears that he will do so sooner rather than later. There are 6 games left for Brisbane Roar in the regular season, possibly 3 or 4 in the Final series, and an Asian Champions League campaign to come, so just how many more he can add is really anybody's guess.

You could also be forgiven for thinking that everything has been plain sailing for the humble and likeable Albanian this season. Once again though that really isn't the case.
After scoring an impressive 9 goals from his first 8 games in the A-League (including 4 in one game) culminating with 2 in the Roars' 36 game record breaking match against Perth in round 8, the goals dried up for him. It was bad enough that his team stumbled to an untenable 5 losses in a row thereafter, but for Berisha it would be another 4 matches before he would break the drought.

And it couldn't have come at a better time, possibly one of the most memorable goals ever in the A-League, not on the score of quality, but for sheer timing and almost immediate controversy, it won't be forgotten easily. It came at home against Sydney in Round 17. All seemed lost for the Roar who trailed 1-0 for the majority of the match until Sayed Mohamed Adnan scored a spectacular equalising free kick deep into injury time. A minute or so later Brisbane staged another attack down the left with Shane Steffanuto supplying a telling cross to an unmarked Mitch Nichols who cleverly first touched the ball, at speed, into the six yard box where Berisha was waiting, his superb reflexes coming to the fore, finishing off a half chance with great aplomb.



What happened shortly thereafter at the final whistle very much overshadowed what could well have been a glorious moment for the Albanian. Rather than soak up the adulation of scoring (and breaking the drought) a dramatic winner Berishas' mind was elsewhere, seeking to settle an even bigger score with an opposition player who had clearly overstepped the boundaries of fair play in his opinion. Whilst taking your shirt off and ushering an opponent to the tunnel for a stoush is hardly admirable at the end of a match, it does perhaps give us a telling insight into him as a player, and an individual.

He won't take a backward step, wears his heart on his sleeve, and has a strong sense of justice. He clearly has little time for self adulation and has commented several times this season on how much the team means to him, and how much he appreciates the players around him.

Add those elements to the his physical attributes- Athleticism, Strength, Stamina, Positional versatility, Acceleration in the penalty box and clnical finishing, and you begin to realise that Besart is just about the complete package, a Managers' dream if you like!

I for one am going to enjoy watching that package revealing even more by seasons end, whether it be in the A-League or the Asian Champions League.

Gold Coast vs Central Coast Mariners (rescheduled match) 22/02

Gold Coast United $5.50
Draw $3.80
Central Coast Mariners $1.58 

Skilled Park Stadium 7.05p.m Wed. 22/02/12


History and Stats;

9 games between these 2 with Central Coast having their noses in front winning 3 to Gold Coasts' 2 with 4 draws.

The last 2 meetings have produced 2 draws only 2 goals and notable they have both been at Gosford and Central Coast have been massive favourites both times. This is their 3rd meeting this season.

In their last meeting here Central Coast were the victors 3-1in February 2011.

Average goals scored in this fixture- 2.33


Current Form;

It has been a tumultuous week to say the least for the team from the Glitter strip. No more Miron Bleiberg as coach and it is hard to gauge just how much respect he did have from the playing group.
Their performance last week against Heart, whilst admirable, lacked any real cohesion and they never really looked as though they could win the game.
Back at home they are a better proposition ,with one or 2 regulars back but the confidence would stillhave to be at an all time low and spectator attendance for this one could very well be too.

Central Coast are still missing a couple of their good young players (especially goalkeeper Matt Ryan) but they appear to be back to something like their best judging on the win against Wellington Phoenix last week. They have more options in attack then they did a week or so ago, and their back 4 were back to keeping a clean sheet for the first time in a while in that game, so overall they should approach this game with a lot of confidence.

Prediction;

Impossible to tip against Central Coast who are back in from and are likely to up their performance level considering that a win here just about ensures them the A-League top spot this year.
Gold Coast are a bit of a bogey side for them though and have one or 2 notable absentees returning from injury, and have a young side with very little to lose. Add to that a high probablility of rain and late thunderstorms and just maybe things could be a little trickier than it might appear on paper.
I have to go with the Mariners though who are a far better team this year, have had a low key preparation compared to their opposition, and should back up well from the weekend given the work ethic of their coach Graham Arnold and their recent ordinary showing off a 2 week break. I'd expect a spirited effort from the home side but class and form should prevail here by possibly a 2 goal margin.

Betting Strategy;

Once again long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at a very inflated price. A draw could possibly get to the required $4+ value too. But given the events of this week and the injury ravaged state of this Gold Coast outfit I couldn't recommend taking either. Central Coast by at least a goal, and although no price is yet available CC defender Patrick Zwaanswijk is normally around the $20 mark for first goalscorer. That is always value considering that he takes free kicks and often scores from headers at corner kicks. He already has 6 goals to his name this season which is an incredible return for a centre back.

A-League Round 21

A much abbreviated summary this week due to time restrictions. On paper the results look fairly predictable as indicated by betting odds. I'd be surprised if everything runs to the script as is so often the case in this League.

Melbourne Heart v Gold Coast United AAMI Park 7:00 PM, Fri 17 Feb 2012


Melbourne Heart 1.62
Draw 3.65
Gold Coast United 5.25

Melbourne Heart have their Captain back for this after an extensive absence and they haven't won a game without him this year. Vice Captain Matt Thompson possibly returns too.
Gold Coast though are absolutely decimated with injury, reportedly 13 of their squad unavailable for selection and even their captain is suspended. A 17 year old made captain and who is yet to play at this level. Ridiculous!
Both teams are hopelessly out of form for this one but Heart have the incentive of getting a finals campaign back on track. They really should win this one but the pressure is on them and nothing much is going to be expected of their opposition, which could be dangerous. Barring complacency though Heart should come up trumps.

Long Term Betting Strategy- Gold Coast away are good value for an away team and the Heart have to be layed at their odds on quote.



Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix Bluetongue Stadium 1 4:30 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Central Coast Mariners 1.90
Draw 3.25
Wellington Phoenix 4.10 

Central Coast meet a somewhat depleted Wellington Phoenix team here who have 2 of their regular back four missing. Manny Muscat returns at right back though which is a bonus. Central Coast have an addition to their offensive ranks in the shape of Englishman John Sutton.  Young Tomas Rogic really made his mark last week despite the loss to Melbourne Victory and Central Coast could well be rebuilding as potent a strike force as they had before Matt Simons' departure. They won't have gelled together yet though and Wellington have proven numerous times this season that they are a force to be reckoned with. They have beaten Central Coast twice at Gosford from 5 matches overall.
I'm going for a draw here at the value.

Average Goals this fixture- 1.8

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Central Coast and back Wellington who are the Value away team.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory 6:45 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Brisbane Roar 1.70
Draw 3.45
Melbourne Victory 5.00

Brisbane are looking back to their Championship winning best having defeated the 2 teams placed above them on the table 2-0 in consecutive weeks. They annihilated a woeful Melbourne Victory here on New Years Eve 2011.
Despite that Victory do actually have a better record in this fixture 5 wins to 3, and they probably played their best match of the season last week in downing the ladder leaders. They will come to Brisbane with their tails up, and with  Carlos Hernandez back in form and favour, they certainly look a more appealing prospect for value bettors.
Brisbane might just hold too many aces though and are still my pick. They may not get beaten again this season, or at least in the run up to the finals.

Average goals this fixture- 2

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Brisbane and back Melbourne Victory who are in fact an amazing price and will be keen to back themselves I'd imagine!




Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets nib Stadium 9:00 PM, Sat 18 Feb 2012

Perth Glory 1.80
Draw 3.40
Newcastle Jets 4.25

Both sides in pretty good form and now well and truly in finals contention.
Perth have been scintillating at home their past 3 matches scoring 11 and only conceding 3.
They had a bit of a reality check last week against a much improved Sydney team but they should return to their best here barring complacency. No easy task  however to knock over a Newcastle team who have strung 3 wins in a row together and 2 of them have been on the road. They are also scoring plenty of goals, averaging 3 in those last three matches. This is a tougher ask though travelling West and a draw would be a good result. I slightly favour Perth but also see a draw as very realistic.

Average Goals this fixture- 3

Long Term Betting Strategy- Lay Perth Glory and back Newcastle Jets at the value 'away' price.


Adelaide United v Sydney FC Hindmarsh Stadium 2012- Sun 19 Feb 2012

Adelaide United 2.40
Draw 3.25
Sydney FC 2.80

Adelaide have been disappointing at home this season and will be backing up for their 3rd game in 7 days here after a Thursday night AFC game against Indonesian side Persipura Jayapura. They were very fortunate to win against Gold Coast last Sunday and are going to have to find better form than that to win this encounter . They will also have to call on energy reserves too and any lingering tiredness from Thursday night should be exploited by a likely resilient Sydney outfit.
Sydney were tremendous last week and will be keen to cement a place in the top 6 here. Brett Emerton impressive in his return, scoring against Perth in that last match. They might have one or 2 other players returning to the fray for this one.
I do fancy Sydney to win this one.

Average Goals this fixture- 3.1

Long Term Betting Strategy- Back Adelaide who are good enough value for a home team.

A-League Round 20

Prices quoted are Unitab odds as at 6.45pm Wednesday 8/02/12

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners AAMI Park 2012-02-10T09:00:00 1 7:00 PM, Fri 10 Feb 2012

Melbourne Victory 2.85
Draw 3.25
Central Coast Mariners 2.40

Head to Head;

All Time- Melbourne Victory 8, Central Coast 7, Draws 3.

This Fixture- Melbourne Victory 3, Central Coast 3, Draws 3

This Season- Central Coast Mariners 2 Melbourne Victory 0 (4/01/12)
                      Central Coast Mariners 0 Melbourne Victory 0 (12/11/11)

Form Guide;

Melbourne Victory are unbeaten at home this season from 11 games but have won only 3 of them with 8 draws. They have been ahead  in their last 3 home matches but failed to win. In fact at home this season they haven't managed to win a second half in regards to outscoring their opponents.
In reality though their home form is far superior to their away form and the old maxim that a home crowd is worth a goal certainly rings true for them.

Central Coast come into this game after losing their first game in 16 matches. They lead the competition by 7 points and have a game in hand (Gold Coast).
Their away form this season is without peer winning 7 of 9 and they have won their last 7.
They had the better of the second half in their last match against Brisbane Roar but failed to trouble the scorer. That was their first game in 14 days due to their abandoned match the week prior, and it appears the break didn't assist them going on their first half performance.

Injuries/Replacements;

Melbourne Victory are likely to play new Spanish Defender Ubay Luzardo if Captain Adrian Leijer succumbs to a groin problem. Grand Brebner is also missing with an ankle problem which could see him miss up to 4 games. This necessitates a change to the midfield where youngster Jimmy Jeggo is tipped to make his debut. He has reportedly been impressive in a midfield role as Captain of the Youth team.

Central Coast also have significant injury concerns with Pedj Boic and Troy Hearfield unavailable for this one. The former in particular will be sorely missed for his lung busting overlapping runs from right full back. He has been very influential in a number of games for the Mariners this season.

* Add to that the fact that Central Coast are still without 3 key youngsters on Olyroos duty and the loss of Matt Simon some weeks ago and this is almost a 2nd team that is being fielded. They still have the same solid Centre Back pairing of Zwaanswijk & Wilkinson, and the impressive Michael McGlinchey in midfield, but that's about it in terms of familiarity.

Prediction;

I couldn't possibly tip Melbourne Victory to win the way they are playing. To say they are below par would be an understatement. If they do happen to lead the match they are likely to cough up a goal late, and if they don't concede, or have a man sent off they generally defend 'like there's no tomorrow'. Go figure!

They do perhaps meet Central Coast at an opportune time. The Mariners have a couple of injury concerns, *a lot of personell changes of late and perhaps some self doubt could creep in now that their winning run has come to an end. We have seen that happen to 2 of the better teams this season in Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Heart.
But it is just as likely that the ladder leaders will show exactly why they are 'top of the pile' and return to something like their best with only the 6 days between games this time.
I think they will return to the winners circle here but probably not by more than 1 goal.

* A late change of mind here remembering the fact that the 3 youngsters are also absent for Central Coast- I'm tipping a draw but have to admit that this is a winnable match for Melbourne Victory and possibly their last chance of the season to make an impression on the top 6. A draw just won't do in terms of League standing and team confidence. Another one would make it 11 for the season and they just could 'draw' themselves out of  finals contention on that count alone


Bet Advice;

Long term betting strategy dictates that you back the home team here at odds of $2.85+. Conversely $2.40 about an away team isn't nearly enough.
Although a draw looks a distinct possibility for this match for some reason betting agencies never offer the $4 odds that are required, unless one of the teams are long odds on.
Central Coast to win by 1 goal and worth considering that more than 2.5 goals in this match is twice as likely than under 2.5 goals historically.
*That price for the home team looks a little more enticing now though I still think a draw is the most likely result.



Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Heart 11/2 Ausgrid Stadium 4:30 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012

Newcastle Jets 2.20
Draw 3.35
Melbourne Heart 3.05

Head To Head;

All Time- Newcastle 2, Heart 2, Draws 1

This Fixture- Newcastle 1, Heart 1, Draw 1

This Season- Heart 3- Newcastle 0 (12/11/11)
                     Newcastle 3- Heart 2 (8/10/11)


Form Guide;

Newcastle come into this off the back of 2 very rare away wins and the only time they have won 2 games 'on the bounce' this season. They have only lost 2 of their last 8 matches and both have been by a solitary goal. The system GaryVan Egmond insisted on developing appears to be taking root.
Very surprising to see them put 3 goals on Sydney FC last week in the first 45 minutes. That eventually proved to be a winning lead but there were anxious moments in the second half with Sydney clawing 2 goals back (and opportunies squandered after that too) before Newcastle gained the upper hand with a couple of clinical finishes. Not a completely convincing performance despite the scoreline, but nevertheless a confidence builder to make a good fist of a finals push until the end of the season.
They are normally very hard to beat at home and have won 5, lost 3 and drawn 1 of their 9 matches at Ausgrid Stadum this year. The 3 losses have all been by 1 goal.

Melbourne Heart have become the enigma of this years competition. Riding high 8 games ago of the back of 5 consecutive wins, they have failed to win in their last 7 and only scored 6 goals in the process. They completely dominated the Mariners a month ago but lost in the last few minutes to a sucker punch. They were then good value for a draw against Brisbane and last week had the better of the the match in the local Derby but failed to convert 1 or 2 guilt edged chances albeit the Victory goalkeeper had a very solid match.
They are yet to win a match without Captain Fred this season and he will be absent again for this one.
The big bonus for them last week was the amazing debutante performance of Craig Goodwin. He deserves all the plaudits that have been thrown his way especially considering the massive hole he had to fill in the absence of Aziz Behich. The left fullback position is pivotal to Hearts' formation it seems and they have lost nothing with the introduction of this bloke.

Injuries/Replacements;

Newcastle are virtually at full strength here despite losing Ben Kantarovski to the Olyroos. His absence certainly posed no problems for them last week.

Conversely Melbourne Heart are nowhere near full strength. Captain Fred and vice captain  Matt Thompson are still missing and that is a lot of influence to lose.
They also have 3 players with the Olyroo squad though I'm not sure the affect was dramatic in the last performance against their cross town rival.
The bonus from that match was the game time given to the likes of Shroj, Colossimo and Reid. They should strip fitter for this match and between them they have immense experience, which goes some way to replacing that lost through the absence of Fred & Thompson.
Some talk of Kristian Sarkies missing this one. His dead ball skills could be missed if he is absent.
Brazilian Maycon coming in though could be beneficial. He has had precious little game time this season but has been effective in the past coming off the bench.

Prediction;

Hard to tip against a Newcastle side who seem to be coming good at the right time and they should be full of confidence for this clash.
Interesting to see the intense passion between fans and Players last week at the SFS after they scored 1 or 2 of their goals. Emotions obviously run deep at the club which can only be a positive for them in their current form. They meet their opposition at an opportune time, still vulnerable with a disjointed line up and facing a road trip that many teams find too daunting.
Melbourne Heart need to play with a lot more intensity than they did in their last away match in Wellington, a similarly fatal road trip for most teams.
Without Fred (and Thompson) it is hard to see them coming away with 3 points here but if they happen to regain their scoring touch in this game there is no doubt they will be competitive. Just not sure this is the game where they can turn their fortunes around.
I'm tipping Newcastle to just have too much momentum and intensity for Heart here.

Bet Advice;

Long term betting strategy dictates that $2.20 is good enough odds to take on Newcastle in a Home game context. If you can still get that it would be a bonus.
Melbourne Heart aren't good value for an away team though they are drifting to somewhere near it with some betting agencies. Doubtful they will get to the $3.75 required though.
Jeremy Brockie back in scoring form and is now the teams top scorer with a great return of 8 goals considering he is ostensibly a wide player. He just might be worth an investment as 1st goal scorer. He had scored all his goals at home until last week and now back to his favoured stomping ground he could really run amok!




Sydney FC v Perth Glory 11/2 Sydney Football Stadium  6:45 PM, Sat 11 Feb 2012

Sydney FC 2.30
Draw 3.25
Perth Glory 2.95

Head to Head;

All Time- Sydney 9, Perth 4, Draws 7

This Fixture- Sydney 4, Perth 2, Draws 2

This Season- Sydney 1 Perth 1 (18/01 Campelltown)
                      Perth 0 Sydney 1 (12/11/11)


Form Guide;

Sydney suffered their worst defeat of the season last week without doubt. Losing by 3 goals at home as favourite will have done nothing whatsoever for team morale. They have only won 1 of their last 9 matches and conceded 22 goals in the process.They now have the 2nd worst home record in the League with only Adelaide more profiligate in defence (only 1 more).
Possibly more concerning is their Home form at the SFS this season, whereby they have conspired to lose 5 of 9 matches with 2 draws. And the 2 wins have been against Cellar Dwellars Gold Coast both by a solitary goal.

In complete contrast Perth come into this clash with oodles of confidence off the back of 8 unbeaten games including 5 wins. Incredibly they have scored 11 goals in their last 2 outings and only conceded once. Form doesn't come much hotter than that! They were irrepressible last Sunday against Gold Coast and could quite easily have added to an impressive 4-0 scoreline. They have won 3 of their last 4 Away matches which can only add to the positivity for this clash.

Injuries/Replacements;

Sydney have lost right full back Sebastain Ryall to the Olyroos and have lost key Striker Mark Bridge for this one. That won't help an attacking lineup that is struggling to match what the oppositon can conjure up in recent times.
Jamie Coyne comes in for Ryall.
Brett Emerton returning is a big bonus though. His energy was missed against Newcastle and he should ensure that Sydney will at least keep going to the bitter end in this one.
I'd expect young Winger Joel Chianese to get more game time in this one. He was pretty impressive in his little cameo debut last week, adding some pace and penetration on the left. It's a bit much to ask in expecting him to be a game breaker here though.

Perth are at full strengh and actually have more players at their disposal than last week with a couple returning from injuries.

Prediction;

I just can't look past Perth winning this and rate them the best bet of the round.  There are heaps of positives for them and far too many negatives for the home team in this one.
If Sydney can turn their loss around from last week it is possible they could get something out of the game but on current form their is just no comparison between these 2.

Bet Advice;


Once again though long term betting strategy dictates that you back Sydney here at the reasonable home team odds. Head to Head history supports them too but I can't recommend backing them and good luck if you do!
Perth aren't great odds for an away team but on current form that quote looks generous.
Liam Miller for Perth looks the best value bet for first goal scorer @ $15. He did so last week and is one of the more creative players in their side.





Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar 12/2 Westpac Stadium 2:00 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012

Wellington Phoenix 2.55
Draw 3.35
Brisbane Roar 2.55

Head To Head;

All Time- Wellington 2, Brisbane 8, Draws 2.

This Fixture- Wellington 2, Brisbane 2, Draws 2

This Season- Wellington 2 Brisbane 0 (14/12/11)
                      Brisbane 1 Wellington 1 (13/11/11)


Form Guide;

Wellington probably face their sternest test this season but do so off a string of 4 consecutive wins and a new found ability to win Away from home (3 in a row). At Home they are always that little bit more adventurous and often respond to their crowds urgings particularly in second halfs. At home this season they have played 10, won 6, Lost 3 and drawn only 1. In that time they have scored 22 goals, averaging 2 goals per game, against a return of only 7 goals away from home. They have scored 11 goals in their last 6 games and conceded only 4.

Brisbane travel across the Tasman off one of their best wins of the season, toppling the ladder leaders and ending their 15 match unbeaten streak. They played with stunning intensity in the first stanza there, and whilst conceding most of the possession in the second half they produced a reslilient defensive performance which should only add to the confidence today. That was actually their first away win in 8 games and only their 3rd win from their past 12 performances.

Injuries/Replacements;

Wellington have to do without Manny Muscat today who is suspended. He has been an important player for them this season, with his overlapping runs from right back and determination in defence. Probably one of, if not the most improved players in the A-League and his presence would have been precious today, linking with the dangerous Ifill on the right in attack and preventing attacking raids from the left in the shape of Broich and the young Fitzgerald. Vince
Lia comes in for him but it's unlikely he can provide Wellington with quite the same potency in an attacking sense.

Brisbane couldn't be in better shape personnel wise. Broich and Henrique should be firing on all cylinders now and just about every player in their squad is available for selection. Even Mitch Nicholls comes back from Olyroo duty due to an international suspension, and he too might get some game time.

Prediction;

A very difficult task to separate these 2 teams, who are both probably in peak form right now. It may well come down to who scores first in reality. If It's Wellington then the home team might be too good as they will look to counter attack from there on in and they do finish off their matches very well in the 2nd half at home. If it's Brisbane though I think they can go and win the match because the game will open up and they can pick off Wellington again given those circumstances. Apparently Ricky Herbert is looking to starve Brisbane of possession in this game to stem their attacking threat. How well they do that will probably decide the outcome.
I'm tipping Brisbane to score first and go on to win an entertaining match but this one could go either way. The loss of Muscat could be crucial and a Brisbane team at full strength will have no excuse for not coming away with the 3 points. This clash rarely produces a draw so I'm going to plump for Brisbane on that basis. There is a lot at stake though, with the winner a very realistic chance of reeling in the League Leaders in the coming weeks. On that score you just wonder whether there will be a winning outcome. Both teams could just cancel each other out being at the top of their respective games.

Bet Advice;

Long term betting strategy once again dictates that you back the home team here, who in actual fact are great value, being in such great form, and possibly the most potent team in the Competition on thier own turf . That same advice has already been successful 3/3 times this round so should be taken seriously regardless of where your sentiments lie. And a draw historically appears unlikley which improves the percentages for you slightly.
Either side winning by 1 goal could be a good option and the likes of Mohammed Adnan for Brisbane (free kick taker and good in the air) and Tim Brown (breaking from midfield and also good in the air) are probably the best value bets to be first scorer.







Gold Coast United v Adelaide United 12/2 4:30 PM, Sun 12 Feb 2012

Gold Coast United 2.15
Draw 3.25
Adelaide United 3.20

Head To Head;

All Time- Gold Coast 3, Adelaide 2, Draws 4

This Fixture- Draws 3 (only games played in Qld) 0-0, 0-0, 1-1.

This Season- Adelaide 0 Gold Coast 3 (16/12/11)
                      Adelaide 2 Gold Coast 1 (11/11/11)

Form Guide;

Both sides are really struggling for form coming into this clash.
Gold Coast probably put in their worst performance last week against an impressive Perth side who really could have won a lot easier than even the 4-0 scoreline suggested.
Prior to that the Queenslanders did well to get out of jail in the final moments against Melbourne Victory in Hobart but it seems it did nothing for the morale of the team after last weeks haemorrhage.
It is now 8 matches since they won a game but on the positive side they have only twice at home this season, not too bad for a side languishing at the foot of the table.

Adelaide are not faring much better of late losing 3 of their last 4 matches and it is now 7 matches since they last won. Perhaps significantly though their away form is much better than their home form. They have only lost one of their last 7 and that was a very frustrating and narrow 3-2 defeat to the Central Coast where they led at half time and were clearly the best side at that point. Possibly a worry that they have only won 1 of those last 7 with 5 draws but this is possibly their best chance for a while of reaping a 3 point away game dividend.


Injuries/Replacements;

Gold Coast are decimated with injuries coming into this clash with a number of key players likely to miss the game or at least have bit parts in it. James Brown deinitely out, Rigters is doubtful and so is their key midfielder Jungschlager. Rozic in defence might be a casualty also.

I'm not aware of any major problems in the Adelaide camp so they get every chance here to exploit a Gold Coast team down on Personnel and confidence.

Prediction;

History certainly says a draw but I'm thinking that Gold Coast have too many key players out and/or struggling for fitness. Adelaide need to find some form and could well do so with the added lure of an Asian Champions League campaign luming if they can beat an Indonesian side on Thursday. That should give them added motivation for this one. If they can't do the job here in the shape of 3 points, then their top 6 aspirations are dead and buried. They have a very decent player roster and only need to rise to the occasion here.

Bet Advice;

Conversely Gold Coast are the long term betting strategy candidates being the price they are as a home team. Personally I think the best they can manage is a draw but that is why they are at generous odds in reality.
Sergio Van Dyke possibly the best option to score first for Adelaide. He is reasonably prolific, takes penalties and occasionally bursts the net with a fierce free kick. Only $5.50 on offer but that is good enough for me.

Can The Mariners Do A Devon Loch?

It’s not every day that I can say that watching the A-League’sTV coverage has helped me to get a bellyful of laughs!
Let’s face it, football can be a very tense kind of game for supporters of one team or the other, or for those who have invested some of their hard-earned in the result. If you’ve backed Team A to win and they are leading Team B by one goal with minutes to go, and Team A’s goal is under siege, you’re more likely to be reaching for the
heart pills than crying tears of laughter.

I personally have not had too many laughs watching the A-League – oh, alright then, I will admit that witnessing the occasional Liam Reddy clanger or seeing one hapless defender score two own goals in one game this season has given me the giggles – but I must thank Fox Sport’s coverage of last weekend’s game between the Brisbane Roar and Newcastle Jets for the biggest laugh I’ve had for ages over sport.

With the Roar trailing 1-0 deep into the second half, commentator Robbie Slater was asked if he thought the Central Coast Mariners, eleven points clear of the Roar, could still find a way to lose the “minor” premiership. Slater said he didn’t think so, and then said that the question reminded him of a comment made by Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson not so long ago when he was asked a similar question. I can’t remember whether the question referred to Ferguson’s own team, but it matters not. What mattered was Ferguson’s reply, which was along the lines of “they’d have to do a Devon Lock to lose it from here”.

That intrigued me.

Who the hell was Devon Lock? Was he perhaps some Pommy athlete who ran out of puff in a distance race, or
something along those lines? I certainly could not remember anyone of that name.

In fact, the reference intrigued me enough to go googling the name 'Devon Lock" when the game had finished and I’d turned off the TV. A few mouse clicks later it turned out it was not “Devon Lock”, but “Devon Loch” that Ferguson had referred to. And Devon Loch was not a person, but a horse. A horse which had lost the Grand National Steeplechase – the United Kingdom’s top race over the jumps – way back in 1956 in sensational circumstances.

Then it was off to Youtube for me...

Now, maybe it’s because I am such a HUGE fan of the English royal family that what I found there made me laugh like a drain. In fact, the more times I see it, the funnier it seems to get. Here it is, for those who share a somewhat cruel sense of humour that has no problem laughing at other people’s misfortunes.

Oh, and if you happen to think that Australian jumps racing is dangerous, or potentially cruel to horses, you might need to get a load of the extended replay of the race that is also available on Youtube, rather than the shortened version accessible with this link.

Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62fPLtL8h7s