Two mouth watering clashes this weekend that will decide who plays in the ultimate game next weekend.
On paper it would seem that match will be between Brisbane Roar & Western Sydney Wanderers which would end up at Suncorp Stadium next week. Not only did they finish 1-2 on the table, being the only two teams left in the semi-finals with a positive goal difference. They also had last week off to freshen up, and neither team had to travel to Asia during the week for Asian Champions League games, as did their respective opponents Melbourne Victory & Central Coast Mariners.
There is no doubt in my mind that neither MV or CCM will upset either of the home teams this weekend if they don't improve their performances of last week, despite both winning. Melbourne Victory in particular were second best against Sydney FC, and Central Coast were hardly convincing against an Adelaide United team that has proved rather 'toothless' the last month or so.
Despite my negativity about both the outsiders there are still definite reasons both can win, and to be honest I find it very difficult to suggest that either games will be won by the favoured teams in normal time. Given that assumption if you want to have a bet on both those teams I would take the $1.83 available on Sportsbet for it being being the Grand Final matchup.
Western Sydney Warriors v Central Coast Mariners (Saturday 6.30pm Parramatta Stadium);
This is last years Grand Final replay and CCM will be hoping the result there of 0-2 is a good omen for them in regards to repeating the dose. This CCM side barely resembles the team of last season though and this will be their first final in charge for coach Ian Moss.
WSW come off an emphatic 5-0 win on Tuesday night against a weak Chinese side which enabled them to reach the round of 16. They are the only 1 of our 3 teams in Asia to progress this year past the group stage, though both CCM and Melbourne Victory took it right to the wire, with MV very unfortunate to miss out on getting there on goal difference. WSW also have the advantage here of having an extra day to rest and prepare with CCM having played Wednesday night and having to travel to Asia and back.
WSW also come into this match winning three of their last four games, and three in a row. CCM have won two of their last four matches, both in the A-League, but lost their two midweek games in Asia. So they don't come into this game in the best of form and also have the fatigue factor to deal with.
It is very hard to dismiss them entirely because they harbor such resilience and team spirit, which has been evident many times in the last few seasons. Being the underdog will definitely suit them as they are likely to soak up a lot of pressure and will most likely plot a counter attacking style of play, employed so successfully against Brisbane two weeks ago. That wasn't the case against Adelaide last week where they were the home team and only just edged the possession stats against their opponents. Obviously playing away from home is rarely an asset but it just might suit them here playing in front of a big vocal crowd and spoiling the party, as they did last season in the Final.
WSW do hold all the aces though and are most likely to win. I think one of the big reasons for their recent improvement has been the return to form of Youssouf Hersi, who was their key player last season I believe. Up front young Juric has strung a few games together now and he is just about ready to be a match winner. This team lacked a good central forward last year which ultimately might have cost them the A-League title. They have good depth in their ranks, and their squad of players has been well utilised this season, thus any player can be called on here to play their part if required. That helps when you have been playing a lot of matches in a short time. They might also use last years final loss as motivation, so complacency need not be an issue.
WSW should win this match but I'm not entirely convinced it will be in normal time. Surely though they triumph if it goes the extra (time) distance, given what CCM have had to endure re travel this week? Their $1.70 or thereabouts win quote is way too short for my liking, and well short of the $2.10 average required, so I personally will sit this one out
Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory (Sunday Suncorp Stadium 5.00pm)
There are many positives here for Brisbane, least of all the factor that MV have not beaten them at this venue since the 2009-2010 A-League season. They come off a two week hiatus which should be a positive given the three games MV have had to play in that period. They also come off a loss to CCM at Suncorp which should be the wake up call needed for them to produce their best. I say the two week break should be a positive but on the other hand MV are battle hardened and have improved massively the last month or so, unbeaten in four games, winning three of them.
The other problem I see for Brisbane is conversely one of their greatest assets in controversial but prolific goal scoring striker Besart Berisha. He has been in and out of the team all season and to my mind the team hasn't played their best football when he has been present. That is largely due to his lack of game time and having to fit back into a team that has had to play differently in his absence. No doubt he is a big game player and just might have a blinder here, but I just see his presence as a possible negative, especially given he hasn't played at this level for a month or so. I doubt that Brisbane would start him on the bench so they will be dearly hoping he is on song. Quite ironic too that he will play for MV next season, a factor I don't expect will weigh on his mind.
Melbourne Victory are under little pressure here because they aren't expected to win. That is a little odd because they are arguably the best performed side coming into the finals series, and have improved more the past month or so than any other team. The ACL has really steeled this team rather than left them vulnerable, after what was a very creditable draw in Asia the other night with four of their best players missing. They have a lot to play for here not having progressed in Asia and to get back to that competition this year they have to win the title. They played Tuesday night so have an extra day break compared to CCM in the other semi and have the luxury of calling on Mark Milligan, James Troisi, Gui Finkler & Pablo Contreras who didn't travel during the week. All four have been in great form of late and Milligan is inspirational as captain and Troisi has been their best finisher this year. Finkler has been their go two man late in games scoring some crucial goals and has been very good from set pieces. Contreras had been pretty woeful at the back for large parts of this season but has really found his best form when required.
I just think there is enough there to suggest an upset is on the cards and the odds are definitely right for an away team playing a penultimate finals match.
From a betting viewpoint I'm not sure what to suggest here but I'm keen to take MV to win in some form. They are $5.25 on Sportsbet to win in Normal Time or you could take the $3.98 no bet option and recoup your funds, if it is a draw at the end of 90 minutes (+ injury time). If Melbourne Victory do win that is still better odds than the $3.75 price that you need to take historically about an away team win. Sportsbet are also offering $4 about a draw in this match which is better than the average offer for that bet type, but still slightly shy of the $4.10 average required. In this case $4 could be deemed adequate though given the semi final status.
